The midterm elections are still a day away, but strategists in both parties have already given up on some key elections once billed as front-line contests.
As the battleground map expanded in the final weeks of the races, major super PACs from both parties were forced to make decisions about allocating limited resources, leading some candidates to find themselves cut off from a crucial financial lifeline in the final stretch.
More than a dozen Senate and House contests have been sorted — and they reflect the troubling picture Republicans face Tuesday.
In almost every election where either party has cut spending, Republican candidates have struggled to offset political headwinds hurting the party nationally.
The two biggest examples are the Senate elections in North Carolina and Georgia, races in which both parties invested heavily early in the cycle. The Republican Party-aligned Senate Leadership Fund spent $35 million each on television ads in North Carolina and Georgia. before bailing out on the races to help consolidate the holders in Kansas, South Carolina and Mississippi deep red.
Democrats have also cut spending in those states, reflecting how both parties are closely monitoring their rival counterpart’s spending habits to ensure they don’t waste resources on races abandoned by their opponent.
Republicans also had to cut bait in a number of House races. The Republican Party-aligned Congressional Leadership Fund has cut spending on representatives. Henri Cuéllar (D-Texas), Greg Landsman (D-Ohio) and Kristen McDonald Rivet (Democrat of Michigan) and gave up on retaining the incumbent representative. Don Bacon (R-Neb.), while giving up its reservations in NC-11, as they gave up holding the open seat of scandal-plagued incumbent Rep. Chuck Edwards. The PAC, which has a majority in the Democratic House, did the same shortly after.
Those cuts helped fund efforts in other nearby battlegrounds — a benefit for Democrats who were able to expand the map. Both parties took reservations in South Texas television markets intended for TX-28 and used them for advertisements for their candidates in neighboring TX-34 and TX-15 after deciding Cuellar was safe. CLF also moved reservations in the New York market originally intended for Republicans in NJ-09, Rep. Nellie Pou’s (DN.J.), and NY-04, held by Rep. Laura Gillen (D-N.Y.) to help boost GOP Rep. Mike Lawler’s re-election bid in New York-17.
Gilles won one of the narrowest victories of 2024 — she won by 2.2 percentage points — and she was one of Republicans’ top targets early in the cycle. representative Susie Lee (D-Nev.) and Rep. Josh Riley (DN.Y.) both won their races by 2 points last cycle. American Action Network, the nonprofit arm of the CLF, spent a total of $1.2 million on television ads in both races, but only $100 total in October. The CLF also reduced its support for Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Iowa), who won her 2024 race by fewer than 800 votes.
Part of CLF’s spending strategy changes were supplemented by president’s money that of Donald Trump political operation. The group shifted its reservations for the costly FL-25 race to No Going Back PAC, a MAGA Inc.-linked super PAC.
Democrats also sorted races by pessimism about their candidates’ chances, although less than Republicans. They cut spending in TN-05 after Rep. Andy Ogles lost his primary, making access to the seat more difficult for Democrats.
And they initially cut spending during FL-07 after Rep. Cory Mills lost his primary, although HMP returned to the air last week in the district, and also boosted spending in districts held by Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (R-Fla.) and Rep. Darren Soto (D-Florida).
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