Can Netanyahu launch a strike against Iran before he leaves? | US-Israeli war against Iran

Despite losing its majority in last month’s parliamentary elections, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government is still in power on an interim basis.

This will continue until a new governing majority is formed – a process that could take months as the Israeli opposition struggles to form a coalition.

And although he is politically weakened, Netanyahu is reportedly considering further military action against Iran, despite the lack of enthusiasm from the United States, his own military power and the politicians vying to replace him.

But does Netanyahu’s interim government really have the authority to send Israel back to war, and how would such a move be received at home?

What military options does the Israeli interim government have?

Officially, the Israeli interim government has the same authority as a regular government. Article 30 of the country’s Basic Law states that an interim government continues to perform the same functions until a new one takes its place.

However, Israel’s Supreme Court has already ruled that an outgoing government must avoid any irreversible policy measures unless they are urgent – ​​a principle known as the “duty of restraint.”

In practice, Netanyahu can still launch military action with the approval of his interim government, which he could present as “urgent and in the national interest,” Neve Gordon, professor of international law at Queen Mary University of London and author of “The Israeli Occupation,” told Al Jazeera.

But Asher, a researcher at the Tel Aviv-based Tachlith Institute, told the Reuters news agency that security issues are generally “the most obvious exception” to an interim government’s duty of restraint.

“The Supreme Court has historically avoided intervening in decisions to go to war, and parliamentary oversight is at its strongest in the weeks after the new Knesset (parliament) meets and before its committees are formed,” Asher said.

“An interim prime minister can legally engage Israel in war, including against Iran,” he added.

Ehab Jabareen, an analyst and Palestinian citizen of Israel, told Al Jazeera that the interim government status increases the “political burden of proof.”

“Netanyahu would ask the country to accept the consequences of a decision that could outlast his government,” he said.

Is Netanyahu pushing for a return to war with Iran?

On Wednesday, Israeli media reported that the security cabinet chaired by Netanyahu had ordered the military to step up preparations for an attack on Iran.

“The directives issued by the security cabinet to the Israeli army could lead it to carry out activities that could trigger a war,” public broadcaster KAN reported.

This follows reports that Netanyahu repeatedly called on US President Donald Trump to push for a new military campaign against Iran, conversations which on at least one occasion became heated, according to Israeli website Ynet News.

On Thursday, a US military official was quoted by KAN as saying that Washington had asked Israel to prepare for a possible new round of confrontation. But the US military’s Central Command (CENTCOM) later dismissed the reports, telling Al Jazeera that it was “mere speculation”.

According to Israel’s Channel 13, the Israeli military establishment does not see the urgent need to attack Iran. He said the assessment was presented to Netanyahu and opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot, charged with forming the next government, during a briefing on Wednesday.

What did the Israeli opposition say?

The opposition has called on Netanyahu to avoid military action unless it is critical.

Yisrael Beytenu leader Avigdor Lieberman, a member of the opposition bloc, said the prime minister’s caretaker government must not “make decisions that could drag Israel into war without parliamentary oversight and the full agreement of all security officials.”

Eisenkot echoed that sentiment in a letter to Netanyahu on Wednesday, saying that deploying Israeli forces “without a direct and immediate threat that cannot wait could have devastating consequences for Israeli democracy and public trust in government institutions.”

The Israeli prime minister responded by insisting that the government made all its decisions based solely on “security considerations.”

How would Israeli parties and the public react to a resumption of war?

There would be serious divisions.

“Clearly, those who voted for Netanyahu and his coalition parties would welcome it, while most of those who supported the so-called change bloc would be unhappy to see Netanyahu using war to try to stay in power and block his electoral success,” Gordon said.

But ultimately, he added, most people who voted against Netanyahu’s bloc would “rally around the flag” if he resumed hostilities.

Jabareen agreed that Israelis would likely rally if a new war broke out and missiles arrived. But he added that it “doesn’t tell you much about whether they think Netanyahu was right to start a new cycle (of conflict).”

“And the toughest test comes when reservists are recalled again, families are back in shelters and the government has to explain what the campaign can achieve that the previous one did not,” he added.

Jabareen said the debate in Israel over any further confrontation with Iran would likely center on “why now?”

“If the case for emergency is weak, especially if Washington opposes it and top Israeli commanders have reservations, the decision could be seen as an attempt to change the political agenda as Eisenkot tries to form a government,” he said.

Beyond domestic considerations, one obstacle to Netanyahu’s resumption of attacks could be the position of Israel’s main ally, the United States, which has said it is doubling down on economic pressure against Iran rather than pursuing larger-scale military action.

“Netanyahu’s problem…is not the Israeli public, but what appears to be a loss of appetite in the United States,” Gordon said.

Anders Persson, a political scientist specializing in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, said it would be easier for Netanyahu to carry out a new military campaign if it was undertaken jointly with the United States.

But “the more Netanyahu openly provokes Iran and the less support he receives from Trump, the harder it will be for him to get away with it – and for the Israeli public to accept him,” Persson told Al Jazeera.

Has an Israeli interim government ever launched military action?

Yes. And in one case, the government was led by Netanyahu himself.

In May 2021, weeks after his party lost seats in parliamentary elections and as negotiations for a new government were underway, the prime minister launched an 11-day war in Gaza that killed at least 260 people in the Palestinian enclave. Thirteen people also died in Israel.

While this conflict temporarily blocked efforts to replace Netanyahu, a new government, led by Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, was formed the following month, ending 12 years of prime ministership.

Former Israeli prime ministers Ehud Olmert and Yair Lapid also ordered military action in Gaza while serving in their interim roles. The 2008 war led by Olmert was by far the deadliest, killing around 1,400 Palestinians.