How many times have you and your fellow Texas Longhorns fans looked at one another one week before the season opener and exchanged that This feels like the year we finally break through glance?
I get it, Longhorn Nation, especially this year.
Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning (16) runs the ball in for a 23-yard touchdown in the third quarter of the Citrus Bowl against the Wolverines at Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Florida, Dec. 31, 2025. (Sara Diggins/Austin American-Statesman)
This team is more loaded than a giant Pappadeaux baked potato – I’m guessing quarterback Arch Manning prefers extra “Butter!” based on recent events – and the general feeling coming out of the Forty Acres is coach Steve Sarkisian has created a monstrous roster that has earned him five-star reviews in the offseason.
Playmakers are falling for the sky on both sides of the ball and while the schedule presents a nice chunk of challenge, it’s not out of bounds to say the Horns have the makings of national title contender.
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So how does it play out? Big plays are coming for the offense
Here are my predictions for the upcoming season:
The Arch factor
Manning admittedly sang the football blues during the first half of his debut season as a full-time starter but he finished 2025 on a heater.
Now he’s back. Bigger. Stranger. Faster. College football’s $9 million man will deliver in this fall. He will throw for 3,775 yards with 36 touchdown passes and 10 interceptions. Arch will also improve his completion percentage from 61% – which ranked 13th among SEC signal callers – to 66%, a nice bump because of improved accuracy and fewer drops. He will also run for seven scores and finish fourth in the Heisman Trophy voting behind Oregon quarterback Dante Moore, Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss and Ohio State wideout Jeremiah Smith.
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The head coach has the Horns back in the postseason. Better yet, they reappear in the SEC championship game. More on that later.
The run game is back
Manning’s reign as the team rushing champion happily comes to an end but he still runs for 338 yards. The three-headed monster of Hollywood Smothers, Raleek Brown and young thumper Derrek Cooper bring big plays back to the running back position. Smothers runs for 978 yards. Brown adds 825 and Cooper chips in with 425. They also combine for 22 touchdowns.
Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian oversees Longhorns football practice at Frank Denius Fields in Austin, Wednesday, Aug. 5, 2026. (Mikala Compton/Austin American-Statesman)
What about the big uglies?
The most talked about group at Moncrief turns into a solid season. Star left tackle Trevor Goosby will miss the opener against Texas State but return in fine form against Ohio State. The offensive line will improve last season’s team rushing average from 4.1 yards per attempt – that ranked a pedestrian 90th nationally – to 4.7. The big boys will also cut down the sacks allowed from 23 to 19.
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Aerial circus in Austin
Newcomer Cam Coleman will grab 84 passes for 1,145 yards and 12 touchdowns, the third most in the SEC, including an eight-catch, 155-yard performance at LSU. He will also garner more attention from opposing defensive backs, allowing Ryan Wingo to thrive. The speedster will grab 72 catches for 950 yards and seven scores. Three touchdowns on catches of at least 50 yards.
Emmett Mosley and Jermaine Bishop will combine to catch 80 passes for 700 yards and six touchdowns.
Bright lights, big game
ESPN GameDay will show up in Austin for Texas’ 24-20 win over Ohio State and Nick Saban will only cuss once during the broadcast. ESPN will also show up for Texas-Oklahoma in Dallas and Texas-LSU in Baton Rouge.
Texas Longhorns defensive coordinator Will Muschamp speaks with linebacker Rasheem Biles (3) as the team warms up at Texas’ second practice of the summer in preparation for the 2026 season, Aug. 6, 2026. (Sara Diggins/Austin American-Statesman)
Texas defense plays on the edge
Defensive coordinator Will Muschamp does not suffer a laceration in his first season back since 2010 but he does draw a 15-yard penalty for unsportsmanlike conduct in a road game. Lip readers across the nation gasp upon seeing the instant replay of the sideline conversation with the official. Longhorn fans roar with approval.
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The Horns finish with the No. 12 defense in the country and more importantly, they finish in the top five in turnover margin for the second straight season.
‘S’ is for stellar
Linebacker Rasheem Biles announced earlier this summer that the “S” in his first name is silent but he plays the role of “S-uperstar” in his first – and last – season on campus. Biles becomes an instant fan favorite. He seals the Oklahoma win with a late interception and ends his college career with 42 tackles, four interceptions and three sacks.
Texas Longhorns defensive end Colin Simmons (1) celebrates a tackle for a loss in the second quarter of the Citrus Bowl against the Wolverines at Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Florida, Dec. 31, 2025. (Sara Diggins/Austin American-Statesman)
Sackmaster
Edge rusher Colin Simmons makes a case for being the top overall pick in the 2027 NFL Draft after posting 16 sacks to lead the SEC in the category for the second straight year. In true superstar fashion, he comes up with consecutive two-sack games against Texas A&M and in the College Football Playoff opener.
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The SEC remains a minefield. Any hope of Texas putting together its first undefeated regular season the 2009 national runner-up performance goes awry when Ole Miss rolls into Austin and takes down the Horns in a 36-28 shootout.
Secondary steps up
Cornerback Graceson Littleton will come up with three takeaways in one game against an SEC opponent and lead the Horns with six interceptions. Kobe Black will snag three picks. The Horns finished second in the SEC with 22 interceptions.
Bringing the wood
Jelani McDonald will bring back memories of program legend Bryant Westbrook with a couple of bone-crunching hits, one of which gets him ejected for targeting. Future wideouts consider making smarter business decisions when going over the middle in his area of ​​the field. McDonald earns First Team All-SEC honors with 90 tackles, four interceptions and five tackles for loss. Justin Cryer becomes a big hit at linebacker with five sacks and a pair of fumble recovery. He finishes fifth on the team in tackles with 60 tackles.
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The losses
The Horns take a rare home loss to Ole Miss and travel to LSU where new coach Lane Kiffin draws up a near perfect game plan in Death Valley. Unlike 2025, the Horns avoid the upset and take care of business in the other 10 games.
Special teams concerns
New kicker Gianni Spetic came to Texas with a .741 success rate and has some accuracy problems early but comes through with a late boot to deliver a needed road win over Missouri. He makes 24-of-32 attempts and dazzles from long distance with five successful boots of 50-plus yards.
Opponents get smarter when it comes to kicking to Ryan Niblett. They avoid it when possible. He will return one punt for a touchdown and score twice on offense.
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How does it end?
Buckle up for a busy December. The Horns lose to Georgia in the SEC title game and enter the CFP at 10-3. They spank Boise State in the opener at home before losing to eventual national champion Oregon at the Rose Bowl.
It won’t be the ideal finish but the Horns are back playing the games that matter most.
They enter the offseason with three questions:
1. How do we get over that hump and back into the championship game?
2. Will Sarkisian ever break that losing streak against Georgia’s Kirby Smart?
3. Is there any way Sark can convince Arch Manning to run it back one more year?
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This article originally published at Are the Texas Longhorns championship bound? My predictions | golden.
