Democrats just got another boost in the midterm horse race scoreboard. Cook’s political report Friday moved 12 more House elections in their direction, now projecting that the party would pick up at least 218 seats in the “Lean Democrat” category or better, with perhaps as many as 240 seats gained, the Hill reports. That would be enough to maintain control of the House, with several once-comfortable Republican districts now transformed into competitive ones. “Even though Democrats won’t reach the 257 seats they had after President Barack Obama’s election — a record for them this century — they could surpass the majorities they had after the blue wave cycles of 2006 and 2018,” writes Erin Covey for CPR.
Among the notable moves: Three seats in Colorado’s 5th, Pennsylvania’s 1st and South Carolina’s 1st (two of them GOP-held, one open) were moved to the “Toss Up” column, while Pennsylvania’s 8th and Ohio’s 9th are now officially Democratic. Some previously safe Republican districts in Florida, Indiana, North Carolina, New Jersey and Washington also look shakier, due to concerns about low GOP turnout, sliding approval of Trump and negative effects from Senate elections.
According to the Washington PostA review of all CPR ratings going back over 40 years shows that 97% of its entries in the “Probable” category have been proven accurate, with a still impressive 94% in the “Leans” ratings. NPR and ABC News feature some of the House races to keep an eye on, while US News and World Report meticulously details how Democrats could build a majority in this chamber. Still, Reuters notes six reasons why a midterm “landslide” might not happen for Democrats.
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