Nvidia is down 30% from its peak. History says this is what happens next.

Since the all-time high reached about a month ago, Nvidia (NVDA -5.35%) lost 30% of its value and lost its status as the most valuable company in the world.

This isn’t the first time Nvidia stock has fallen. Based on its historical performance, here’s what’s likely to happen next.

The linchpin of AI

It’s hard to believe that just four years ago, Nvidia was a relatively obscure tech company making graphics processing units (GPUs) primarily for the video game and crypto mining markets. But when the generative artificial intelligence (AI) revolution arrived, it had the proprietary technology to power that software, ready and waiting, and it provided the basis for almost all successful AI developments.

Image source: Nvidia.

Amid the rapid construction of data centers capable of supporting powerful AI, Nvidia has exploded. Companies like Alphabet And Space exploration technologies are investing billions in AI and data center development, and much of that spending is going to Nvidia. In fact, during SpaceX’s latest earnings conference call, CEO Elon Musk said his company would be “exclusive” to Nvidia because “the Vera Rubin architecture is the best architecture.”

SpaceX also just announced that it has committed to the largest GPU financing deal ever, and since SpaceX uses Nvidia GPUs exclusively, that’s where the money is going.

Tech stocks are falling

There has been a general selloff in tech over the past week as the market digested the results of the midterm elections. THE S&P500which is increasingly weighted in technology since its main components are all technology companies, is down 2.6% since Wednesday, while the even more technology sector Nasdaq Composite is down 3.1%. The market predicts that the new Congress may be more hostile to unfettered AI development than the current one, and several new governors, including Texas Governor-elect Gina Hinojosa, have already announced that they plan to impose moratoriums on data center construction in their states until their legislatures act to put in place more robust protections and regulations.

Nvidia, however, was criticized for a completely different reason: CEO Jensen Huang admitted to having an affair with a woman who is currently under investigation as a suspected Chinese asset. The company and the FBI are investigating, and it is likely that the stock has not bottomed out following this development as of this writing.

The story often rhymes

There are no guarantees about what happens next, especially since the spy case story is both unprecedented for the company and still developing. Meanwhile, Nvidia shares fell like a brick. This is not simply a case of a tech sell-off that should be followed by renewed investor confidence as external headwinds ease. But investors can look to history to get a sense of what’s likely to happen.

Let’s look back at Nvidia’s story over the past five years – the period where it became more important in the tech economy. Nvidia has fallen by at least 20% five times during this period, including the current crisis. Here’s how much it fell each time and where the stock was 12 months later, or for this year, to today:

• From November 19, 2021 to October 14, 2022. Total drop: 66%. 12 months later: increase of 305%.
• From June 18, 2024 to August 7, 2024. Total drop: 27%. 12 months later: increase of 83%.
• J.A. From November 6, 2025 to April 4, 2025. Total drop: 37%. 12 months later: increase of 88%.
• From October 29, 2025 to March 30, 2026. Total circulation: 20%. Gains since: 13%.

In each case, it didn’t take too long for the stock to fully rebound and then rise much, much higher. Over the past five years, including all declines, Nvidia stock has gained more than 500%.

Is the current crisis different? It’s not likely. Nvidia is still at the center of AI development, and even if there are ramifications for Nvidia due to changes in the political landscape or problems for Huang himself due to his affair, the company he co-founded still has strong growth potential.

Currently, Wall Street expects Nvidia to see overall sales growth of 90% this year and 68% next year. It’s possible its revenue growth rate will underperform next year if government barriers to building data centers lead hyperscalers, neoclouds and other tech players to cut orders, but Nvidia remains the AI ​​chips of choice for the largest data center operators. History is on Nvidia’s side, and even if it takes more than 12 months for the company to recover from this correction, it will likely happen eventually.