Actions to take before Fantasy Football Week 8: Buy Chris Olave, sell Ashton Jeanty

Last week was another good week for this series. I recommended Higgins T-shirt And Saquon Barkley as players to buy, while listing Bryce Young as a player for sale. This week I have a whole new group of players that you should consider in trades.

Omar Cooper Jr. stayed hot with another 100 yards and a touchdown in Week 7. Fellow rookie Caleb Douglas also broke out with two touchdowns. Both players top the list of top waiver targets for Week 8.

▶︎ PLAYERS TO BUY

Chris Olave, WR, NO

Over the past three weeks, Chris Olave was the WR29 in fantasy points per game; before that he was the WR4. So what happened? Well, the Saints had a rough stretch in their schedule against the Vikings, Steelers and Giants. In these games, Olave consistently averaged over seven targets per game and posted fantastic startable numbers. It looks like we know what the terrain is with Olave. The price is probably at the bottom right now. The saints are goodbye, Jordan Tyson He is rumored to return soon, and recent performances are probably making fantasy managers nervous. As much as I like Tyson as a prospect, I remain skeptical of his ability to stay on the field. Hamstring injuries are tricky. They don’t go away easily and Tyson has a track record with them. Even upon his potential return after the bye week, Tyson will have a high risk of re-injury, making Olave a very intriguing low-cost candidate. As icing on the cake, I’ll also point out that Olave has some juicy fantasy playoff matchups against the Cardinals and Falcons in the final two weeks of the fantasy season.

AJ Brown, WR, NE

He’s probably the player I’ve felt most uncomfortable writing about, so you’re going to get a little more context. Sometimes I like to look for players who are coming off bad games in prime time. The price is lower and no one is really interested in signing this player up. This is exactly what happens with AJ Brown after the last two weeks. In Week 6, Brown had a bunch of drops that made the rounds on social media – they were mostly shaken as he shook off the rust. In Week 7, Brown had just three receptions for 48 yards. I went back to the movie to see what was wrong. Brown got open very well, there were no drops and the quarterback play was solid – it just wasn’t his night.

Better days are probably ahead. However, it’s possible that Brown still has a stinker this week against the Miami Dolphins, not because the Dolphins are particularly good against passes, but because teams pass against them at the lowest rate in the NFL. It’s gotten better lately, but there’s still a chance the Patriots get ahead early and the game script is a little heavy-handed.

Since his return, Brown has led the team in route share, target share, air yard share and first-down targets – almost all of those metrics ranked in the top 10 in the NFL. With Romeo Doubs on IR and limited receiving options in the Patriots offense, Brown should have plenty of target volume to command. So what we’re looking at here is simply a player who was shaking off some rust and then suffered from a bit of variance. I also think it’s important to remember that Brown returned a few weeks earlier from a high ankle sprain that likely limited him. Looking ahead, the path to the fantasy playoffs is relatively easy. Patriots receivers have the sixth-easiest strength of schedule from Weeks 8 through 14. If the price is right for Brown, I would begin trade talks assuming we’ll see a positive regression for the top receiver from one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL.

Jordan Mason, RB, MIN

On the surface, Jordan MasonThe RB43’s performance in Week 7 wasn’t that impressive; however, it is worth noting some solid underlying numbers. In his first game, Mason had a 64 percent snap share and a 65 percent rushing share. In the meantime, Aaron Jones aggravated a left MCL sprain he suffered in Week 2. While the Vikings staff says Jones is “day to day,” the 31-year-old veteran has a history of injuries that keep him out of games. If Mason handles the majority of the snaps — or potentially assumes a workhorse role without Jones — he’s primed to take on an easy set of opponents. The Vikings running backs have the fifth-easiest schedule over the next five weeks, which will be crucial for fantasy managers looking to make the playoffs. Another bonus: Minnesota already had its bye week, so there’s one less week to plan.

