How damaging is a blowout loss?
That’s one of the big lessons we’ll learn when the College Football Playoff selection committee reveals its second rankings of the season Tuesday night.
Specifically, we’re more interested in how the committee rates Kentucky and Ole Miss. Both teams were ranked in the top 10 last week and both teams suffered losses of 28 points or more on Saturday. If there’s a silver lining to the two poor results, at least they played against teams ranked No. 2 (Georgia) and No. 13 (Tennessee) heading into the weekend.
We know both teams are going to fall. The question is how far?
The Wildcats, who suffered two losses, still have two top 25 wins (LSU, South Carolina) and rank in the top 10 in strength of record and strength of schedule. Is that enough to keep Kentucky in the 12-team field? That appears to be the case, especially given how the committee has approached the SEC’s top teams so far, but a fall outside the top 12 would leave no margin for error with a schedule that still includes Florida, Missouri and Louisville.
Ole Miss is in an even more precarious situation. Like the Wildcats, the Rebels have two impressive wins against top 25 opponents. A one-score loss to Texas isn’t bad. But the 42-7 loss to Georgia, coupled with an earlier 52-28 loss to Florida, is pretty damaging. Ole Miss’ playoff hopes may be hanging by a thread without much opportunity to solidify its resume.
If the committee ranks Ole Miss in the top 15, there is still a faint hope. If Ole Miss lands behind teams like Iowa, USC and Oregon on Tuesday night, it’s game over.
Tuesday evening’s CFP rankings release will not air in its normal 7 p.m. ET slot. The second version will air between Champions Classic matches on ESPN.
Georgia n°1 (8-1)
Best win: Alabama
After Miami’s loss this weekend, the Bulldogs take over as the new CFP favorites. Georgia easily took on Ole Miss in one of the most impressive performances of the 2026 season.
No. 2 Utah (9-0)
Best win: BYU
If Georgia is obviously No. 1, Utah is just as obvious No. 2 in this ranking. The Utes advance after a 28-20 victory over rival BYU.
No. 3 Alabama (7-2)
Best win: Kentucky
The committee already liked Alabama even before its 31-13 road win over LSU. The Tide has three wins against top 25 teams.
No. 4 Indiana (8-1)
Best win: Northwest
This is where it starts to get really interesting. The Hoosiers didn’t play last weekend, but their resume took a hit as 8 of their 9 Big Ten opponents this season all lost. I could see Notre Dame, Miami and Texas in that fourth spot above Indiana.
No. 5 Notre Dame (8-1)
Best win: Miami
The Fighting Irish badly needed a win to shore up their resume and got one against Miami (albeit without star wide receiver Malachi Toney). That should be enough to jump Notre Dame several spots after opening the rankings at No. 11 last week.
No. 6 Texas (7-2)
Best win: Ole Mademoiselle
The Longhorns have perhaps the best resume in the country with ranked wins over Tennessee, Ole Miss, Ohio State and now Missouri. A win against LSU this weekend, and Texas is all but assured of a playoff spot.
No. 7 Miami (8-1)
Best win: Waking up forest
The Hurricanes should be fine — and the committee may not let them fall that far without Toney — but they’re missing a truly notable win other than a Week 2 win over Wake Forest. Miami, however, has good indicators, with fourth place in the country.
No. 8 UCLA (9-0)
Best win: Oregon
The undefeated Bruins have great strength of record (No. 1) and terrible strength of schedule (No. 76). Illinois and USC are two more opportunities to add quality wins to a resume that needs them.
No. 9 Tennessee (7-2)
Best win: Alabama
The Volunteers crushed Kentucky, 34-6, to solidify themselves as a playoff team if the season ended today. The wins against Alabama and Kentucky are great, and the loss to South Carolina isn’t as bad today, as the Gamecocks keep winning.
No. 10 Kentucky (7-2)
Best win: LSU
The extent to which the committee lets the Wildcats down after a blowout loss could depend on whether it views the loss as an aberration or an indictment. It wouldn’t be a shock to see Kentucky outside the top 12, but the metrics remain very favorable and the committee clearly likes the strength of the SEC this season.
