WASHINGTON (AP) — The midterm elections already national politics turned upside down. Due to the number of state governments that have switched Under Democratic control, they could also change how the United States elects its president.
The sudden blue tint of so many additional states opens the door to enough states joining 18 other Democratic-led states in a deal that would effectively neutralize the states. the Electoral College. That would turn the battle for the presidency into a battle for the most votes nationwide, rather than concentrating candidates in a half-dozen swing states.
States that have joined the so-called National Interstate Compact for the Popular Vote represent 222 Electoral College votes. Once the number of States involved reaches the 270 needed to win the presidencythis arrangement would effectively require a candidate to win the national popular vote to obtain a majority of the Electoral College.
It’s unclear whether the strategy has the support of all newly elected lawmakers and governors in key states, and it’s almost certain it will draw legal challenges from conservative groups. If the bill succeeds, it could end up before the Supreme Court, with a conservative majority.
Still, Democratic victories for governor and in state legislatures make the plan’s supporters optimistic. In Tuesday’s election, Democrats won full control in six states, accounting for 71 electoral college votes: Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Minnesota, with its 10 electoral votes, had joined the pact while previously under full Democratic control in 2023.
Some governors express support while others are noncommittal
“We can get rid of it,” said the new Democratic Governor David Crowley said about the Electoral College, now that he has a legislature in his party’s hands for the first time in 16 years. “I’m interested in having those conversations with the state legislature.”
Over the weekend, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiroa likely contender for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028, said he would like his new Democratic legislature to take steps to make the Electoral College obsolete.
“I think the national popular vote makes sense. My view on that hasn’t changed,” Shapiro said on a liberal podcast. “I will work with lawmakers to determine what the right mechanism is to move forward on this.”
If Pennsylvania and Wisconsin supported the pact, it would take just two of the three remaining Democratic parties, Arizona, Michigan and Nevada, to reach the 270 threshold and make winning the Electoral College contingent on winning the popular vote.
But not all Democratic governors are on board with this initiative, at least for the moment. In a television interview Monday, Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs declined to say whether she favored her state joining the pact.
“Look, I can tell you that after talking with voters across the state, the priority is to address affordability issues, continue to find ways to reduce costs, secure the border, protect our water and continue to protect public education,” said Hobbs, whose office declined to comment further.
Nevada’s previous experience on this issue also serves as a warning to advocates.
In 2019, then-Democratic Governor Steve Sisolak vetoed measure this would have committed Nevada to joining the compact after it was passed by Democratic majorities in both houses of the legislature. Sisolak said at the time that the popular vote idea would diminish the influence of less populous states like Nevada in national elections.
Democrats passed another measure to join the pact in 2023, but failed to bypass the state’s Republican governor at the time. The new administration of its new Democratic governor, Aaron Forddid not respond to requests for comment, nor did Michigan’s new Democratic governor, Jocelyne Benson.
Two presidents 16 years apart lost the popular vote
The idea of moving to a national popular vote gained traction among Democrats after Republican George W. Bush won the 2000 presidential election by edging out Democrat Al Gore in the Electoral College, even while losing the popular vote. It accelerated after the Republicans won the White House again. like this in 2016 with the victory of Donald Trump over Democrat Hillary Clinton.
As part of the National Popular Vote plan, the candidate who wins the popular vote nationwide would receive the Electoral College votes of the states that joined the pact.
There’s nothing inherently partisan about the idea, said Patrick Rosenstiel, a Minnesota Republican strategist and senior consultant to the popular vote movement. At times, Republican-majority legislative chambers, including the Oklahoma Senate, have passed proposals to join the compact, but the bills have gone no further.
He said his own presidential vote was essentially meaningless because Minnesota had reliably voted Democrats in presidential elections for decades, leaving him with no say in the outcome and direction. the vast majority of candidates’ attention elsewhere.
“I don’t believe I’ve ever played a significant role in the outcome of a presidential election,” he said. “The national popular vote forces campaigns to focus on every compelling voter in every constituency across the country. »
Rosenstiel said the national popular vote campaign has been ramping up to advance the issue when new Democratic state legislatures convene early in the year. He said the organization has already found legislative sponsors.
Pact could raise constitutional concerns
The Republicans no longer have power to stop the change in Democratic-controlled states, but some conservative groups are ready to fight. The change “disenfranchises state voters if enacted, violates the United States Constitution, and undermines the intent of America’s founders,” analysts at the America First Policy Institute, a pro-Trump think tank, wrote in September.
There is also no guarantee that the proposals will be adopted. Derek Muller, a law professor at Notre Dame, skeptical of the idea, said some might have doubts now that the symbolic protest vote has become a real possibility. He said there would also be constitutional issues that would likely lead to legal challenges.
The Constitution allows states to hold elections, and the Supreme Court, in a case from voters seeking a replacement for Trump in 2016, ruled that states can require voters vote for the presidential candidate to whom they are committed.
Muller flagged several potential legal obstacles to the popular vote plan. States have the power to conduct their elections, but they cannot set rules that will determine the outcome of elections in other states. Additionally, each state runoff is different, and some could potentially have third-party candidates who would not appear elsewhere, leading to the dilution of the power of a vote for a Democrat or Republican in one state over another.
This could violate the 14th Amendment’s requirement that everyone be afforded “equal protection of the laws.” The U.S. Supreme Court also could rule that states cannot enter into a compact to change one of their core constitutional obligations unless they obtain congressional approval.
“I think the Supreme Court will be interested,” Muller said.
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Bauer reported from Madison, Wisconsin. Associated Press writers Marc Levy in Harrisburg, Pa., Jacqueline GaNun in Lansing, Mich., Jessica Hill in Las Vegas and Mikella Schuettler in Phoenix contributed to this report.
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