BALTIMORE — Maryland Governor Wes Moore is expected to be re-elected on November 3. But he nevertheless sweats during the campaign.
Moore’s political prowess is being tested at home, beyond his own run for a second term, as Maryland voters prepare to take sides on an election issue that would allow the state’s Democratic leaders to redraw congressional district boundaries in a way that favors the party even more than the current 7-1 map.
Moore and his allies — including former President Barack Obama — view the vote on the ballot question as a vote to fight President Donald Trump and Republicans, an argument that might generally be expected to resonate in a deeply blue state.
But it has become clear in recent weeks that support for the ballot measure may not be as strong as Moore and other Maryland Democrats had hoped, and a major effort has recently ramped up to promote passage of the measure. If not passed, it would be a major political setback for Moore, amid widespread speculation that he is gearing up for a possible 2028 presidential campaign.
Moore and his allies in Annapolis have sought to redraw congressional districts this year, arguing that the Legislature could draw a map with the eight Democratic-friendly districts to replace the current map following GOP redistricting efforts elsewhere.
But the effort was shut down by state Senate President Bill Ferguson, a fellow Democrat who said the initiative did not have the support of the majority of lawmakers in his chamber. Ferguson noted that Maryland Democrats tried to draw a more favorable congressional district map in 2021, but a state judge threw it out in 2022.
The ballot measure grew out of that, seeking to resolve the state constitutional question that first sank the 2021 map. In August, Ferguson and other Democrats in the Legislature decided overwhelmingly to put before voters a measure to eliminate the requirement for Maryland’s congressional districts to obey natural boundaries, like the Chesapeake Bay. The state’s only Republican member of the House of Representatives, Andy Harris, represents a district concentrated on the state’s eastern seaboard.
After a legal challenge, the Maryland Supreme Court allowed the question to be put to voters in a form rewritten by state judges.
As Election Day approaches, passage of the ballot question is far from certain.
A poll released this month by the University of Maryland, Baltimore County, found that a majority of likely Maryland voters (53%) planned to vote against the measure. This included 42% of Democrats, 74% of Republicans and 59% of unaffiliated voters who planned to vote no.
“To me, there was a broader, interesting underlying question about democracy. Do people want districts to favor one party over the other? And most Marylanders don’t like that idea,” Mileah Kromer, director of the UMBC Politics Institute, told NBC News.
Kromer’s survey used plain language instead of the legalese that will appear on the ballot defining Question 3 and nonetheless met broad opposition from members of both parties and independent voters.
“There are certainly a lot of Democrats who want to see some fight back against President Trump, but maybe don’t believe that, you know, redrawing congressional district boundaries just to favor their outcome is the way they would like to do it,” Kromer said.
She added that part of the reluctance among Maryland voters in particular is that Democrats would only gain one seat through redistricting efforts. A similar measure passed in California last year allowed the state to redraw congressional districts in a way that gave Democrats the edge in five seats, overriding the state’s independent redistricting commission just months after Texas redrew its congressional maps to give Republicans five additional seats.
A national fight for district boundaries
Actions taken by both states last year sparked new redistricting efforts this year. A number of red states have successfully redrawn their maps, while others still face legal challenges.
A longtime Maryland Democratic strategist also pointed to the fact that Maryland voters are generally particularly well-informed about national politics, particularly those who live in counties bordering Washington.
“I wonder if there aren’t a lot of people in the state, Democrats in particular, who don’t think that co-opting the Republican mid-decade redistricting strategy is the best way to fight back,” said the strategist, who like others in this article was granted anonymity to speak candidly. “If they hear in the media about redistricting in the middle of the decade, it’s about, you know, Republicans breaking the rules or Donald Trump. They might not be very comfortable with that.”
Kromer nevertheless cautioned that UMBC’s investigation was conducted before groups supporting and opposing the election issue began spending heavily on television, digital and physical advertising.
