Complicating factor in election polls and witnesses recall Wichita football tragedy: Morning Rundown

Why election surveys come with an added layer of uncertainty. Witnesses recall horrific scene of truck plowing through youth football game in Kansas. And inside the silent growth of Flock cameras.

Here’s what you need to know today.

Who will actually come to vote? The question that complicates election polls

While Democrats are favored to win the House and state-level polls show the Senate is within the party’s reach, turnout remains the biggest unknown that will determine what kind of election we have.

Republicans are hoping this year’s polls will underestimate their support, something that has happened in the past. But no one can know for sure who will be there before the votes are counted: polls are not predictions, only snapshots in time.

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National surveys can vary depending on how pollsters identify a population that doesn’t yet exist: “likely voters.” Depending on how we choose to identify likely voters, Democrats are anywhere from 14 to 4 points ahead of Republicans in control of Congress.

Each company has its own method, but all likely voter polls rely on two factors: letting voters tell us what they will do or predicting whether someone will vote based on who they are.

Marc Trussler, senior election analyst at the NBC News Decision Desk, explains how it works using our latest survey as an example.

The fight for Congress is taking place largely on Republican grounds. But the headwinds weighing on President Donald Trump’s party have left Democrats optimistic. View the latest data and which states are at stake here. More, 71% of American adults believe the country is on the “wrong track,” the highest share ever during Trump’s second term.

Witnesses haunted by moment van plowed through Kansas youth football game

Witnesses to a deadly collision in which a pickup truck plowed into a youth football game in Kansas, killing two people and injuring nearly a dozen others, said they were haunted by what they saw and heard.

A 6-year-old boy and a 35-year-old man were killed in the incident Saturday at a Wichita sports complex, police said. The driver, 34 years old, was released from police custody with a toxicological and mechanical report pending.

Erica Case said it was halftime at her son’s soccer game on an adjacent field when she first heard an engine revving, followed by several “boom” noises.

“The moment I realized it wasn’t gunshots, it was bodies, I lost my mind,” Case said. “I lost it because it wasn’t just the adults. There were the children too.”

Here’s what others told us.

NFL Week 6: Caleb Williams returns, and life gets worse for the Rams

Week 6 of the NFL season featured the return of a star player and another devastating loss for a Super Bowl contender.

Here are all the stocks you need to know from yesterday:

• Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams played for the first time since an injury in Week 2 with a 31-23 win over the Atlanta Falcons.
• After starting the season as Super Bowl favorites, the Los Angeles Rams (2-4) sit in last place in the NFC West after an 18-16 loss to the Arizona Cardinals.
• The Kansas City Chiefs improved to 5-0 with a 22-6 win over the Los Angeles Chargers. Is their attack returning to its dynastic heights?
• Thanks to familiar mistakes, the Dallas Cowboys are off to their worst start in years.

Read the full list of takeaways here.

Staff Picks: How Flock Cameras Spread Through Government Deals That Evaded Public Scrutiny

I’ve been covering Flock Safety’s ALPR cameras for over a year. These cameras are license plate readers that, in many cases, create detailed portraits of U.S. vehicle movements, accessible to police across the country without a warrant.

A big part of this story is how many Americans from all walks of life and across the political spectrum have fought back against the cameras in their communities, both legally through their local governments and through illegal vandalism. Time and again, I heard them ask how these cameras, from a company less than a decade old, were suddenly installed in their cities and counties, often with their tax money and without their knowledge.

So I searched dozens of Flock contracts across the country and found at least one answer: Many of them were structured to reduce the attention they might receive from local communities. In some cases, these would be amounts just a few dollars below a key threshold — such as the amount that would require City Council approval — with local leaders adamant that this was to avoid a vote. In many more cases, I found contracts in which Flock helped local officials obtain a “no-bid” contract, claiming that their technology was particularly unique and that they did not need to open a process of sourcing multiple vendors.

Flock did not invent these tactics, and there is no indication that they did anything illegal with these contracts. But this investigation provides a clear look at how existing rules used by communities to purchase police equipment can help a surveillance technology company quietly install cameras across the country.

— Kevin Colliercybersecurity journalist

Read all about it

• A soldier died after falling during a pre-match aerial display during a college football game in San Antonio, Texas.
• Cindy Crawford paid tribute to her son Presley Gerber. Crawford addressed the tragedy for the first time since Gerber’s death in September, in an Instagram post shared yesterday. The former model and actor wrote that the family is “heartbroken to lose our beloved son and brother.” Kaia Gerber also posted a tribute to her brother on Instagram the same day.
• A California woman who prosecutors say was spying on a son of Taiwan’s president has been indicted on charges notably as an unregistered foreign agent for China.

• The Elizabeth Holmes film “You Can See Everything” was a weekend success with thousands of sellouts.

• Four Canadian soldiers were killed and 39 people injured when a a rapid fire swept through during an outdoor military training exercise in Alberta. The cause is under investigation.
• Australian MP Helen Haines is in critical condition after she was deliberately hit by a car outside her office in Wangaratta, police and Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said.

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