China is leading the world in moving away from fossil fuels, and the rest of the world – including the US – must now follow, former US Secretary of State John Kerry has told the Guardian, as Cop watchers wonder exactly how China will approach this year’s climate summit.
As Cop31 opens – this year’s climate conference is taking place in Turkey – there is much speculation about whether China will finally take on the leadership role it has long avoided. In its latest “five-year plan” adopted in March 2026, China pledged for the first time to “actively participate in and lead global climate governance.” Cop31 could provide the first indications that Beijing is ready to put this rhetoric into practice, something it has always been reluctant to do.
Green energy is a critical part of the export engine that has kept China’s sluggish economy on track post-pandemic. Its export success contrasts with its failure to significantly boost overall domestic consumption, a structural weakness that has constantly vexed leaders.
In 2025, clean technology exports exceeded $220 billion and are expected to grow further this year; the world’s largest emitter is now the world’s leading provider of clean energy technologies. China accounts for about 85% of the production capacity of the solar battery supply chain and 80% of that of lithium-ion batteries, and by 2025, almost 75% of electric cars were manufactured there.
Smart moves by China today would position it as a pillar of a future electro-state world order, persuade rivals to cooperate, and consolidate its influence in the Global South.
Meanwhile, other countries, including the United States under Donald Trump, have fallen far behind. Kerry said they would lose out economically – and put the climate at even greater risk – unless they, too, adopted low-carbon energy and rapid electrification. “The only country that has accelerated enormously is China. The rest of the world is stumbling while Mother Nature sends us stronger signals every week, every day,” he said.
“(China) suddenly realized that it was far too dependent on other countries’ oil and gas, and it decided that it needed to be independent. Other countries, since the war in Iran and since the disruption of the Strait of Hormuz, have made a similar decision and they are moving independently. There has been a massive increase in the deployment of renewable energy. Thank you, Donald Trump.”
For autocratic states without free and fair elections, seeing the economic benefits reaped by China would be an incentive to embrace low-carbon growth, he added.
“They will see where the market is going and recognize where the cheaper alternatives are. Even they can read a spreadsheet and understand where the costs are exorbitant (in the fossil fuel space) and where the best deals are possible,” Kerry said. “Currently, renewable energy combined with storage, as well as transitional gas, is cheaper and more efficient than simply relying on fossil fuels. »
He added: “The market has made its decision and globally it is moving towards electrons and electrostate status. People are moving towards electricity and they are going to try to do it as cleanly as possible. That is the choice that I see being implemented in many different places. It is unstoppable.”
China has already said it wants Cop31 to discuss the free flow of green technologies amid “escalating” geopolitical conflicts – widely seen as a reference to US and EU tariffs on products such as Chinese electric vehicles and solar products.
Li Shuo of the Asia Society Policy Institute (ASPI) puts it this way: “In a world where climate action was once seen as a constraint on growth but is now increasingly a driver of it, China faces a singular question: Will it assume a leadership role not out of obligation, but out of self-interest?
China, a country of “action and go-getter”
The summit presidency promised that this COP would be a Conference of “implementation and acceleration” – and when it comes to green transition, no country has implemented or accelerated as much as China. As a result, emissions have been on a “stable or declining” trend since March 2024, according to Carbon Brief’s analysis.
Beijing views the energy transition as “essential to economic modernization and energy security, with significant implications for international influence,” said Kevin Tu of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. The wars in Ukraine and the Middle East and their effects on oil and gas supplies have only strengthened this position.
The conflicts have also highlighted the geopolitical implications of a global transition to green energy. In the fossil fuel era, the designation of the U.S. dollar as the global trading currency for oil gave Washington “what has been called the exorbitant privilege of being the global lender of last resort,” said Isabel Hilton, founder of the environmental media outlet China Dialogue.
after newsletter promotion
“Without it, America’s position in the world looks weaker, and when you add China’s dominance in the supply of clean technologies and the supply chains that produce them, America’s dominance looks even more vulnerable.”
Meanwhile, President Xi Jinping describes China as a “player and go-getter working for the cause of global development” and state media frequently features Chinese renewable energy projects in countries from Indonesia to Pakistan and Kenya. The value of green energy deals under China’s Belt and Road Initiative in the first half of 2026 has already exceeded the total for all of 2025, a recent analysis showed.
These countries could be useful allies if China manages to introduce the issue of tariffs into the negotiations. “China will likely find support from Brazil, India, South Africa and other developing countries concerned about the costs and market access effects of climate-related trade measures,” Tu said.
The need for trust
China has generally refrained from political ambition or agenda-setting at forums such as the COP. Its attitude towards plans to set a global electrification target has been ambivalent, even though it could easily achieve it, according to ASPI’s Kate Logan. China partly has an aversion to prescriptive external goals, but it also tries to reconcile the divergent interests of its southern partners.
Yixian Sun, professor of sustainable governance at the University of Bath, said: “I still think there is a disconnect between Chinese policymakers’ views on the role China can play in global climate governance and international expectations about the influence China should exert. »
If the world wants China to play a leadership role, the environment must change and greater trust must be built, he says. “They have to be willing to accept China’s leadership, and I don’t think that’s the case, especially for the northern countries.”
Analysts will be watching China’s actions on climate finance commitments and support for a “just transition” – a framework designed to secure workers’ rights and livelihoods as it transitions away from fossil fuels.
They will also look for signals on Beijing’s candidacy for Cop33 in 2028; officials are reportedly trying to decide whether hosting would be beneficial.
For now, Logan said, “China would settle for a cop who wouldn’t necessarily produce anything monumental, but would come out with a relatively cooperative outcome…so no major drama.” »
Gn world
