Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon has fallen to its lowest level since records began, according to new government data.
But the question of whether this globally significant success will be sustained or reversed hangs on a knife’s edge as the Oct. 25 presidential runoff between two candidates with very different visions of the rainforest’s future and how it will affect relations with the United States under Donald Trump approaches.
Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva fell behind in the first round of voting despite an impressive record of slowing the destruction of the Amazon while reducing poverty and food insecurity. He faces Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former president Jair Bolsonaro.
The Prodes satellite data series, considered the most accurate measure of deforestation, showed that deforestation in the Amazon fell 41.8% over the past year to 3,335 square kilometers, the lowest value since such measurements began in 1988.
This beats the previous record of 1,236 km², the equivalent of an area the size of Rio de Janeiro.
Since 2022, the year before the Lula administration began, the rate of deforestation has slowed by 71.2%, according to data compiled by Brazil’s National Institute for Space Research. This is largely due to stricter enforcement and state investment in environmental agencies.
The Brazilian states with the worst records in 2026 were Pará, which recorded 33.9% of all Amazon deforestation during the year, Mato Grosso (25.5%), and Amazonas (15.7%).
However, even in these places, the numbers were down more than 45% from the previous year. The state where the problem has worsened (+0.4%) is Roraima, which is a Bolsonaro stronghold.
Outside of the Amazon, the neighboring Cerrado biome – a savannah area – recorded its lowest annual deforestation since 2001, at 5,516 km². This is important as the Cerrado has long been treated as an environmental sacrifice zone, where soy and beef producers could clear more forest than they were allowed to do in the Amazon. Over the past four years, deforestation in the Cerrado has decreased by 48.4%.
These dramatic results, which brought tears to some environmental advocates, stand in stark contrast to Jair Bolsonaro’s 2019-23 term, which oversaw a 59.5% increase in deforestation in the Amazon, roughly equivalent to the destruction of more than a million trees a day, thanks to cuts to forest protection agencies, reduced penalties for environmental crimes, and verbal encouragement for illegal miners, loggers and land grabbers.
Bolsonaro was later convicted of attempting a coup, but his son vowed to free his father and let him take whatever position he wanted in the government.
The younger Bolsonaro followed his father’s lead in seeking support from predatory Amazon landowners and other extractivist interests, while ignoring the climate crisis in his manifesto.
Former Environment Minister Marina Silva, who has arguably done more than anyone to defend the rainforest, has warned that Flávio Bolsonaro will try to put an end to his father’s “perverse project” to destroy the Amazon.
The stark contrast between the two candidates is evident in the map of electoral results in the Amazon, where Bolsonaro received the most votes near areas of degraded forests, mines, ranches and soy monocultures, while Lula’s support was higher in large cities or forested areas where vegetation was relatively intact.
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This is also seen in their very different relations with the United States. Lula warned that Trump was trying to colonize the country and seize its resources. He champions the Amazon as a sovereign asset for Brazil, an important home for indigenous peoples and a critical part of global efforts to stabilize the climate.
The Bolsonaro family, on the other hand, maintains close ties to the United States. Flavio’s brother, Eduardo, has lived in Texas since last year and has called on the Trump administration to impose punitive tariffs on his own country.
Jair saluted the American flag and sang “USA, USA.” If the family succeeds in gaining power, it is expected to shift Brazil’s trade priorities, particularly regarding essential minerals, from China and Europe to the United States.
Perhaps the biggest difference, however, is the far-right’s desire to exploit natural resources in the Amazon and elsewhere in Brazil, then sell them to the highest bidder, without regard for environmental and social concerns.
Conservation groups said the new deforestation data showed how much was at stake in the presidential runoff.
Marcio Astrini, executive secretary of the Climate Observatory, said: “This figure clearly shows that it is entirely possible to end the destruction of forests in Brazil.
“But it all depends on the outcome of the elections. The country will decide whether we move towards the end of deforestation or the end of the forest.”
Gn world