Democratic voters in Maryland are “upset with the Trump administration, and the message of fighting back against Trump could be a very, very good messaging strategy,” Kromer said. “It might actually make people say ‘I don’t like this, but it’s necessary’.”
After the poll was released last month, Moore and his allies began spending in earnest to persuade voters to support the ballot measure.
So far this month, Fight Back MD, a group supporting the measure, has spent $550,000 on television ads urging voters to vote in favor of Question 3, according to AdImpact. Last week, Moore’s campaign decided to no longer promote his re-election bid, but instead to urge voters to support the measure.
But even raising money among Democrats to support the measure has been an uphill battle, with the redistricting divide between Moore and Ferguson still present behind the scenes.
Moore’s campaign released an ad last week featuring some of the state’s Democratic leaders urging voters to support Question 3, which was backed by a $700,000 investment from the campaign. On Monday, the campaign used another $500,000 for a television and digital ad in which Obama urged voters to support Question 3.
Ferguson is a head of state noticeably absent from this campaign. While he worked in August to call a special session to pass a measure to put the redistricting question to voters, he has not committed publicly or privately to pursuing redistricting during next year’s legislative session if it passes next month.
Meanwhile, some donors who had expressed interest in the redistricting campaign have shown hesitation to donate this fall because Ferguson refuses to commit to passing new congressional maps, according to an operative familiar with the pro-Question 3 campaign.
Ferguson’s communications director, David Schuhlein, told NBC News that Ferguson “is primarily focused on holding onto our Democratic seats in the Senate and also trying to build on that and win one or two more in a few districts across the state, and that takes an immense effort on his part and the rest of our leadership team.”
“That’s where most of his efforts have been focused from the primary until now,” Schuhlein added.
Redistricting on the way to the 2028 campaign
In recent years, Moore has been hesitant about his potential presidential aspirations, but his out-of-state travel schedule has fueled speculation.
Last year, he told NBC News’ “Meet the Press,” “Yes, I’m not running for president,” adding that he was focused on his re-election bid.
But in a gubernatorial debate this month against his GOP opponent, former state Rep. Dan Cox, Moore did not commit to serving a full term if re-elected this fall.
“Being governor of Maryland has been the honor of his life,” he told debate moderators when asked if he would commit to serving a second full term. “And I wouldn’t run for office if I wasn’t committed to the people of Maryland.”
State Republicans, opposed to Question 3, accused Moore of pushing for Maryland redistricting to bolster his political aspirations.
A digital video produced by the state’s conservative Freedom Caucus tells viewers that 100 percent Democratic control of Maryland’s eight congressional districts would be “a trophy for his White House bid.”
But some Moore allies pointed out that even if Moore fails to convince voters to pass Question 3, it would not be a stain on a future presidential campaign.
“I just can’t imagine people caring that much” outside of Maryland, a Democratic national strategist told NBC News. “He has a great record on issues that people care about. ‘You didn’t unseat Andy Harris’ won’t be an issue in the early (Democratic presidential primaries) states.”
“This is not the end of his political aspirations,” added the strategist.
Michael Hanmer, director of the Center for Democracy and Civic Engagement at the University of Maryland, told NBC News: “The average voter won’t notice this or care about how they think about this when considering candidates.” »
“The problem in this situation, if this doesn’t pass, is that opponents are going to talk about it and they’re going to use it as an example. They’re going to say, ‘Look at the makeup of your state. You couldn’t get that? It was just one; you couldn’t flip one?'” Hanmer added.
He predicted that redistricting and how elected officials wield political power in their states could emerge as a divide between potential 2028 candidates, particularly governors, because of their broad agreements on issues such as the economy, foreign affairs and immigration.
“I don’t think we’re going to see a lot of candidates with a lot of distance between them on policy, right?” Hanmer said.
He added: “Governor Moore is an extremely capable politician. He’s extremely, I think, quick and smart. I’m sure he’ll have an answer, but I’d be surprised if (redistricting) isn’t something that others – if they’ve succeeded and he hasn’t – bring up.”
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