AUSTIN, TEXAS – NOVEMBER 26: A gas pump is seen in a vehicle on November 26, 2025 in Austin, Texas.
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Drivers are starting to see a few relief from high fuel prices. For the first time in months, the average price of a gallon of gasoline fell below $4, according to AAA.
The price crossed the $4 threshold on Tuesday and is currently down to a national average of $3.94 for a gallon of regular gasoline. Prices have fallen about 40 cents over the past month, with most of that decline occurring in the past two weeks.
“Many will think the election has something to do with this, but that’s a myth,” Patrick De Haan, head of oil analysis at GasBuddy, wrote in its industry newsletter.
Instead, he continued, gas prices are falling for a more mundane reason: “For now, it’s seasonal change, not politics, that determines relief at the pump.”
Gas prices often decrease in the fall.
One reason: it’s no longer summer, which is the high season for gas. (Fewer people drive in cold weather, AAA emphasizes.) With less demand, there is a little more gas on the market.
Refineries also complete their annual maintenance in late fall. So this adds a little more gas to circulate.
And the blend gasoline available on the market becomes cheaper.
Refineries make two types of gasoline each year: summer and winter blends. The summer mixture produces less smog because it evaporates less quickly in the heat; winter blend helps engines start in freezing weather and uses a little more butane, helping to reduce its cost.
(Normally, the change takes place around September 15. This year, the Environmental Protection Agency and the Energy Department said the change would take place on September 1, citing gasoline prices that have been pushed up by the war in Iran.)
But none of these factors are the main reason for the drop in gas prices, said Jorge León, head of geopolitics at research group Rystad Energy. The main factor is the decline in the price of Brent crude oil, which is now down to around $90 a barrel, and which refineries need to produce gasoline, diesel and jet fuel.
This price is falling because there is a little more oil coming out of the Middle East via pipelines, and because market traders welcomed the intensification of diplomatic efforts between the United States and Iran.
This progress could easily be reversed if the war escalates, León wrote in an email to NPR. “President Trump may consider further military actions as a way to regain leverage in negotiations before Democrats take control of Congress in January. If we see further escalation, much of last week’s drop in oil prices could quickly reverse,” he wrote. The same would apply to gas prices.
Congressional Democrats have expressed support for ending the war in Iran. While they have limited power to do so, they TO DO control the power of the purse and can withhold additional war funding or withhold confirmations from key officials.
For now, if the price of Brent crude continues to fall, prices at the pump could also fall. “However, this does not mean complete ‘normalization,’ a return to the price levels we had before this dispute began,” Jaime Brito, Dow Jones Energy’s executive director of refining and oil markets, wrote in an email to NPR.
To return to pre-Iranian war gas prices, the entire oil supply chain would need to recover. Ships that take long alternative routes to avoid the Strait of Hormuz would have to return to their points of origin and then resume their normal routes, transporting crude oil to refineries. These refineries are expected to produce enough fuel to meet global demand – and depleted supplies. The whole process could take months After a lasting peace agreement.
“Returning to these levels will require a return to normal in production, transportation and refining of the entire global supply chain,” Brito continued.
And while $4 a gallon may seem like a bargain these days, in an update on its website, AAA said that gas prices are still the highest they have ever been for this time of year.
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