Tuesday’s college basketball schedule is one of the best slates in the non-conference portion of the season. And it starts early as it all begins with the #1 team in the country (Florida) hitting the road to take on local foe Florida State. The Gators are coming off an impressive win against another in-state opponent, Miami, last week, while FSU is off to a 2-0 start.
This game is one of many scheduled to make Tuesday’s action must-see TV. The Champions Classic features a marquee doubleheader: No. 5 Michigan State vs. No. 2 Duke, followed by No. 15 Kansas vs. No. 24 Kentucky in one of the final games of the evening.
Between the games in Chicago, No. 3 Illinois will travel to Lubbock, Texas, for a very intriguing matchup against No. 16 Texas Tech. The Fighting Illini are still without preseason All-American forward David Mirković due to injury, but veteran forward Andrej Stojaković has stepped up in his absence. Stojaković has scored 45 points in just 24 minutes played this season.
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Memphis will look to play the role of spoiler when it faces No. 22 Vanderbilt in Nashville. The Tigers opened the season with an impressive win over Iowa State despite being a double-digit underdog. Memphis received the most votes in this week’s AP Top 25 poll among unranked teams.
Ahead of what should be a fun night of hoops, here are predictions with analysis of Tuesday’s college basketball slate.
All times ET
No. 1 in Florida at Florida State
6 p.m. on ESPN2, fuboTV (try for free): The game I followed closely on Florida’s opening night against Miami was one in the frontcourt. Miami is one of the few teams with the talent to take on Florida’s frontcourt. Yet Florida overwhelmed Miami and won this game by double digits despite a C+ game.
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Can Florida State star freshman center Marcis Ponder contain Florida’s front line? We’ll see. If this game were played at a neutral site, I would lean heavily toward Florida. But that’s not the case. Florida State’s home gym is going to be awesome. Will FSU win this game against the best team in college basketball? Probably not. But FSU should be able to keep this game close and covered. Pick: Florida State +10 – Cameron Salerno
No. 2 Duke vs. No. 5 Michigan State
7 p.m. on ESPN, fuboTV (try for free): Duke has the advantage in the frontcourt and off the bench. This is going to be the difference in this game. It will take a very big game from Fears for Michigan State to win this one. This will be the first of many tests Duke will face and pass throughout the season. It wouldn’t surprise me if Duke won this game by double digits. That’s how much I love Duke’s depth. They can go as high as 10 every game and wear teams down with new players coming off the bench. Take: Duke -6.5 — CS
Memphis at No. 22 Vanderbilt
7:15 p.m. on SEC Network+, fuboTV (try for free): Memphis’ 2-0 start was a great story, and now it’s Vanderbilt. Fasten your seat belt. This could be the toughest test of the season. Vanderbilt is ranked 7th on KenPom after wiping out Bellarmine and Wake Forest. Vanderbilt’s defense has a chance to be elite This year. He defends without making a mistake. He has the personnel to protect the rim this year and also cover the 3-point stripe. Chandler Bing, Tyler Tanner and TO Barrett are more than three defenders who will be draped all over Memphis’ red-hot point guard Jayden Reid.
If Memphis is going to win this one, it better be someone else because Reid is going to have a long night. This is the game Memphis is really missing, star big man Nemanja Popovic, who will be out for the next four games. I just don’t know how they score effectively. Vanderbilt has so many guys for Reid. It has great attackers like Sebastian Williams-Adams and Berke Buyuktuncel for Tylik ‘Bully’ Weeks’ bully-ball match. Memphis will be a popular bet this week, but it’s all Vandy in this spot. This has a ton of benefits here. Pick: Vanderbilt -15 — IT
No. 3 Illinois at No. 16 Texas Tech
8 p.m. on Peacock. Illinois is without All-American prospect David Mirkovic and sharpshooting wing Jake Davis. Texas Tech is without All-American forward JT Toppin, but 5-of-5 senior Jamichael Stillwell is allowed to return after a Lubbock judge granted him a temporary restraining order.
These teams aren’t themselves yet from a personnel standpoint, but they’ve both shown glimpses of fire-breathing offenses. Texas Tech has had guards for days, and point guard defense is going to be a question for Illinois. If you can’t keep the ball against Texas Tech, it just opens up space for sharpshooters like Donovan Atwell (130 3s at 46%) to get open. Illinois will do its best to stick to shooters and force Texas Tech to hit a million pull-up jumpers, but the Illini’s defensive warts and inability to rebound consistently were on full display against Cincinnati and Baylor in the preseason.
Illinois’ best defense is an offense that takes you out of the net time and time again. The Illini play with a zoom-zoom rhythm. They run for 40 minutes. The pick-and-rolls are out. It’s about finding the mismatch and going to work with expert spacing, tons of cuts, and even more offensive rebounding. Five-star freshman Quentin Coleman (85% from 2) and senior forward Andrej Stojakovic (68% from 2) have had ridiculous starts to the season. When Bassala Bagayoko, Texas Tech’s big man, isn’t on the court, Illinois could be in line for a layup line against a woefully small shorthanded Texas Tech frontcourt.
Illinois has plenty of lanes to create good shots against this smaller Texas Tech team, but it’s also currently relying on a ton of freshmen. Coleman, Ethan Brown, Lincoln Williams and Lucas Morillo are all firmly in the rotation while Davis and Mirkovic heal. Illinois is the bigger and better team in the long run, but Texas Tech’s veterans could have a field day if this young Illinois team doesn’t communicate at a high enough level defensively in its first real test in an extremely hostile location. It’s Texas Tech or nothing for me, especially with Stillwell back in the fold. Pick: Texas Tech +1.5 – Isaac Trotter
No. 15 Kansas vs. No. 24 Kentucky
9:30 p.m. on ESPN, fuboTV (try for free): The entire Kansas team had only been training together for three (!) weeks. Then starting guard Melvin Council Jr. broke his foot Monday, forcing Bill Self to recalibrate again. Kansas has the more talented roster on paper, but I wouldn’t be surprised if there are still some kinks to iron out that haven’t been exposed in battles against solid mid-majors like Fordham and Middle Tennessee. Is Kentucky good enough to press these hot spots? Maybe. Kentucky’s 3-point shot is the way to go to pull off an upset. Kansas doesn’t present itself as a high-volume 3-point shooting team with Trey Kaufman-Renn, Tre White, Tyran Stokes and Keanu Dawes on the court together. On the other hand, Milan Momcilovic is the best shooter in the sport. If Kentucky can rebound and run, they are more than capable of hitting double-digit triples. This will very rarely be a potential outcome for Kansas, which will rely heavily on paint points and free throws to score effectively.
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Council’s injury likely means Self will go big, sacrificing some pace for even more bounce. A top line of Dawes, Stokes and Kaufman-Renn might not make many 3s, but it makes for some tough matchups for Kentucky. Can Momcilovic defend Stokes without fouling a freshman who is a foul-drawing machine? Does Kentucky abandon that idea altogether and put a veteran Bulldog guard like Zoom Diallo over Stokes, stay home with everyone else, and try to get Stokes to take a million shots at a smaller defender? Making Stokes one-dimensional is better than allowing him to shred as a scorer And Creator.
Kansas’ offensive rebounding seems inevitable, but Kentucky’s shooting and length make it very lively in this one. His shaky guards just need to play cleanly in this one, otherwise UK is dead on arrival. Choice: Kentucky +4.5 – IT
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