Three years ago, Israel suffered the worst attack in its history. On October 7, 2023, Hamas-led gunmen killed nearly 1,200 people and took 251 people hostage. Some called it a pogrom. This shattered any Israeli sense of security.
What followed radically reshaped the region: Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza, which killed more than 75,000 Palestinians and gave rise to allegations of genocide that Israel has denied. Military campaigns in Lebanon and Iran.
But in Israel, the trauma of October 7 itself is still fresh. Many Israelis believe the failures leading up to the attack on their country have been ignored. When they go to the polls in two weeks, for the first time since the attacks, one of the questions many will vote on will be who they think is most likely to keep them safe. I spoke to my colleague Isabel Kershner about what many are describing as the most important elections in the country’s history.
“What kind of country do you want Israel to be? »
Isabel, it has been three years since the October 7 attacks. How have these attacks changed Israel?
Deeply. Israel is no longer holding back. It goes beyond its borders and occupies a territory. She rejects any international condemnation of her conduct in Gaza and the West Bank. You see a lot of Israelis who are forever traumatized by that day. And this manifests itself in two ways: there is a very broad consensus within Israel in favor of military campaigns in Gaza, in Iran and against Hezbollah in Lebanon.
At the same time, people have lost faith in anything they previously thought would keep them safe in their homes. Hamas and its allies led the attack. But before the attack, there were years of government failure: policy failure in Gaza, failure to gather intelligence, and failure to interpret available intelligence. And on the day itself, the army took time to react. All this has shaken people’s confidence in the state.
What does this mean for the elections in two weeks?
In some ways, if you look at the polls, the country is divided along very familiar lines, between those who largely support Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and those who largely oppose him. But the stakes seem much higher. Many people say this is the most important election in Israel’s history. The question hanging over this campaign is: what kind of country do you want Israel to be?
How so?
The current government is the most right-wing and religiously conservative Israel has ever had. This government is still pursuing a version of judicial reform that critics say would undermine the independence of the judiciary and which led to mass protests ahead of October 7. And this government is allowing huge settlement expansion in the occupied West Bank and has taken little action against violent extremist settlers.
So going forward, people have to decide: do they want more? Or do they want to return to a more secular liberal democracy with different priorities?
Who are the main personalities and parties to watch?
On Netanyahu’s side, there are the far-right parties and the ultra-Orthodox parties. Then there is the opposition, which is fragmented. The front-runner is a center-right former general named Gadi Eisenkot, who leads the Yashar party, but overall the result is very mixed. There are right-wing parties; there are more centrist parties; the traditional Israeli left in favor of a two-state solution almost no longer exists. There are also Arab parties. What unites most of the opposition is that they oppose what they see as the fanaticism of the current government and want them to take responsibility for their failure to prevent October 7. She wants an independent investigation into October 7, which Netanyahu has so far blocked.
What are Netanyahu’s chances of winning another term?
Numerous polls tell us that Netanyahu’s bloc and the opposition are neck and neck. Opposition parties with a Jewish majority could obtain a majority alongside Arab parties. But many Israeli voters, even those who dislike Netanyahu, do not want their government to rely on Arab parties.
Ultimately, there will likely be a long process of coalition talks before we know who gets to form the next government – if anyone.
Will issues around Gaza and the West Bank feature in the elections?
Not as much as people outside of Israel might imagine. No one is calling at this point for Israel to withdraw from Gaza. And even when it comes to the West Bank, many opposition parties are moving very cautiously. They say they would subdue extremists who attack Palestinians. But above all they try to avoid the subject, for fear of alienating the soft-right voters they are trying to win over. The only camp that raises the prospect of a Palestinian state is the pro-Netanyahu camp, which says that will be the result if they lose.
As for international criticism, they are barely present.
We have just witnessed this very dramatic FlyDubai incident in which the pilot and a group of passengers prevented the co-pilot from shooting down the plane. Did this enter the campaign?
Yes. Netanyahu’s critics link October 7 to the near-miss air disaster, saying: “Look, once again the government is to blame for the security failures. » They say the Omani co-pilot should have been screened and prevented from flying to Israel.
Netanyahu, meanwhile, basks in the glory of his heroism. He had a video call with the injured pilot in hospital and met on camera with some of the passengers who rushed to action. He was very discreet about the failure aspect.
Isabel, you’ve been covering this story for decades. How are we feeling in Israel right now?
This feels like a critical moment. You hear people say that for another four years, it won’t be the same country they knew. We hear people talking about leaving or wondering if there is a future for their children here if things don’t change. This really seems very fateful.
Related: Navi Pillay, a South African lawyer who led a U.N. commission that declared Israel committed genocide, won the Nobel Peace Prize. The move drew condemnation from Israel and highlighted the country’s isolation on the world stage.
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