Intel, Arm and Marvell have each been cut in half since June. Just one is a stock I would buy right now.

Intel (INTC +7.71%), Arm holds (ARM +4.74%)And Marvell Technology (MRVL +5.73%) the record closes in June. Five months later, each share is worth less than half its value.

Intel closed at $58.27 on November 4, down about 59% from $140.94, its June 22 closing high. Arm finished that day at $191.80, about 56% below its June 18 closing high, and Marvell finished at $159.80, about 50% below its June 4 closing level.

All three fell between about 4% and 7% on November 4th alone, then fell further on November 5th. Investors were wondering whether Democrats’ midterm victories could slow the construction of artificial intelligence data centers, especially after Texas elected a governor who campaigned on a moratorium on new data centers.

Falls this steep can make all three seem like bargains. But every stock is still up more than 40% in 2026. And only one of them expects its sales growth to continue to accelerate, even though its stock has become cheaper.

Marvell is the one, and it’s the only one of the three I would buy right now.

Image source: Getty Images.

The Intel PC problem

Intel’s third quarter was strong, with revenue up 21% year over year. The problem lies in the outlook given on October 29. Intel expects non-GAAP (adjusted) earnings of $0.25 per share for the fourth quarter, less than half of the $0.52 earned in the third quarter.

PCs are the main reason for this. Rising memory prices have driven up the price of new PCs, and Intel expects revenue from its PC chip segment to fall more than 20% from the third quarter. Its financial director, David Zinsner, estimates that this weakness will persist at least until mid-2027.

Yes, demand for Intel’s server chips still exceeds what it can supply. But at around $54, Intel stock trades at around 36 times expected 2026 earnings and around 30 times expected 2027 earnings.

Is the slowdown in Arm royalties taken into account?

Arm reported its second quarter of fiscal 2027 (the three months ended September 30) on the evening of November 4. Revenue climbed 27% year over year to $1.44 billion, and its adjusted earnings per share rose 33% to $0.52.

The number I would track most closely, however, is royalty revenue (the fee Arm receives for each Arm-based chip shipped by its partners). Royalties rose just 8% from a year earlier to $670 million, a sharp slowdown from 22% growth in the fiscal first quarter. Arm said memory prices hit the smartphone market and offset some of its gains elsewhere.

Licensing revenue, however, jumped 50% to $773 million, and management views licensing as an important leading indicator of future royalty growth.

Of course, that might turn out to be true. But at around $170, Arm stock trades at around 56 times its expected earnings for the next fiscal year (ending March 2028). Even after a roughly 60% decline, investors paying that price are likely counting on royalties to accelerate again.

Marvell sales accelerate

Marvell’s numbers go the other way. Its revenue growth has increased every quarter of fiscal 2027 so far, from 28% year-over-year in the first quarter to 37% in the second (through August 1). On Nov. 2, Marvell said third-quarter revenue was in line with its guidance of $3.15 billion, now within 2% on both counts. That would be about 52% higher than last year’s quarter. Additionally, Marvell’s August guidance called for adjusted earnings per share of $1.10, up about 45% from $0.76 a year earlier.

The same day, Marvell agreed to buy an optical parts manufacturer Lumentum Fund (LITE +5.67%) in an all-stock transaction that values ​​Lumentum at approximately $115 billion, including debt. Lumentum shareholders would get 4.5 Marvell shares for each Lumentum share, which would allow current Marvell shareholders to own approximately two-thirds of the combined company. Closing is expected in the first half of 2028, pending shareholder and regulatory approval.

At around $141, Marvell stock trades at around 19 times expected earnings for fiscal 2028 (ending January 2028), based on Marvell’s business alone.

Which one would I buy?

Intel’s server chips and Arm’s licensing businesses are doing well. But Intel’s profits are expected to fall sharply this quarter, and Arm’s royalty growth just slowed to 8%. At current prices, I think both stocks are still too expensive for these issues.

Marvell is the only one of the three whose latest forecasts predict a further acceleration in sales growth. And based on expected earnings for next year, its price-to-earnings ratio is about a third of Arm’s.

Ultimately, I think Marvell stock is worth buying here, perhaps little by little, as the Lumentum deal nears its conclusion.