A new poll from the University of Texas at Austin found that Democrats had a narrow lead in almost every statewide election, after trailing their Republican challengers in the same poll just two months ago — a sign of an increasingly competitive midterm election just days before early voting.
U.S. Senate candidate James Talarico and Democratic lieutenant governor candidate Vikki Goodwin each held a 3 percentage point lead over Republicans Ken Paxton and Dan Patrick, respectively. Nathan Johnson, Gina Hinojosa and Jon Rosenthal were 1 point ahead in their races for attorney general, governor and Railroad Commission. Only in the comptroller race, featuring Don Huffines and Democrat Sarah Eckhardt, did a Republican gain an edge.
Every statewide race was within the margin of error and only Talarico had the support of 50% of voters.
James Henson, director of the Texas Politics Project, said Democrats’ new competitiveness is due to a large enthusiasm gap between Democratic and Republican voters. The poll found that 72% of Democrats were extremely or very enthusiastic about the election, compared to 62% of Republicans. More than half of Democrats, 53%, say they are extremely enthusiastic. Only 37% of Republicans said the same thing.
“It’s really important,” Henson said. “That’s what the last two weeks of this campaign are about: It’s about Republican campaigns trying to pump up Democratic negatives and trying to stir up what is currently a pretty uninspired Republican electorate in the state.”
No Democrat has won statewide since 1994.
The poll found Hinojosa leading Gov. Greg Abbott 49-48. Hinojosa trailed the Republican incumbent by 5 percentage points in the same survey in August. A separate survey released Wednesday by Marist University found that Hinojosa trailed Abbott by 4 points among likely voters, while she previously held a 3-point lead over him among registered voters.
The UT poll found that Hinojosa was buoyed by strong support from independents, who backed her 67-17, and Hispanic voters, who favored her 56-42 — two key groups from whom she will need to win by wide margins to pull off a surprise victory over the three-term governor.
The poll included two parts: one of 1,200 registered voters who were asked about major trends, and another of 821 likely voters who received test ballots. The survey was conducted from September 25 to October 5.
Other polls also found Hinojosa and Abbott neck and neck in the final stretch of the race. The Republican governor has rarely, if ever, trailed in the polls before this cycle. He beat each of his former Democratic challengers by 10 percentage points or more.
Abbott’s campaign has spent more than $80 million so far fending off Hinojosa, who was virtually unknown outside her Austin district, before launching her gubernatorial bid. The governor’s campaign tried to portray Hinojosa as a radical, accusing her of wanting to create an income tax and supporting transgender surgery for children.
The governor said his campaign’s polls showed a different story.
“One thing I have is internal data, and I’m very confident in my situation,” Abbott said at a news conference earlier this month.
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