NFL Week 10 is here, and it’s the first week where all players dealt at the trade deadline will debut with their new teams. Kirk Cousins is back with the Minnesota Vikings, the Jacksonville Jaguars traded for three new defensive players, including Jordan Davis, and the Kansas City Chiefs gave Patrick Mahomes a new wideout in Josh Downs. Which of these additions will be most beneficial for a Super Bowl run?
This Sunday, the New England Patriots and Detroit Lions will face off in Germany, the Vikings and Green Bay Packers will play an important divisional game and the Cincinnati Bengals will look to steal the AFC North lead from the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Which teams should you pick in Week 10 and which should you eliminate? CBS Sports writers Jordan Dajani and Jared Dubin are here to break down the weekend’s biggest games. For clarity, the lines for these picks were taken on November 11 at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Credit to CBS Sports Research
Washington Commanders vs. New York Giants (-2.5) (TNF)
Dajani (Commanders +2.5): The last time these two teams met, they were tied. I’m expecting another close game and I might lean towards the underdog. Washington played hard against the Los Angeles Rams last Sunday and held Matthew Stafford and Co. to 20 points. JJ McCarthy looked solid with his new team, but he actually just became the only quarterback in the last 40 seasons to record a win without a passing touchdown in four straight starts (dating back to last year). He suffered a hip injury against the Philadelphia Eagles, while Cam Skattebo is coming off a hamstring strain. Both will play, but I wonder to what extent these issues might persist. The Commanders are 4-0-1 in a row and 4-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last five games against the New York Giants, so I’ll take the points here in a potential upset. … Prediction: Commanders 21, Giants 20
Dubin (Giants -2.5): I don’t feel particularly comfortable predicting that this Giants team will improve to 6-2-1, but I just don’t believe this version of Washington can be that competitive either. The Commanders can’t move the ball at the moment and have to rely on a passing game that hasn’t been very effective. The Giants haven’t exactly looked like world beaters this year (four of their five wins came in one-score games), and they certainly didn’t look great against the Eagles last week, but I think they can get there on Thursday night. … Prediction: Giants 20, Commanders 14
New England Patriots vs. Detroit Lions (-2.5) (Munich)
Dajani (Lions -2.5): It will take me some time to get over seeing the Patriots lose 45 points to the Packers. Drake Maye threw three interceptions and the team could now be down to their top two running backs. Rhamondre Stevenson is reportedly suffering from a knee injury, while TreVeyon Henderson is said to have experienced an “unusual medical emergency.” That leaves the Patriots with Corey Kiner and Lan Larison as running backs.
As far as the Lions are concerned, the question has never been about Jared Goff’s offense but about Kelvin Sheppard’s defense. Nobody talks about it, but this unit has improved in recent weeks. In fact, during this four-game winning streak, they rank second in points allowed per game (15.5) and yards allowed per game (286.3). Give me the Lions. … Prediction: Lions 28, Patriots 20
Dubin (Lions -2.5): The Patriots’ rapid decline in skill leaves me doubting their ability to compete with the Lions offensively. Especially after New England’s secondary was lit up by the Packers, I can see Detroit having some passing success here, rebounding after a slow last two weeks through the air. And then Jahmyr Gibbs is always likely to leave. Drake Maye is capable of single-handedly carrying an offense against a bad defense, but as Dajani said, Detroit’s defense has been playing better lately. … Prediction: Lions 30, Patriots 21
Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) vs. Atlanta Falcons
Dajani (Chiefs -3.5): I originally wanted to take points here with the Atlanta Falcons, but they just got back from Madrid and sent safety Jessie Bates III to the Jaguars at the trade deadline. The Falcons have been dominated by the Bengals on the road, 34-17, meaning they have lost two straight games by at least 16 points. The Falcons’ run defense will need to be ready for Kenneth Walker III, but I think the key to not getting caught by the hook could be Josh Downs, who the Chiefs acquired this week at the trade deadline. He’s not a threat on the perimeter of the field, but he’s a slot weapon who could spark Patrick Mahomes’ passing game. … Prediction: Chiefs 26, Falcons 21
Dubin (Chiefs -3.5): Atlanta has been pounded on the ground lately (123 or more rushing yards allowed in four of the last five games and 200 or more twice) and is about to hit the Kenneth Walker train. The Chiefs finally added someone who can beat man coverage in Josh Downs, and while it might take him a few weeks to fully get up to speed, he should help them in situational football right away. Additionally, the Chiefs defense has been very good against the run and pass. This line seems too low by several points. … Prediction: Chiefs 27, Falcons 16