▶︎ PLAYERS FOR SALE

Ashton Jeanty, RB, LV

I know this one is crazy because Ashton Jeanty is the RB12 in fantasy points per game, but I’m a little worried about his future. First of all, Jeanty doesn’t look good. He is dealing with a sprained right ankle he suffered during training camp. He appeared to re-injure his ankle in week two and has been battling pain every week since then. Among the 24 NFL starting running backs with at least 80 rushing attempts, no player has a lower average yards per carry than Jeanty. The same can be said for his explosive rush rate, above-expected yards and EPA per attempt. The numbers and tape show that Jeanty is currently one of the least efficient rushers in the NFL, and that’s a problem for the Raiders.

Las Vegas has lost each of its last four games, and the lack of running play has been a major factor in those losses. Klint Kubiak’s offense thrives on the running game; without an effective running back, the offense tends to stagnate. Kubiak already said it Kirk Cousins will remain the team’s starter and there is no controversy yet. But what happens if the Raiders lose a handful of games before their Week 13 bye? Seems like a great time to become a rookie Fernando Mendoza in the lineup, and it would be just in time for the fantasy playoffs.

While this move may be good for the Raiders in the long run, it could be detrimental to Jeanty’s fantasy value, which is extremely dependent on targets out of the backfield. We don’t have a good sample size for Mendoza in the pros; his college numbers suggest he’ll likely target the running back a lot less than Cousins. To give you a general idea, Jeanty has a 16.5 percent target share, third among all running backs, while Mendoza’s entire four-man backfield in college had less than 7 percent target share, which would rank about 39th among qualified running backs. This is not an apples to apples comparison, and I understand that. I’m also sure Kubiak would design targets for Jeanty as well. What worries me is the combination of Jeanty’s health, the lack of rushed success, a possible change of quarterback at the wrong time, the reinforcements. Mike Washington Jr.The growing role of and the ninth-toughest fantasy schedule for Raiders running backs.

Tony Pollard, RB, TEN

This is the highest level of sales ever reached. After being outside the top 30 fantasy running backs in four of his first six games, Pollard had a massive explosion in Week 7. Pollard’s three-touchdown performance is much more likely to be an outlier than a sign of things to come. In the coming weeks, Pollard will face the Bengals, who allow the fourth-fewest fantasy points to running backs. Next comes a bye week, followed by a matchup with the Jaguars, who allow the second-fewest fantasy points to running backs. The Titans end up facing the Jaguars again in Week 12, meaning Pollard will be virtually unusable for four of the next five weeks. Your league mates will instantly see that Pollard only had one good game, but he can still be sold as part of a package deal. If you have it somewhere, I would leave it as soon as possible.

Jameson Williams, WR, DET

Guard Jameson Williams on your list is deciding whether you want to enter the touchdown variance race. Over the past two weeks, Williams has caught four touchdowns and finished among the top 15 fantasy receivers in both matchups. This is probably the top of the mountain for Williams. Next week, the Lions will face the Vikings, who are a benchmark in terms of opposing attacks. The schedule doesn’t improve after that; in fact, the Lions receivers have the toughest remaining fantasy schedule.

▶︎ HIDE PLAYER

Malachi Fields, WR, NYG

At the time of writing this article, Malachi’s Fields is available in at least 90 percent of Sleeper App leagues. Since the Giants have a bye week this week, he will likely be ruled out in most leagues in which he is rostered. Once Fields returns to action in Week 9, he and the Giants’ receivers will have the tenth-easiest remaining schedule, including fantasy playoff games against the Lions and Cowboys, who are both in the top six in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. Although Fields has yet to be a reliable starter, signs point to a legitimate breakout to come.

Since the transition to JJ McCarthy At quarterback, Fields has achieved a 19 percent target share in back-to-back games, including a fantastic WR20 performance in Week 7 against the Texans. McCarthy’s tendencies as a passer play to Fields’ strengths. Both players tend to thrive on the field, especially outside the numbers, and McCarthy’s gunslinger approach works in tandem with Fields’ contested catching abilities. We could see the relationship between Fields and McCarthy develop into a higher volume relationship that leads to more touchdowns and explosive plays on the field.