No. 11 BYU (7-2)
Best win: Notre Dame
One of the toughest decisions the committee will make will be how to evaluate BYU versus Texas Tech. The Cougars have the best win (Notre Dame) but also the worst loss (UCF). BYU has a much better game control rating and schedule strength, while Texas Tech has the advantage in record strength. We’re giving BYU a slight edge here because the committee seems to value good wins more than bad losses.
No. 12 Texas Tech (8-1)
Best win: Houston
The Red Raiders are the first team out this week. Houston and Arizona continuing to win is a good sign for Texas Tech’s chances, as is a spot in the Big 12 championship.
No. 13 Wake Forest (8-1)
Best win: Louisville
The Demon Deacons move up a few spots due to teams ranked above them losing this weekend. Wake Forest has an important game coming up against SMU.
No. 14 Ole Miss (6-3)
Best win: LSU
The 42-7 loss to Georgia was Ole Miss’ second loss of the season, which is bad for game control discussions, and there are no more big games on the schedule. Ole Miss now has just a 10.3 percent chance of making the playoffs, according to the CBS Sports prediction model.
No. 15 Houston (7-2)
Best win: Oklahoma State
The Cougars should move up a few spots after a win against Cincinnati. Houston’s playoff odds currently sit at 19.2%.
No. 16 Iowa (7-2)
Best win: Wisconsin
If the Hawkeyes continue to win, they will have a chance to sneak into the playoffs. The odds aren’t great (20%), but a 10-2 Iowa team would at least be in the conversation, especially if the SEC and Big 12 teams continue to struggle.
No. 17 Oregon (6-3)
Best win: Ohio State
The Ducks have a head-to-head win against USC, which puts them one spot above the Trojans after beating Ohio State this weekend. The problem for Oregon is that there are no more quality wins on the schedule, so it will take chaos to advance much more than that.
No. 18 USC (7-2)
Best win: Ohio State
The Trojans’ signature win of the season, Ohio State, took a big hit, which isn’t particularly helpful. But USC is still in the race, especially if it can get a win against Indiana or UCLA this season.
No. 19 South Carolina (6-3)
Best win: Tennessee
Shane Beamer dances as the Gamecocks continue to climb the standings. Florida’s loss this weekend hurts, but Tennessee’s big win over Kentucky bolsters South Carolina’s resume.
No. 20 Ohio State (6-3)
Best win: Indiana
Although still technically in play, Ohio State’s playoff hopes were extinguished in a stunning home loss to Oregon last weekend. The committee will not give the benefit of the doubt to an OSU team without Julian Sayin.
No. 21 Arizona (7-2)
Best win: Cincinnati
The Wildcats’ resume is a little thin but could get a big advantage with the Utah Utes next.
No. 22 LSU (6-3)
Best win: Auburn
The Tigers badly need a win against Texas this weekend to have any hope of staying in the playoff race. The loss to Alabama was damaging.
No. 23 Boise State (8-1)
Best win: Memphis
The Broncos remain the pick to represent the Group of Six in the playoffs.
No. 24 Missouri (6-3)
Best win: Florida
The Tigers drop six spots after a hard-fought loss to Texas.
No. 25 Illinois (6-3)
Best win: Oregon
It’s not the top 15, Bret Bielema, but at least you’re on the list.
Bracketing based on the first CFP ranking prediction
First round
December 18-19 at higher seeds
No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Notre Dame
No. 11 BYU at No. 6 Texas
No. 10 Kentucky at No. 7 Miami
No. 9 Tennessee at No. 8 UCLA
Quarter-final matches
December 30 in Glendale, Arizona, January 1 in Atlanta, Arlington, Texas and Pasadena, California.
No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 8 UCLA/No. 9 winner from Tennessee
No. 2 Utah vs. No. 7 Miami/No. 10 winner from Kentucky
No. 3 Alabama vs. No. 6 Texas/No. Winner of 11 BYU
No. 4 Indiana vs. No. 5 Notre Dame/No. 12 Boise State winner
Gn sports
