The first College Football Playoff rankings of the 2026 season are finally almost here.
Tuesday evening, the CFP selection committee will reveal its first ranking. Apart from the final rankings, the first ones are the most interesting because they establish a reference for the rest of the season.
There are new selection committee members (hello Jeff Tedford and Gus Malzahn) and new metrics (conference strength) that could lead to a new ranking compared to what we’ve seen in the past. This is why early rankings are the hardest to predict, because even when knowing the metrics the committee is focusing on, each group filled with new members each year might prioritize some over others.
CBS Sports took on Yeoman’s job of predicting what the committee will do each week in its 1-25 rankings.
1.Miami (8-0)
Best win: Waking up forest
The Hurricanes are the No. 1 team unless they lose. A win against Notre Dame this weekend would solidify this spot for Miami.
2. Georgia (7-1)
Best win: Alabama
The top team in the SEC should get a first-round bye if they win the conference.
3. Utah (8-0)
Best win: Houston
The favorite to win the Big 12 could really solidify its position for a first-round bye with a win over BYU this weekend.
4. Kentucky (7-1)
Best win: LSU
Kentucky has one of the best resumes in the country. The Wildcats are 2-1 against top-25 opponents, have the nation’s second strength of record and fourth strength of schedule. Kentucky already has a marquee win over LSU and could strengthen its case with a win over Tennessee on Saturday.
5. BYU (7-1)
Best win: Notre Dame
The Cougars have both the best win (Notre Dame) and worst loss (UCF) of the top five teams.
6. UCLA (8-0)
Best win: Oregon
Where the Bruins land in the initial rankings will be one of the more fascinating decisions the committee makes. The Bruins have a weak schedule but are undefeated and poised to finish 11-1 or 12-0 in the regular season.
7. Indiana (8-1)
Best win: Northwest
Not only does Indiana have one of the weakest resumes, but the Hoosiers haven’t passed the “eye test” in weeks. Indiana is a victim in the first ranking.
8. Notre Dame (7-1)
Best win: Wisconsin
As I written this weekendND’s playoff path is suddenly perilous if it doesn’t beat Miami this weekend. The Fighting Irish have no wins in the top 25 and won’t even have a chance at one after Miami with SMU knocked out of the top 25.
9.Texas (6-2)
Best win: Ohio State
The Longhorns take the lead over the Buckeyes with the head-to-head victory. Texas has two of the best wins in the country against a full-strength Ohio State and Ole Miss.
10.Alabama (6-2)
Best win: Kentucky
The victory against Kentucky has aged nicely, and the two defeats (Georgia, Tennessee) are both quality. There isn’t much room for error in the rest, however.
11. Ohio State (6-2)
Best win: Indiana
The Buckeyes still have a 69.6 percent chance of making the playoffs, according to the CBS Sports prediction model, but that number drops to 36.3 percent if they lose to Oregon. Ohio State badly needs a win and to prove they are still a quality team without injured quarterback Julian Sayin.
12. Ole Miss (6-2)
Best win: LSU
The Rebels have two quality wins (LSU, Missouri), one quality loss (Texas) and one blowout loss (Florida). This looks perfect for Ole Miss, with the possibility of taking a big leap next week if they can beat Georgia at home.
13. Tennessee (6-2)
Best win: Alabama
The loss to South Carolina was detrimental, but the win against Alabama is still valuable to the Vols’ resume.
14. Texas Tech (7-1)
Best win: Houston
The Red Raiders have a very manageable schedule down the stretch, which should allow them to climb the rankings in the future.
15. USC (7-2)
Best win: Ohio State
As the smoke grew louder over his job security, Lincoln Riley (briefly) quieted the critics with a victory over Ohio State. It will be interesting, however, to see how much the committee discounts a win against an OSU team without Julian Sayin.
16. Wake Forest (7-1)
Best win: Louisville
This may seem low for the Demon Deacons, but zero wins drags them down a bit. There is room to improve, however, and his strong SOR rating (No. 10 nationally) will help.
17. LSU (6-2)
Best win: Auburn
The Tigers have three big winning opportunities coming up that will make or break their case – Alabama, Texas and Tennessee – but the resume is a little lacking without a top-25 win.
18.Missouri (6-2)
Best win: Florida
A win against Texas this weekend could propel the Tigers into the top 10.
19. Houston (6-2)
Best win: Oklahoma State
The Cougars have two quality losses (Utah, Texas Tech) but no wins in the top 25 now that Oklahoma State has dropped out.
20. South Carolina (5-3)
Best win: Tennessee
The Gamecocks once again dominated the month of October with wins over Florida, Tennessee and Oklahoma. With a 2-2 record against the top 25 and SOR and SOS ranking in the top 25, South Carolina has a sneaky good resume.
21. Florida (5-3)
Best win: Ole Mademoiselle
The Gators have two quality wins (Ole Miss, Texas), two bad losses (Missouri, South Carolina) and one understandable loss (Georgia).
22. Iowa (6-2)
Best win: Michigan
The Hawkeyes blasted Wisconsin and still trail, even though they are far from the playoffs.
23. Boise State (7-1)
Best win: Memphis
The Broncos remain the highest-rated Group of Six school and would get an automatic bid on the field.
24. Oregon (5-3)
Best win: U.S.C.
The Ducks’ playoff hopes are hanging by a thread, but they would jump nearly 20 percent, from 5.7 percent to 24.7 percent with a road win over Ohio State on Saturday.
25. North West (6-2)
Best win: State of Pennsylvania
That last spot went to Northwestern and Arizona, but the Wildcats had a slight advantage with better SOR and SOS grades.
Bracketing based on the first CFP ranking prediction
First round
December 18-19 at higher seeds
No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 BYU
No. 11 Ohio State at No. 6 UCLA
No. 10 Texas to No. 7 Indiana
No. 9 Alabama at No. 8 Notre Dame
Quarter-final matches
December 30 in Glendale, Arizona, January 1 in Atlanta, Arlington, Texas and Pasadena, California.
No. 1 Miami vs. No. 8 Notre Dame/No. 9 Alabama Winner
No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 7/No. Indiana. 10 winner from Texas
No. 3 Utah vs. No. 6 UCLA/No. 11th winner from Ohio State
No. 4 Kentucky vs. No. 5 BYU/No. 12 Boise State winner
Gn sports
