Best fits for Tarik Skubal

The spotlights are on Tarik Skubalwho is the best free agent of the offseason. He is currently one of the best pitchers in the world. He has a 2.64 ERA over the past four seasons. His 30.1% strikeout rate and 4.8% walk rate over that span are both elite figures. His ground ball rate of 44.6% over this period is not as gaudy but still better than average. He won the American League Cy Young in 2024 and 2025.

His 2026 year was cut short by elbow surgery, but he still managed to post a 2.72 ERA over 26 starts, plus two more postseason starts. He was traded mid-season, making him ineligible for a qualifying offer. Even if he had the OQ, it would be a minor consideration for such a talented player, but the lack of OQ only helps.

Skubal is the best classic early starter to hit the market in years. Shohei Ohtani was obviously a special case as a two-way player. When it comes to pure pitchers, Skubal’s contract is expected to set new benchmarks in terms of guarantee or average annual value, or both. The record in the first category is Yoshinobu YamamotoThe $325 million deal with the Dodgers. In the latter camp, the two Max Scherzer And Justin Verlander earned AAVs of $43.33 million at the end of their careers.

Skubal turns 30 next week. That makes him a year older than Gerrit Cole That’s when Cole got a nine-year contract with the Yankees seven years ago. But he is also a year younger than Max Frit that’s when he got an eight-year contract with the Yankees two years ago. MLBTR predicts Skubal will reach nine years and a total of $425 million, making for an average annual value of $47.22 million. It would not be surprising if Skubal’s representatives within Boras Corporation aimed even higher.

Almost every club needs pitchers, but only some of them are a realistic fit for this type of contract. It’s possible that Skubal’s market may not develop as expected and he may shift to a shorter-term deal with a higher AAV. Several free agents have followed this path over the years, including Kyle Tucker And Bo Bichette last year.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan and MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reported that Skubal has no interest in going in that direction, but that’s to be expected at this point. Most players head into free agency looking for the best long-term deal they can find. Moving towards a short-term pact is usually a backup plan.

The last time Boras had the top free agent in the class, he got Juan Soto a 15-year contract with the Mets. Soto didn’t have to sacrifice the AAV either. His $51 million AAV was a record at the time, when factoring in carryovers in Ohtani’s deal. Tucker’s deal a year later adopted Soto in the AAV department, but on a much shorter deal.

The possibility of a Tucker-like pivot to a short-term deal can’t be ruled out, but it’s probably safe to assume that, like with Soto, Boras will attempt to get Skubal a solid deal both in terms of length and AAV. Reports indicated that Skubal and his representatives would meet with various suitors in the coming weeks in hopes of reaching a deal before the lockout begins on December 2.

As we do with top free agents every offseason, we’ll look at each team’s chances of signing Skubal.

All payroll numbers cited come from the MLBTR Payroll Tracker, courtesy of contributor Ethan Hullihen.

Known/probable suitors (listed alphabetically)

Blue Jays: The Blue Jays have been connected to almost every big-name player available in recent years. They missed Ohtani and Soto but they signed Dylan Cease to a $210 million deal last offseason. They also reportedly offered Tucker a ten-year, $350 million contract a few months later, before Tucker turned his attention to short-term offers from the Mets and Dodgers.

The Jays just took a lot of money off the books. Their competitive tax balance was $317 million this year, but they are only expected to reach $233 million next year. They have the ability to be aggressive. If it’s true that Skubal doesn’t want to go short-term, perhaps that gives the Blue Jays an advantage, as they were the only team publicly known to offer Tucker a viable long-term pact. The Jays have a meeting scheduled with Skubal, but a report this week from Mitch Bannon and Will Sammon of The Athletic downplayed their pursuit a bit.

Toronto definitely needs some rotation help. They have a solid trio with Cease, Trey Yesavage And Jose Soriano but there are a lot of questions regarding their options for the final two spots. If they want to make a splash after their disappointing 2026 season, signing Skubal would be the easiest way to do so.