Dementia diagnoses show no signs of slowing down.
While previous studies predicted cases would double by 2060, that date has now been brought forward by a decade, according to new research.
Experts warn that not only is this health crisis evolving at an alarming rate, but some groups may also be at greater risk of developing this degenerative disease than others.
In the most comprehensive estimate of new cases of dementia worldwide, a study published Monday in JAMA Neurology looked at several studies involving nearly 40,000 people in 18 countries.
Researchers from the Center for Healthy Brain Aging at UNSW Sydney analyzed data from 22 studies and found there were 11.4 million new cases of dementia in 2023 – a number expected to more than double to 24.7 million by 2050.
This means that every year the equivalent of the Australian population will develop dementia, according to geriatrician Dr Liron Sinvani, director of research and innovation at the Northwell Institute for Healthy Aging.
“In terms of magnitude, obviously, this number of new cases of dementia is staggering,” Sinvani told the Post. “This is not a future problem. This is an accelerating epidemic crisis that requires immediate attention.”
The new study focused on incidence – the rate at which people develop dementia or new cases per year – rather than prevalence, or the total number of people living with the disease at any given time.
The rapid rise in numbers is due to the aging population, with Sinvani noting that around one in nine people suffer from dementia after age 65, “but after age 85 it could be almost one in three.”
However, two groups experienced higher instances of progressive erosion of memory, concentration, and judgment: women and people living in low- and middle-income countries.
“Even accounting for age, the study showed that the incidence, not just the prevalence, was significantly higher in women than in men,” Sinvani said.
Rates were higher among women, with 10.6 cases per 1,000 people compared to 8.6 among men, which Sinvani said could be due to “something biological, social or environmental that puts women at greater risk.”
Meanwhile, new cases of dementia were 64% higher among people from low- and middle-income countries than in high-income countries.
This means that countries with fewer resources for diagnosis, treatment and care will treat more cases.
Education level also played a role in determining who was most susceptible to neurodegenerative disease, with lower education being strongly linked to incidents of dementia.
An earlier study from 2024 reported similar results, identifying 14 modifiable risk factors that accounted for almost half of dementia cases, education being one.
“Understanding these differences is essential if we are to develop dementia prevention, diagnosis and care strategies that address populations facing the greatest future risk,” said study lead author Dr Ashleigh Vella in a press release on the new study from UNSW Sydney.
However, prevention is possible by focusing on high-income countries where cases have declined in recent decades.
The reasons for this decline? Manage risk factors like cardiovascular health, reduce the risk of health problems like heart disease and type 2 diabetes, and increase physical activity.
Better education around dementia is also important for prevention, with Sinvani noting that “we need to look at this as holistic dementia prevention that will impact the whole world.”
To prepare for an influx of cases in the future, she suggests prioritizing women for dementia screening and prevention efforts, in addition to improving health system infrastructure.
The most important factor that will determine future cases is current prevention.
“We need to improve education, physical activity and obesity,” Sinvani said. “We need to manage blood pressure, diabetes and cholesterol. We really need to promote physical activity, social engagement, education and reduce smoking and air pollution.”
Gn Health
