Ethiopia and Eritrea have exchanged accusations of aggression at the United Nations, raising fears of renewed conflict in the Horn of Africa region as fighting intensifies in Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region.
The diplomatic row comes as Ethiopian troops and allied armed groups advance through Tigray, where forces from Asmara are believed to have crossed the border to support rebels fighting government forces.
The two neighbors, who fought a deadly border war between 1998 and 2000, were allies during Ethiopia’s devastating Tigray war from 2020 to 2022.
However, they have since disagreed over the 2022 peace deal that ended a two-year civil war between the Addis Ababa government and Tigray rebels, and over Ethiopia’s demands for access to the Red Sea.
So what are Eritrea and Ethiopia accusing each other of and heading towards war?
What did Eritrea and Ethiopia say to the UN?
Eritrean troops have advanced up to 60 km (37 miles) into Tigray, Ethiopia told the UN Security Council on Friday, accusing its neighbor of violating its sovereignty.
In a letter, Ethiopian Foreign Minister Gedion Timothewos described the alleged incursion as “a blatant act of aggression that calls into question Ethiopia’s inherent right to self-defense.”
He invoked Article 51 of the United Nations Charter, which recognizes a country’s right to self-defense, but did not specify what measures Ethiopia was taking.
Eritrea, which gained independence from Ethiopia in 1993, has rejected accusations of incursions into Ethiopia, calling them a pretext for an offensive in Addis Ababa.
Eritrean Foreign Minister Osman Saleh, in his own letter to the UN Security Council on Saturday, urged the body to condemn Ethiopia’s “deplorable declaration of war” and take “deterrent measures”.
He warned that an Ethiopian offensive would cause “enormous damage to the people of both countries and destabilize the entire region.”
The accusations come amid a broader dispute over access to the Red Sea.
Landlocked Ethiopia has repeatedly said it is essential to secure direct access to the sea, while Eritrea fears Addis Ababa plans to seize its port of Assab.
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed reiterated on Monday that Ethiopia must have access to the Red Sea.
Hossamaldeen Ibrahim, an analyst at the Bloomsbury Intelligence and Security Institute (BISI), said both countries’ accounts contain “verifiable elements.”
“The danger is that each side now treats the other’s narrative as existential,” he told Al Jazeera.
Eritrea and Ethiopia fought a deadly border war from 1998 to 2000. Relations improved after Abiy came to power in 2018, but deteriorated again in recent years.
Professor Matthias Rompel, of the Institute of Sociology at Justus-Liebig University Giessen in Germany, said both sides have legitimate security concerns, but their accusations must be distinguished from independently verified facts.
“Ethiopia’s allegations regarding Eritrean military incursions into Tigray… and… the extent of Eritrean involvement, and particularly allegations that Asmara is orchestrating the rebellion against Addis Ababa, remain difficult to independently substantiate,” he told Al Jazeera.
He added that the latest developments suggest that the confrontation is no longer just about Tigray. “Ethiopia’s quest for access to the Red Sea, Eritrea’s concerns over its sovereignty, and Egypt’s strategic rivalry with Ethiopia over the Nile are interconnected,” he said.
“The conflict therefore has the potential to destabilize the entire Horn of Africa, with repercussions for the security of Sudan, Somalia and the Red Sea. »
What is the latest fighting about and what would Eritrea’s involvement be?
Fighting intensified on September 23 when a rebel alliance, including the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), launched attacks against Ethiopian government forces in the Tigray, Amhara and Afar regions.
The rebels captured Tigray’s capital, Mekelle, and its airport before announcing their withdrawal on October 3. Forces allied to the government then entered the city.
On the battlefront, government and allied forces captured Idaga Hamus early Friday and Abiy-Adi, in the Tembien region, on Thursday afternoon, according to Ermiyas Ababu, commander of the government-allied Tigray Peace Force.
According to the Reuters news agency, residents also reported the takeover of Idaga Hamus. Gebremedhin Kihishen, a business owner in Tembien, said forces allied to the government controlled Abiy-Adi.
It is not clear from these accounts who held the towns immediately before the reported government advance or whether Eritrean troops were involved in the fighting.
Ermiyas previously reported that Eritrean personnel entered Adigrat on Tuesday and Idaga Hamus on Wednesday, citing reports from his staff. Al Jazeera has not been able to independently verify these claims.
The Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED), a US-based conflict monitor, reported that Eritrean troops entered Ethiopia near Zalambessa and were attacked by Ethiopian drones as they advanced towards Idaga Hamus. Eritrea has not yet commented on this development.
Addis Ababa accuses Asmara of financing, arming and directing armed groups, as well as deploying troops inside Tigray. Eritrea denies the allegations, which have not been independently verified.
The resumption of fighting threatens to derail the 2022 peace agreement.
This conflict began in November 2020 after months of tensions between Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government and the TPLF, which dominated Ethiopian politics for nearly three decades before Abiy came to power in 2018.
Eritrea fought alongside Ethiopian federal forces against the TPLF, its long-time adversary. The war has killed hundreds of thousands of people and been marked by allegations of massacres, sexual violence and widespread starvation.
The Pretoria Agreement of November 2022 ended significant hostilities, but Eritrea was not a party to the agreement. Relations between Addis Ababa and Asmara subsequently deteriorated.
Has Ethiopia sent troops north towards Eritrea?
Several media outlets report that Ethiopian government troops and allied militias entered Adigrat, a strategic town about 30 km from the Eritrean border, on Saturday.
Three residents confirmed their presence to Reuters, while verified footage showed government-allied militiamen marching through the town.
Footage from the Associated Press news agency also showed Ethiopian military vehicles entering Adigrat as some residents welcomed the troops.
Forces allied to the government reported capturing Idaga Hamus and Abiy-Adi, while explosions and suspected drone strikes were reported near Adigrat.
Are Ethiopia and Eritrea heading towards war?
Analysts warn that Ethiopia and Eritrea may already have outgrown the threats and are entering a dangerous phase of a possible military confrontation.
BISI’s Ibrahim said the two countries have moved beyond the stage of a “gradual march” toward war, noting that “the situation has entered a high-risk phase of limited but direct military confrontation with a real possibility of rapid escalation toward interstate war.”
He warned that the breakdown in diplomatic relations had removed the “last formal crisis management mechanism”, while Ethiopian military advances towards the Eritrean border increased the risk of “miscalculation”.
Tom Gardner, correspondent for The Economist, said current tensions must be understood in the context of decades of hostility between the neighbors.
Their brief alliance during the 2020-2022 Tigray War was an exception and was driven by shared hostility towards the TPLF, Gardner told Al Jazeera.
“The number one strategic objective of the Ethiopian government is access to the Red Sea, but also the removal of the Eritrean government from the landscape,” he stressed.
“This appears to be the most dangerous time for the region since the 1998-2000 war.”
Rompel, from Justus-Liebig University in Giessen, said the current situation was evolving. “The danger of a broader interstate conflict is real, and the situation has already moved beyond a purely diplomatic confrontation,” he said.
“The main danger is not necessarily that either government has decided to launch a full-scale war, but that military miscalculations, mutual distrust and domestic political pressures could trigger a new escalation that neither side can easily control.
“Wider conflict is not inevitable, but the space available for diplomatic de-escalation is rapidly shrinking,” he said.
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