Will son “01” become the second president of the Bolsonaro family? Flavio, the eldest of five children of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, is neck and neck in the polls against outgoing President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva four days before the first round of the presidential election, which takes place on Sunday October 4.
Jair Bolsonaro is probably following his 45-year-old son’s campaign closely. For the patriarch, it’s not just a question of family pride. Sentenced to 27 years and three months in prison after being found guilty of having participated in an attempted coup d’état, the ex-president can only hope for a victory for his son, candidate of the Liberal Party. The latter in fact made him a promise: that of pardoning him as soon as he reached the highest position in the State.
The Bolsonaro brand
The eldest of the family still needs to win against the outgoing president Lula. This was far from being certain when Flavio Bolsonaro announced in December 2025 that he wanted to launch into the battle.
Unlike his father, he is not a “charismatic and popular leader”, assures Andreza Aruska, director of the Institute of Brazilian Studies at King’s College London. “He is not a great speaker either, and he can seem to lack self-confidence,” adds Corneel Weyers, Brazil specialist at the Center for International Research (Ceri) at Sciences Po Paris.
By running under the Bolsonaro banner, the son also had to deal with a certain political disenchantment with his father after his trial. “Jair Bolsonaro is no longer as popular and a little more than half of the population believes that he must serve his sentence to the end,” underlines Georg Walter Wink, a specialist in Latin America at the University of Copenhagen, who has worked on the foundations of the Brazilian far right.
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Cover image: © France 24
And yet, it is through the strength of his name that Flavio Bolsonaro has risen ever higher in the polls, to the point of now being on par with Lula. At the official launch of his campaign in July, Flavio Bolsonaro projected an AI-generated video on stage of his father supporting him. This is not the sign of a candidate who would seek to hide a cumbersome political legacy. Especially since it was legally risky: sentenced to prison, Jair Bolsonaro does not have the right to express himself during the campaign and the use of deepfakes is very strictly regulated.
“There are also all the rumors about the upcoming film ‘Dark Horse’,” notes Georg Walter Wink. Flavio Bolsonaro is accused of having sought financing for this biopic to the glory of Jair Bolsonaro – played on screen by Jim Caviezel, an American actor close to far-right circles – whose release in Brazil, initially scheduled for September 11, has been postponed indefinitely.
Political schizophrenia
In fact, Flavio Bolsonaro can hardly do anything other than campaign on his name. “He has almost nothing else to legitimize his candidacy,” assures Andreza Aruska.
In a political environment as polarized as in Brazil, Flavio Bolsonaro “cannot afford to truly distance himself from his father without risking losing votes from his electoral base, who would accuse him of betraying ‘Bolsonarism'”, adds Chris Lyon, Brazil specialist at the University of Birmingham.
In Brazil, it is also completely natural to claim to be part of a political dynasty. “There is often talk of the three ‘B’s’ – Bible, bullets, beef (evangelists, soldiers and landowners) – to designate large political groups, but there is also a fourth: the family,” underlines Georg Walter Wink.
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Showing off his father’s heritage, while marking his difference… Throughout his campaign, Flavio Bolsonaro thus indulged in a media stunt that could border on political schizophrenia. Because while claiming his father’s support, the son has also “removed his name from several campaign materials in recent months”, noted Corneel Weyers.
He is also “much less brutal in his way of speaking and, unlike his father, Flavio Bolsonaro avoids any misogynistic or homophobic remarks; he is also careful not to be as aggressive towards the press”, underlines Georg Walter Wink.
Break in tone also in the way of presenting oneself. Where Jair Bolsonaro “played the role of the angry outsider challenging the system, the son more readily takes on the costume of the classic politician who favors compromise and knows how to develop coalitions,” notes Chris Lyon.
Would Flavio Bolsonaro be ready to kill his father to make Bolsonarism look good? In reality, the far-right candidate responds to “a tactical imperative to expand his electoral base”, assures Andreza Aruska. In Brazil, the extreme polarization of political life has certainly reduced the camp of undecided people to a bare minimum, “but there are still some left, and Flavio Bolsonaro is especially seeking to seduce some of the women who have not yet made up their minds”, adds Chris Lyon. It is no coincidence that the latter often appears alongside his wife, Fernanda Bolsonaro.
A family story
“We must be careful not to give in to the temptation to believe that Flavio Bolsonaro would be more moderate than his father. It is pure media packaging, while the ideological basis is exactly the same,” warns Corneel Weyers.
Moreover, the entire campaign is, according to the experts interviewed, a sort of “family joint venture to put Bolsonarism back in power,” summarizes Andreza Aruska. Behind Flavio, there are also his brothers. “There is a very clear division of tasks within the clan: Carlos plays the role of the pittbull on social networks, Eduardo, who went into exile in the United States, is responsible for forging international links with other far-right movements, and Flavio was chosen to lead the campaign because he appears to be the most diplomatic in the family,” explains Georg Walter Wink.
Flavio Bolsonaro’s political career also demonstrates that he is in perfect ideological agreement with his father. Senator of the State of Rio de Janeiro since 2019, “he defends values identical to those held by his father, that is to say he promotes a very repressive security policy, a defense of family values, an economic policy inspired by the model put in place by Javier Milei in Argentina and an opposition to all environmental regulations”, explains Chris Lyon.
He also accumulates pots and pans during this period. Flavio Bolsonaro is notably accused of being close to the “milicias”, these paramilitary groups made up of former members of the police. Senator Bolsonaro was also involved in a case of embezzlement of civil servants’ salaries, closed in 2025 without conviction.
For Corneel Weyers, the stakes for Brazilian democracy are even more important during this presidential election because “the first time with Jair Bolsonaro, we wondered how seriously we should take him. This time, we know, and the fact that Flavio Bolsonaro presents a more technocratic profile makes the threat even greater.” Indeed, “his ability to negotiate and play the game of alliances could make him even more effective in advancing the Bolsonarism agenda,” concludes Chris Lyon.
