- “That’s the devil he knows,” a Trump adviser said, describing the president’s view of Netanyahu.
Driving the news: After weeks of hesitation, Trump endorsed Netanyahu on Sunday — and even suggested his defeat would have consequences for U.S.-Israeli relations. A U.S. official described the endorsement as a win-win situation for Trump, regardless of the outcome.
- If Netanyahu wins – or remains in power as interim prime minister – Trump could claim credit for saving him politically and use that leverage to press for concessions.
- If Netanyahu loses and his opponents form a government, Israel’s new leaders will still have every interest in maintaining good relations with Trump. His support for their rival would quickly become a footnote.
Behind the scenes: Many of Trump’s closest advisers opposed his decision to support Netanyahu, saying the president should stay out of Israeli elections, according to sources familiar with the discussions.
- Vice President Vance notably refused to follow Trump’s lead when asked about this week’s election, amid growing hostility toward Netanyahu in parts of the MAGA movement.
- “I’m not attacking Bibi Netanyahu. I’m not supporting Bibi Netanyahu. I think the president’s support is ultimately what matters,” Vance told reporters.
Zoom: Vance, who supported former Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán days before his election defeat in April, said he would no longer get involved in foreign elections.
- The vice president is among senior Trump aides who became disillusioned with Netanyahu during the war with Iran, according to sources familiar with their thinking.
- Vance and other top aides say Netanyahu’s assessments at the White House before the war were flawed, compounding questions about whether he remains the best partner to achieve Trump’s regional ambitions.
The big picture: Once the Israeli elections and the US midterms are over, Trump will face a defining choice for his Middle East agenda: whether to join Netanyahu in another major military operation against Iran.
- Netanyahu is eager to move forward. But the election results could influence Trump’s decision, or at least the timing of when large-scale fighting resumes.
- Trump also wants to move beyond the war in Iran and pursue an ambitious diplomatic agenda that includes implementing his Gaza peace plan, brokering deals between Israel, Lebanon and Syria, and ultimately reaching a historic peace deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia.
- Trump’s ability to make progress toward these goals will depend in part on who governs Israel — and what kind of coalition emerges from Tuesday’s vote.
The plot: Behind the scenes, over the past six months, several of Trump’s top advisers have become unhappy with Netanyahu on key regional priorities.
- Gaza: Trump envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner expressed frustration with Netanyahu’s reluctance to move forward with implementing the president’s peace plan.
- Syria: Trump envoy Tom Barrack has similar concerns about the Netanyahu government’s approach to Damascus and continued Israeli military operations in Syria.
- Lebanon and West Bank: Secretary of State Marco Rubio and his team have a better relationship with Netanyahu, but say Israel could do more to strengthen Lebanon’s government. They are also frustrated by Netanyahu’s failure to do more to curb settler attacks on Palestinians in the West Bank.
Between the lines: Some U.S. officials say it would be easier to work with a new Israeli government without Netanyahu’s far-right coalition partners.
- Anna Kelly, deputy White House press secretary, declined to comment, referring Axios to Trump’s support for Netanyahu on Truth Social.
State of play: Three major Israeli television networks released their latest pre-election polls on Friday, all showing that Netanyahu’s coalition falls far short of a parliamentary majority.
- All three projected just 50 seats for Netanyahu’s bloc in the 120-member Knesset, 17 fewer than his current coalition. His Likud party, which currently holds 32 seats, is expected to win only 20.
- Polls gave former military leader Gadi Eisenkot’s opposition bloc between 52 and 56 seats, and another 14 to 16 for two Israeli Arab parties. Channel 11 also projected four seats for a reservist party not affiliated with either bloc.
- The pro-Netanyahu Channel 14 was the main exception, projecting 60 seats for his bloc and 30 for Likud in a poll earlier this week.
What to watch: Polls point to a potential political impasse: Neither Netanyahu nor Eisenkot appears to have a clear path to the 61 seats needed to form a government.
- Eisenkot is expected to integrate Israeli Arab parties into his coalition, which he has ruled out, or form a minority government with their outside support – an arrangement some of his potential partners oppose.
- A unity government between Netanyahu and his rivals is considered highly unlikely.
- If neither side can muster a governing majority, Israel could face new elections, with Netanyahu remaining in power as caretaker prime minister.
The bottom line: Rather than usher in a new government more receptive to Trump’s agenda, Tuesday’s election could leave the president saddled with a weakened Netanyahu and an Israeli political system consumed by another protracted crisis.
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