With loud music, floats and glitter in the colors of the Brazilian flag, several hundred supporters gathered Wednesday in a street carnival style in the working-class neighborhood of Bangu, west of Rio, to support right-wing presidential candidate Flavio Bolsonaro.
In the heart of Vidigal favela About forty kilometers away, a few dozen members of President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s Workers’ Party rallied the troops by distributing leaflets to the last undecided voters.
But in Bangu as in Vidigal, the festive spirit has disappeared.
Both camps mobilize their “armies”
Since the announcement of the extremely close results of the first round on October 4, war has been declared between the two candidates. Self-proclaimed “Commander in Chief of the President” MP André Janones from Minas Gerais created “Lula’s Army,” a WhatsApp channel that amassed more than 8 million followers in just a few days. The channel aims to mobilize activists and anti-Bolsonaristas by challenging them on social media or in the street.
Surprised not to have won the first round, Lula entrusted control of his campaign to the younger generation of party elected officials. These digital soldiers have revitalized his campaign, criticized for its inertia before the first round. But it may be too little, too late. “This is the least organized campaign I have participated in since 1989, and we reap what we sow,” the president admitted during a meeting with allied MPs.
The octogenarian president recently began filming himself, always accompanied by activists under 30. The goal is to convince young non-voters, some 6.9 million Brazilians – only a fraction of whom would have been enough to swing the election. For Josue Medeiros, coordinator of the Political and Electoral Observatory at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, this digital awakening could make the difference. “The number of undecided voters has increased, between 7 and 14%, and this is a good sign for those who came second in the first round, because these are people who are hesitant and who could change their vote. This means that this digital mobilization is working, it creates doubt and reduces the feeling of rejection of President Lula, which was very strong before the first round.”
The Bolsonarist camp, for its part, is not remaining idle. Facing Lula’s army, Flavio deployed his own “troops”, led by the young deputy Nikolas Ferreira, who can activate his 25 million supporters on demand. Their specialty? Using AI-generated content to denigrate left-wing rallies.
The digital battle has also moved to the courts. Accused of favoring the right-wing candidate, Lula’s camp denounced Meta for “algorithmic manipulation” in favor of Bolsonaro and asked the Superior Electoral Court to cancel the challenger’s candidacy. Bolsonaro, in turn, accused the outgoing president of “abuse of power” for flooding WhatsApp with content praising his government’s record. Under pressure from the higher court, which threatened the company with a fine of around R$500,000 (€88,500) per day, Meta now claims to have put in place measures to guarantee equal treatment of the two candidates.
The polls are tightening
Coming out in the lead in the first round with around 47% of the votes against 45% for Lula, Bolsonaro seemed to have the wind in his sails: an AtlasIntel poll from October 9 credited him with 52.8% of the votes against 47.2% for Lula. Ten days later, the same cabinet only evaluated it at 51.1% against 48.9% for the outgoing president while other polls (Datafolha, Quaest, CNT/MDA) showed a gap of only one or two points between the candidates. Meanwhile, Lula scored a major victory in Congress: a vote to end the six-day work week. The massive approval of this measure by the Senate (75 votes to 1) made this labor law reform a strategic victory as the second round approaches. Initially opposed to the measure, the Bolsonarist camp ended up voting for it. The left now warns that Bolsonaro will overturn the law if elected, given that he has been a staunch ally of business owners and the food industry, who fiercely opposed the law. “It is important to remember that our opponents decided yesterday to vote for this measure. But let’s remain vigilant! They voted for out of electoral opportunism,” Lula said in a video posted on his Instagram account.
An anxiety-provoking debate
Amid repeated accusations of opportunism and lies, the tone of the second round had become tense even before reaching its climax during the first debate between the two candidates on October 18. The confrontation was eagerly awaited, particularly after Lula’s refusal to debate with his opponent before the first round.
A controversial debate lasting almost two hours live on the Band channel captured the attention of some 158 million Brazilian voters. But few details have emerged on the candidates’ respective programs regarding security, health or the economy. Instead, there was an avalanche of insults and jabs, often referring to allegations of corruption tainting both parties.
The debate aimed to convince the 33 million abstainers to vote on October 25. But according to João Ferres, political scientist at the University of Rio de Janeiro, “the debates are watched less and less by Brazilians and do not greatly influence voting intentions. This confrontation especially hurt Flavio Bolsonaro, who was aggressive; Brazilian voters do not like this kind of behavior.”
The electric atmosphere sent Rep. Andre Janones to intensive care shortly after the debate for a serious cardiac arrhythmia triggered by stress and fatigue. He is not the only one to have suffered after-effects, with some viewers reporting symptoms of “political anxiety”: cold sweats, panic attacks, irritability or insomnia.
A few days after the debate, Bolsonaro gave in and agreed, under conditions, to take up Lula’s challenge to make public his bank, tax and telephone records.
Verdict at the polls
Independent progressive media outlet Brasil fora da Caverna recommended voting early on Instagram: “Go vote before noon on Sunday, October 25, because after that we don’t know what might happen. »
Lula’s supporters also call on voters to go to the polls as soon as possible: “In the event of transport problems, change of polling station, queues or any other unforeseen event, you will still have time to find a solution and exercise your right to vote,” his team posted on Instagram.
In an election that is widely expected to come down to just a few issues, every vote will count.
Gn headline
