Congressional races in Iowa, Pennsylvania, Washington, Michigan and more are tilting toward Democrats, according to an update Friday from the closely watched Cook Political Report.
Why it’s important: The Republican Party’s midterm outlook was already bleak, anchored by an unpopular war and high fuel prices. But avoiding a blue resurgence, despite significant spending, seems increasingly complicated as election day approaches.
Driving the news: Cook’s new measurements put Democrats in a 9-19 seat range, in a 224-234 range, as a midterm result. The changes include:
- Five seats – in Iowa, Pennsylvania and Washington – shifted from toss-ups to leaning Democratic, including Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks’ (R-Iowa) tough rematch race against Democrat Christina Bohannan.
- Cook also pushed four races — in Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina and Virginia — from leaning Republican to toss-ups. That’s good news for Rep. Don Davis (D-N.C.), whose district was distorted by mid-decade redistricting.
- Republicans’ grip on other elections in Kentucky, Maine, Pennsylvania, Arkansas and Indiana has diminished, moving them toward Lean R or Likely R. Meanwhile, Democrats’ grip on elections in Nevada, New York and Nebraska has tightened.
What they say: “House races are being won in districts, one by one, with proven candidates and messages that work,” NRC spokesperson Mike Marinella said in a statement provided to Axios.
- “Washington pundits can keep guessing, but voters on the ground have a stark contrast between common sense and madness,” he said, adding that “in November, we are going to win.”
Point of friction: President Trump is traveling the country campaigning for Republican candidates. But with the midterm elections serving as a referendum on his White House, its results could well be a liability for Republicans in tight races.
- Republicans have been quietly distancing themselves from the president — and it seems even some Trump voters have figured it out: A Politico poll released Friday found that one in four people who voted for him in 2024 say the Republican candidate in their district would be better off breaking with Trump.
Zoom: Of the seats described as “Toss Up” by Cook, six are held by Democrats and 15 by Republicans.
- According to Cook, Democrats need to win 20 percent of races to reach a majority, assuming the seats that favor them in the nonpartisan analysis go the Democrats’ way.
The bottom line: The political environment continues to deteriorate for Republicans, even after the dust of the redistricting battle and with their financial advantage.
Go further: House Republican leaders admit redistricting didn’t work
Editor’s note: This story has been updated with a response from the NRC.
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