Updated October 30, 2026, 4:02 p.m. ET
With just four days until the midterm elections, a reliable election forecaster said Oct. 30 that more than a dozen congressional races were shifting to Democrats, suggesting the party has the potential to win its largest majority in the House in more than a decade.
The Cook Political Report has changed its forecasts for 14 House and Senate races. Recent metrics suggest Democrats could flip between 12 and 25 seats in the House.
Throughout a given election cycle, the prognosticator sorts the likely outcome of Senate, House, and gubernatorial elections into “Solid,” “Likely,” “Lean,” and “Toss-Up” categories for each party.
The most recent changes predict that more than 220 House races will favor Democrats. If the party wins all these seats and 18 draws, it will obtain a majority of 240 seats. Democrats need at least 218 seats to win a majority in the House.
The latest changes show Pennsylvania’s 1st District, a major swing district that includes Bucks County just outside Philadelphia, moving from being “lean Republican” to being lean. President Donald Trump won the region in 2024 and 2016, but narrowly lost to former President Joe Biden in 2020.
South Carolina’s 1st District, which encompasses coastal areas outside of Charleston, and Colorado’s 5th District, including Colorado Springs, also went from “lean Republican” to biased.
Two other races, Ohio’s 9th District, in the northwest part of the state, and Pennsylvania’s 8th District, which includes Scranton and Wilkes-Barre, both moved from “lean Democratic” status. Since 2016, these two regions have been seen as indicators of Trump’s popularity, particularly among white, blue-collar voters.
Both Republicans and Democrats have framed the midterm elections as a referendum on Trump’s presidency. The president’s popularity rating has been in free fall for months, against a backdrop of a costly war in Iran and rising costs of living.
As of October 15, the Cook Political Report poll showed Trump with a disapproval rating of 61.2%.
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