Widespread dissatisfaction with the state of the country has opened up a prime Senate victory opportunity for Ohio Democrats and resulted in a razor-thin contest in Iowa, according to new CNN polls conducted by SSRS.
President Donald Trump won both states by double digits in 2024, and Republicans currently hold both U.S. Senate seats and full control of government in each of them.
But in these deep red states, likely voters now mostly disapprove of Trump’s handling of the presidency, saying his policies have raised the cost of living and tariffs on foreign goods have been largely negative for their states. About four in 10 people in every state say their financial situation is worse than it was two years ago.
When asked which party they would like to see take control of the Senate after this year’s midterm elections, likely Iowa voters favor Republicans (53% to 46%). In Ohio, the split is more even (52% Democrats, 48% Republicans).
And in both states, Democrats have the upper hand in the gubernatorial race.
Senate elections present opportunities and challenges for Democrats
In Ohio, former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown holds a 6-point lead among likely voters over Jon Husted, a former Republican lieutenant governor who was nominated to fill the seat vacated by Vice President JD Vance.
Brown is better known and more well-liked than Husted, according to the poll, and voters on both sides of the ballot say their decision is more about Brown than Husted. Nearly half of likely voters view Brown’s views and policies as ideologically correct, while 43 percent consider him too liberal. Fewer people are satisfied with Husted’s positions: 42% say his views and policies are fair, 40% say he is too conservative and 16% not conservative enough.
Among Brown’s own supporters, 62% say the choice is more a vote for Brown than against Husted, and similarly, Husted voters are more anti-Brown voters (56%) than pro-Husted voters (44%).
About 4 in 10 likely voters in Ohio say which party controls the Senate will be more of a factor in their vote than the experience and character of the candidates or their positions on issues. Voters motivated by this are about evenly split between Brown and Husted.
In order to take control of the Senate, Democrats must retain their seats in battlegrounds like Michigan, New Hampshire and Georgia, while flipping four seats currently held by Republicans. The party’s best pickup opportunity is in North Carolina, but Ohio could be their next best chance. Iowa, one of several deep red states in the heart of the Senate playing field this year, is tougher for Democrats.
The poll finds no clear leader in the Iowa Senate race, with Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson at 45% to Democrat Josh Turek’s 43% among likely voters.
Nearly 3 in 10 likely Iowa voters say they haven’t yet made a clear decision on who to support, and a significant share don’t yet have an opinion on each candidate. Turek is less well known than Hinson, with 24% saying they have never heard of him or have no opinion, while 18% say the same about her. Those with an opinion on Hinson are more negative than positive, while opinions on Turek are about evenly split.
Unlike in Ohio, most supporters of both candidates in Iowa say their choices are driven by support for their chosen candidate rather than opposition to their opponent: 66% of Hinson supporters and 60% of Turek supporters say their choice is in favor of their candidate.
The poll shows some signs that Iowa offers a better playing field for Republicans than Ohio. In addition to voters’ likely preference for a Republican-controlled Senate, Trump’s approval rating here stands at 41%, compared to 36% in Ohio and significantly above his national average of 34% according to the CNN poll. And when evaluating the candidates, more say Turek is too liberal (46%) than say Hinson is too conservative (38%).
In both Iowa and Ohio, about half of likely voters list the economy and cost of living as their top issue, more than 20 points higher than the next most important issue, the state of American democracy.
The economic concerns that have dented Trump’s national approval ratings throughout the year are evident here. About three-quarters of residents in each state say Trump’s policies have raised the cost of living, a majority say increased tariffs on foreign goods are a bad thing for their state, and about seven in 10 say they have faced at least some hardship from rising gas prices. Overall, far more say their own financial situation has deteriorated over the past two years than say it has improved.
About four in ten people in each state say they are unhappy with the way things are going in the country today. These angry voters express more motivation to vote than those who are enthusiastic or satisfied with the way things are going in both states.
Democrats have the upper hand in gubernatorial races
In both states, Democrats are leading the gubernatorial race among likely voters. Democrat Rob Sand leads Republican Zach Lahn in Iowa by 9 points, while in Ohio, Democrat Amy Acton leads Republican Vivek Ramaswamy by 8 points. Both would be Democratic victories if those margins were to hold.
Impressions of Ramaswamy and Lahn appear to be weighing on their candidacies, with the share of likely voters with unfavorable views of the two Republicans outweighing favorable views by double-digit margins. For comparison, nearly half of likely voters in Iowa have a favorable view of Sand — compared to 32 percent unfavorable — while in Ohio, views of Acton are more evenly split.
CNN’s Ariel Edwards-Levy, Edward Wu and Isabelle LaBianco contributed to this report.
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