Kevin McCarthy’s tenure as Speaker of the House of Representatives was plagued by so much Republican infighting that it ultimately led to his downfall.
Rep. Hakeem Jeffries is campaigning to fill the same position and remains the heavy favorite to become the first black speaker of the House when the new Congress convenes in January. Despite this, the New York Democrat quickly encountered resistance from the progressive flank of the party and has yet to gain support from several progressives.
Many are unhappy with his stance on Israel as well as his private meeting with Jared Kushner, President Donald Trump’s son-in-law, before the midterm elections. That raised the question of whether Jeffries could face internal problems similar to those that sealed McCarthy’s fate.
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Although there is no indication that Jeffries is currently facing a revolt on the scale of the one that forced McCarthy through 15 runoffs in 2023, the resistance offers an early test of whether he can hold together an expanded, ideologically diverse majority.
“The main similarity (with McCarthy) would be that he faces what one might consider the outer ideological frontier of his party in the House, and that was true for McCarthy as well,” said Andy Busch, a professor at the University of Tennessee. News week Tuesday.
McCarthy has faced opposition from far-right Republicans, while Jeffries is “facing some discontent from the more progressive part of the left,” Busch said.
What does the Speaker of the House do?
The Speaker of the House presides over the House of Representatives and is the leader of his or her majority party, helping to set its legislative agenda and guiding bills through the chamber.
This position is particularly powerful because the speaker has significant influence over legislation up for a vote and plays a central role in negotiations with the Senate and White House.
Jeffries faces gradual pushback as president’s candidacy takes shape
The House speaker’s vote will be one of the first tests of whether Democrats can unite after their landslide victory in the midterm elections. But early opposition to Jeffries is already signaling that his path to the job might be tougher than expected.
Jeffries, who currently serves as House Minority Leader, launched his presidential bid on Nov. 4, a day after the “blue wave” of the midterm elections.
There are several notable differences between Jeffries and McCarthy. For one, Democrats have a much larger majority in the House than Republicans in 2023, when McCarthy launched his bid for president. Come January, there will be at least 254 Democrats in the House, compared to 165 Republicans, with some elections still undecided more than a week after the midterm elections.
If the vote to confirm Jeffries as president splits along party lines, Democrats would still hold an advantage of about 80 votes. Jeffries could therefore afford to lose some support within his own party and still win comfortably. McCarthy, by contrast, entered the presidential vote with a much narrower Republican majority, leaving him little room for defections.
“I will be shocked if Hakeem Jeffries doesn’t get the votes by Jan. 3 to win the president’s gavel in the first round,” said David Cohen, a political science professor at the University of Akron. News week. “He is in a stronger position than Kevin McCarthy was in the House Freedom Caucus. Jeffries’ caucus will be much larger than McCarthy’s, allowing for many defections from the progressive and DSA (Democratic Socialists of America) factions of the Democratic Party.”
One of the biggest obstacles McCarthy faced was overcoming deep divisions within his own party. A group of far-right Republicans opposed McCarthy on issues such as government spending, the power of party leaders and distrust of the Republican establishment. Since Republicans held only a slim majority in the House, even a small number of holdouts had significant power, contributing to the 15 ballots it took for McCarthy to become president.
This is where some similarities start to appear. Although Democrats are largely united on the table issues that led to their success in the midterm elections, divisions remain over the direction of the party and how its new majority should govern. Those disagreements have already fueled some resistance to Jeffries, raising questions about whether different factions of the Democratic caucus will line up behind him.
Among those unsure whether or not they will support Jeffries are:
- Claire Valdez, a democratic socialist who will represent New York’s 7th congressional district
- Darializa Avila Chevalier, a democratic socialist who won New York’s 13th congressional district
- Melat Kiros, a progressive Democrat who will represent Colorado’s 1st Congressional District
U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez told reporters this week that she was supporting Jeffries for speaker because he was unopposed, but she also said that Democrats who question whether Jeffries is the best person to lead the House should not be made into “bad guys.”
“I think it’s a completely right and responsible thing to do,” she said. “We cannot call people who arrived two days ago and who ask questions in good faith bad.”
The emerging opposition offers a glimpse of the divisions Jeffries may have to overcome as president, Busch said.
“There’s definitely a divide between Democrats, and I think this could be a taste of things to come,” Busch said. News week. “This won’t be fatal to Jeffries right now. But it could reveal some vulnerabilities in the Democratic coalition in the future.”
Why are far-left Democrats hesitant to support Jeffries?
One of the main sources of progressive opposition to Jeffries is his long-standing support for Israel and his relationship with the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC).
Jeffries maintained close ties with pro-Israel groups and continued to support U.S.-Israeli relations, even as a growing number of House Democrats pushed for tougher conditions regarding U.S. military assistance. In July, Jeffries opposed an attempt to immediately cut military aid to Israel, putting him at odds with House Democrats who supported the measure. Progressive critics also urged Jeffries to distance himself from AIPAC and condemn the group’s spending during the Democratic primaries.
At the same time, Jeffries signaled some change in his position, saying a change of direction was needed in the relationship between the United States and Israel. That requires him to try to balance his traditionally pro-Israel record with a Democratic caucus that has become significantly more divided on Israel, Gaza and the future of U.S. military assistance.
Opposition to Jeffries’ candidacy for president was also evident among the American public. A petition titled “House Democrats: CHOOSE A NEW SPEAKER” launched last week and has already garnered more than 1.1 million signatures.
“In January 2027, members of the newly elected U.S. House of Representatives will choose who will be Speaker of the House, one of the most powerful leadership positions in Congress,” the petition states. “Hakeem Jeffries is simply not the right choice. We believe the speaker should represent Democratic voters, not just the Democratic establishment.”
Despite the backlash, Laurel Harbridge-Yong, a political science professor at Northwestern University, said Jeffries was unlikely to encounter the same problems as McCarthy with 15 ballots.
“I think Democrats want to show that they can govern and will want to resolve disagreements behind the scenes rather than letting them spill over into the House,” Harbridge-Yong said. News week.
What happened to Kevin McCarthy?
McCarthy needed a historic 15 rounds of voting to get the gavel in January 2023, making a series of concessions to holdout conservatives to win their support. Nine months later, those divisions contributed to his downfall after then-U.S. Rep. Matt Gaetz introduced a motion to impeach him over McCarthy’s decision to rely on Democratic votes to avoid a government shutdown. Eight Republicans joined Democrats in a 216-210 vote to oust McCarthy, making him the first Speaker of the House of Representatives in U.S. history to be removed by a motion to resign.
He declined to run for president again and announced in December that he would resign from Congress at the end of that year.
What happens next
House Democrats are scheduled to hold their leadership elections on Nov. 18, when members will vote behind closed doors on their candidate for speaker. Jeffries, who has led House Democrats since 2023 as minority leader, is so far uncontested and is expected to win the nomination.
The deciding vote, however, will take place when the new Congress convenes on Jan. 3, 2027. The full House elects the speaker, meaning Jeffries would need a majority of votes cast for a House nominee.
Republicans chose their leaders for the next Congress on Tuesday, with Rep. Jim Jordan of Ohio elected House minority leader and John Thune of South Dakota re-elected to lead Senate Republicans, this time as minority leader.
Newsweek Reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here.
Contact Newsweek editors about this story: Samantha Beech, Olivier Pritchard and Edward T. Cummins.
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