Georgia Governor-elect Keisha Lance Bottoms speaks at an election night event November 3 in Atlanta. Bottoms will be the nation’s first black female governor.
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Megan Varner/Getty Images
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Tuesday’s dramatic midterm results transformed the electoral map, ensuring that the future path to power for both Democrats and Republicans must pass through the South.
Black voter turnout increased in states like Louisiana and Georgia, while Democrats flipped Senate seats in North Carolina, South Carolina and Texas. Mississippi is too close to call.
Republican-led efforts to redraw House districts for more favorable districts in places like Alabama, North Carolina, Texas and Florida have backfired, with Democrats poised to pick up several seats in the region.
In several states, the margins at the top of the ticket were so large that the blue tsunami swept down-election races with it, flipping several legislative chambers and statewide offices along the way.
Even in elections where Democrats ultimately did not prevail, the millions of dollars of investment on both sides and the widespread rejection of the Trump administration from all demographic groups highlight the South’s important role in controlling Congress and the White House in future election cycles.
Electoral redistricting
Following a Supreme Court ruling earlier this year that gutted part of the Voting Rights Act, Republican-led Southern states rushed to redraw the House maps to create additional seats that would better withstand a midterm environment where voters punished the party in power.
They included changes in Tennessee that split Memphis into three districts (and where Democratic Rep. Justin Pearson is a few thousand votes away from victory), a redrawing of several Alabama districts that sought to unseat Rep. Shomari Figures (who won by nearly 8 points in the new Trump +14 configuration), and a target for nine seats in Texas and Florida.
As of Wednesday evening, Republicans won one of them, according to a race call published by the Associated Press.
Before Election Day, there were signs that the decision, along with the war in Iran, rising costs, concerns about corruption in the Trump administration and other major issues, would serve as a motivator for black voter turnout.
In the primaries held after the ruling, turnout among black voters soared. Ashley Kennedy Shelton of the Louisiana-based Power Coalition for Equity and Justice previously told NPR that the court’s decision was “personal” for black voters.
“Everyone is spending more money on their electricity bills, their gas bills, their food bills,” she said. “All these different things have a really personal impact on voters. And I think that’s the case with all the people who said, ‘I’m not in politics!’ I think they realize that politics absolutely makes them, and they need to get involved. »
In South Carolina, where Democrat Annie Andrews flipped a U.S. Senate seat, the state saw a record number of votes for a gubernatorial election year, driven in part by high Black turnout. It’s a similar story in Louisiana, where Democrat Jamie Davis narrowly lost to Sen.-elect Julia Letlow by less than 2% in a state that Trump won by more than 15 points in 2024.
Mississippi’s Senate race is too close to call, with Democrat Scott Colom leading by fewer than 1,200 votes against Republican incumbent Cindy Hyde-Smith in a state with the nation’s largest share of black voters.
State level
It’s not just Congress where the South is the center of shifting power. Big Democratic victories — or gaps from Republicans — at the top of the ticket have led to an avalanche of state and local office changes.
Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff’s 18-point victory in Georgia helped propel former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms to victory in the gubernatorial race, as Democrats swept every elected office in the state, took control of the state’s utility regulator and are poised to win a majority in the House of Representatives.
In this file photo from the 2026 election, people wait to vote early for the Oct. 25 midterm elections in Cary, North Carolina.
Allison Joyce/AFP via Getty Images
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Allison Joyce/AFP via Getty Images
In North Carolina, former Gov. Roy Cooper’s 20-point victory was enough to flip several congressional seats and take control of the House of Representatives.
Democrats in Texas won a majority of seats in the House of Representatives, while Republican supermajorities in the House of Representatives in Florida and South Carolina also ended. The down vote gains extend to states that aren’t as purple or blue, with dozens of additional collections reported in Alabama, Arkansas, Kentucky and Tennessee.
2028 is now
The large majorities in the House and Senate, built on Southern swings, have implications far beyond the makeup of the next Congress, as both parties look toward the 2028 presidential election.
As Election Day approaches this year, potential presidential candidates from both parties have made varied efforts to offer financial support and campaign to candidates in tight races, including notable appearances by former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, Georgia Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock and Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, chairman of the Democratic Governors Association.
On the Republican side, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and Vice President JD Vance are among those who have focused on the region.
Even though Republicans held on to their Florida gubernatorial seat and the U.S. Senate seat, smaller-than-expected margins in statewide and House elections make the state an attractive investment for both parties seeking to gain an advantage with voters for 2028, just as Democrats have gone on a rampage in historically red Texas.
Together, Texas, Florida, Georgia and North Carolina account for more than a third of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House.
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