Minnesota Vikings vs. Green Bay Packers (-3.5)
Dajani (Vikings +3.5): I’m not sure how long it will take Kirk Cousins to acclimate to his (somewhat) new situation in Minnesota, but I bet this organization and defense are JUICES to add him to the fold. Kyler Murray and Carson Wentz just didn’t pan out, and Cousins actually played some good ball in Vegas. His 20 passing touchdowns rank second in the NFL and his 260.0 passing yards per game rank eighth. Cousins also has chemistry with Justin Jefferson, whose 98.9 receiving yards per game when catching passes from Cousins are the most by a QB-WR duo all-time. This Packers passing attack has been lethal with Jordan Love playing MVP football and Christian Watson and Matthew Golden looking like prime Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, but give me the Vikings for keeping it close. … Prediction: Packers 20, Vikings 17
Dubin (Vikings +3.5): Divisional rematches are usually lower scoring than the first game, so like Dajani, I see a fairly low scoring game here despite the fact that the Packers offense was fireworks and the Vikings just improved their quarterback situation. Both of these defenses are playing extraordinarily well right now, and I think they’ll be able to figure out what each offense is doing. Ultimately, I trust Jordan Love more than Kirk Cousins, so we’ll face the Packers in a close, low-scoring game. … Prediction: Packers 17, Vikings 14
San Francisco 49ers (-3.5) vs. Dallas Cowboys
Dajani (49ers -3.5): This is historically a great rivalry, but this year it’s the Super Bowl favorite against a team that has struggled with all of its opponents. The 49ers have missed the most games due to injuries this season (159), but that hasn’t stopped them from starting 7-1. Brock Purdy’s offense is scoring touchdowns on 37.2% of its drives, which is the fifth-highest rate of any team since 2000! Last week’s win over the Las Vegas Raiders showed just how complete the 49ers are, as they scored two passing touchdowns, two rushing touchdowns and a defensive touchdown. … Prediction: 49ers 30, Cowboys 26
Dubin (49ers -3.5): I don’t care how many talented players the 49ers are missing or the ages of those who are actually healthy: Kyle Shanahan and Brock Purdy are going to cut through this Dallas defense like a hot knife through butter. The Niners are so efficient on a per-play basis, both on the ground and through the air, and the Cowboys make even bad offenses look competent. Dallas might be able to do something on their side of the ball, especially if George Pickens returns to the lineup, but I don’t expect it to be enough to rival what San Francisco is doing on offense. … Prediction: 49ers 34, Cowboys 23
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) (SNF)
Dajani (Bengals -3.5): I keep saying it, this might be the year for Joe Burrow to win MVP. He’s totaled 26 touchdowns in eight games, while Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins have combined for 47 receptions, 693 yards and eight touchdowns in the last three games. The Bengals have scored 34 points in three straight games and 30 points in four straight games. The Steelers beat the Bengals in Pittsburgh in Week 3, 30-27, but the Bengals will even the series Sunday night. Cincy is 7-2 SU and ATS in its last nine primetime home games. … Prediction: Bengals 30, Steelers 24
Dubin (Steel +3.5): I’m taking the Bengals to win, but I like the Steelers to keep things uncomfortably close. Pittsburgh always seems to be in the thick of these divisional games, and the first game was decided by just three points. I think the scoring margin is the same here, but with a slightly lower score, in keeping with the trend of division rematches. … Prediction: Bengals 23, Steelers 20
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Baltimore Ravens (-4.5) (MNF)
Dajani (Chargers +4.5): This is potentially the worst Monday night game ever. A winless team that hasn’t covered the spread since last year versus a spiraling team that’s bringing in a new quarterback. Jacoby Brissett is an upgrade over Joe Fagnano, but how much of an immediate upgrade is he? I don’t have a good read on this game, but I’ll take Jim Harbaugh to keep things close to his brother’s old team. … Prediction: Ravens 20, Chargers 17
Dubin (Chargers +4.5): I don’t feel good at all about predicting the Chargers will keep a close game, but that’s what I’m going to do here. I’m not going so far as to predict they’ll get their first win, but I think they can hold their own against Jacoby Brissett in his first start for Baltimore. The Ravens offense should be better than it was with Joe Fagnano under center, but I’m not sure it will completely hit the field right away. Los Angeles’ offense is pretty broken, but the Ravens haven’t exactly been great defensively (25th in defense), so the Chargers might be able to put at least a few points on the board. … Prediction: Crows 24, Chargers 20
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