Soaring oil and gas prices following the war in Iran have encouraged people to look beyond fossil fuels, leading this year to a reduction in climate-damaging carbon emissions.
Carbon dioxide from oil, gas and coal is expected to stagnate for 2026, based on data from the year so far, according to a comprehensive assessment by scientists. Emissions from burning oil alone will fall by 2% as drivers save on fuel consumption and switch to electric vehicles instead.
The results, presented Tuesday morning at the Cop31 climate negotiations hosted by Turkey in Antalya, show both the impact of the war in Iran and the global expansion of cheap renewable energy, mainly solar and wind.
However, it would be premature to speak of a global recovery, say the report’s authors and other analysts. The reduction in fossil fuel emissions for 2026 will be around 0.4% compared to last year.
Still, this year’s slight decline may be temporary and has been more than offset by increased emissions from deforestation and land-use change, following major fires in Southeast Asia and the continued conversion of wildlands to agriculture.
Many factors could disrupt the fragile slowing trend in fossil fuel emissions, including an intensified coal expansion in India, an easing of oil prices and U.S. President Donald Trump’s enthusiasm for fossil fuels. Much greater investment in renewable energy and low-carbon technologies, such as electric vehicles, would still be needed to achieve permanent reductions in annual emissions, the report’s authors say.
Glen Peters, research professor at the Cicero Center for International Climate Research, said: “A drop in emissions in one year does not constitute a peak unless it is driven by structural change. Accelerated deployment of solar, wind, batteries and electric vehicles is lowering emissions in dozens of countries and slowing emissions growth in many others, but the changes are not enough to lock in a peak in global emissions.”
Around 38.2 billion tonnes of CO2 will be issued this year, according to the Global Carbon Budget, an annual assessment carried out by scientists from numerous universities and scientific institutions around the world, published in the journal Earth System Science Data.
Energy demand continues to rise around the world as more people gain access to electricity and move out of poverty, but two-thirds of this increase is met by growing solar and wind energy production and the adoption of electric vehicles.
In contrast, emissions from deforestation and land conversion to agriculture also increased this year, leading to a slight increase in total carbon emissions for the year, from 42.8 billion tonnes last year to the 43.3 billion predicted for 2026.
Scientists warned that the planet’s remaining “carbon budget” – the amount of carbon that can be dumped into the atmosphere before global warming is likely to permanently exceed 1.5C above pre-industrial levels – was around 150 billion tonnes, or less than four years at current rates.
Temperatures have already exceeded the 1.5°C threshold for more than two years and El Niño conditions are warming the sea and air even further. Global emissions must peak imminently and decline rapidly in subsequent years if the world is to have any chance of limiting the “overshoot” of temperatures above 1.5°C.
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China, the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases, is expected to reduce its carbon output by almost 1% this year, mainly due to a 5% reduction in its oil consumption following the war in Iran. Peters said: “China has seen stable emissions in recent years, after a fairly sharp increase over the past decade. There has been a lot of discussion about whether China has peaked or not. Whether this is just an isolated case and China bounces back next year we will have to wait and see, it is too early to tell.”
India’s emissions rose sharply, mainly due to an increase in coal consumption, while the country’s oil consumption fell slightly. U.S. emissions are expected to fall by about 1.3% this year as less coal is used, despite Trump’s attempts to increase it.
Bill Hare, chief executive of Climate Analytics, who was not involved in the research, cautioned against taking too much from the report. “The global carbon budget picture is one of stagnation, not decline – a projected decline of just 0.4% in 2026, a figure that is unfortunately statistically indistinguishable from zero,” he said. “We are heading towards a sustainable excess of 1.5°C by around 2030. With an overshoot looming, we have every right to expect governments around the world to act decisively to reduce CO2 from fossil fuels.2 emissions. »
There appears to be little sign of such a decisive decision at Cop31, where more than 90 heads of state and government and high-level representatives from more than 190 countries are gathering for a fortnight of discussions on the climate crisis.
Hare said: “We see governments in countries like Canada, the US and New Zealand rolling back their climate policies as quickly as they can, and countries like Australia – co-chair of Cop31 – continuing to push forward massive coal and gas development that locks in CO from fossil fuels.2 emissions at record levels. There is little sign yet that Turkish and Australian leaders (at Cop31) intend to build on (the commitment made three years ago to move away from fossil fuels) with stronger action.
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