In 2016, the Rams were 4-5 when they benched Case Keenum and turned the offense over to No. 1 overall pick Jared Goff. He lost all seven of his starts, threw five touchdowns and seven interceptions, and LA finished 4-12. Jeff Fisher was fired with three games remaining, the Rams hired Sean McVay this offseason, and the rest is history.
Two years later, the Ravens were also 4-5 when Lamar Jackson, the last pick of the first round in 2018, replaced the injured Joe Flacco. He won six of his first seven starts and Baltimore won the AFC North before losing to the Chargers in the wild-card round. Jackson only threw five touchdowns, but his running ability transformed everything in the offense.
Same record. Same point in the season. Two completely different results.
And now comes Fernando Mendoza, the No. 1 pick in April’s draft, who inherits a 4-5 Raiders team after Las Vegas traded Kirk Cousins to Minnesota on Tuesday for a third-round pick. Mendoza will make his first start Sunday against the Seahawks, and while it’s tempting to think that nine weeks on the bench may have helped prepare him for what’s next, history suggests it might be a little more complicated than that.
What happens when rookie QBs don’t start until mid-season?
Since 2000, 148 quarterbacks have started at least one game as rookies in the NFL. Only 22 made their first start between weeks 10 and 13, and their collective debuts weren’t pretty.
They completed just 53.8 percent of their passes, averaged 5.8 yards per attempt and threw interceptions on 5.3 percent of their dropbacks — the worst marks of any group. Only five of those 22 won their debuts, and their interception rate was more than 1.6 times higher than the rookies who started in Week 1.
How rookie QBs performed in their first career start, 2000-2025
The first departure took place: | Comp. % | APJ | INT rate | Earn % |
Week 1 | 57.6% | 6.1 | 3.3% | 29.7% |
Weeks 2 to 5 | 58.4% | 6.4 | 3.6% | 25.7% |
Weeks 6 to 9 | 56.3% | 6.4 | 3.8% | 27.3% |
Weeks 10-13 | 53.8% | 5.8 | 5.3% | 22.7% |
Weeks 14-18 | 56.4% | 6.1 | 3.5% | 37.5% |
Source: TruMedia
Of course, circumstances matter. Some quarterbacks sat out because they weren’t ready. Others played because the starter was injured or ineffective. But the takeaway remains: sitting out half a season doesn’t guarantee a smoother transition to the top of the depth chart.
What happened to the teams that turned to rookies?
Five teams had winning records when they turned to a rookie in Weeks 10-13. They were 30-19 overall before the switch and improved to 10-20 afterward. The 17 teams with losing records fared slightly better when they installed a rookie at center, improving their winning percentage from 28.9% to 33.7% – although they still lost twice as often as they won.
Team performance before and after a rookie’s first start, weeks 10-13
The team making its debut had: | QB | Before | After | Win % after |
Winning record | 5 | 30-19 | 10-20 | 33.3% |
Lose the record | 17 | 48-118 | 34-67 | 33.7% |
Total | 22 | 78-137 | 44-87 | 33.6% |
Source: TruMedia
Only three of those 22 teams made the playoffs. The 2011 Texans turned to TJ Yates after injuries to Matt Schaub and Matt Leinart. The 2017 Bills benched Tyrod Taylor for Nathan Peterman despite going 5-4. Peterman threw five interceptions in the first half of his debut, Taylor got the job back by halftime, and Buffalo eventually made the playoffs with Taylor back at center.
Jackson was different. Baltimore initially needed him because Flacco was injured, but he played so well that they stuck with him even after Flacco was healthy. Obviously, this is a model the Raiders would like to follow, but it’s fair to say the organizational infrastructure isn’t there yet.
And then there are the more immediate concerns for the Raiders rookie…
The calendar does Mendoza no favors
Mendoza’s first three starts came against Seattle, Denver and Cleveland, who are also three of the best defenses in the league. The schedule becomes less daunting after a Week 13 bye, although matchups against the Broncos and Chiefs make up two of the Raiders; last four games. So yes.
There’s a bigger problem: Mendoza could play well while losing a lot of games, and Vegas’ first nine weeks help explain why.
The Raiders’ biggest problem isn’t their rookie QB
Kirk Cousins wasn’t the reason for all the losses when Vegas traded him. He had thrown 20 touchdowns and only eight interceptions, and the team was averaging 25.4 points per game. Their passing attack ranks fifth in yards per game and ninth in EPA per play, so Mendoza doesn’t find himself in a winless situation.
The problems lie everywhere else. Las Vegas ranks dead last in yards per carry (2.9), 31st in rushing yards per game (71.3) and 30th in rushing success rate. The defense hasn’t been much better, allowing 35.7 points per game over the last six weeks, including five losses.
That’s a tough combination for any quarterback, future Hall of Famer or new face of the franchise. Kubiak’s system can help, but even the best-designed offense needs a running game that provides some balance.
In June, I wrote that Mendoza may have been the most NFL-ready quarterback in the class, but landed in the least quarterback-friendly situation. My rookie QB model had him completing 61.4% of his passes, averaging 6.6 yards per attempt with a passer rating of 82.1.
Which brings us back to Goff and Jackson.
They started their careers in opposite directions, but both eventually became two of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. Goff didn’t reach his current level until Detroit surrounded him with a strong offensive line, a reliable running game and playmakers (and early on, Ben Johnson). Baltimore built its offense around Jackson’s unique abilities rather than asking him to become something he wasn’t.
The Raiders already have their quarterback of the future. Mendoza has eight games to show what he can do, but whether he goes 0-8, 6-2 or somewhere in between won’t tell us much about the quarterback he could become. His job is to prove that he belongs. The organization’s job is to make sure it has a chance to succeed.
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