Virginia Beach, Virginia
No part of a decade-long existential crisis is ever easy, even when things seem on the verge of going well — and especially when Democrats have had their hopes raised and dashed time and time again.
“It’s a bit of déjà vu,” said Elaine Luria, who in 2018 flipped Virginia’s 2nd Congressional District in the Democratic midterm wave during Donald Trump’s first term, held on to it in 2020 to help build a slim majority, lost it in 2022 as Republicans won their own slim majority, and is now running to reclaim it.
“If you see how people are feeling today, the energy on the ground — the second time they’ve been through this hell of the Trump administration… people want change,” Luria said. “They can’t take it anymore.”
The path to a Democratic majority runs through this district, Luria said on stage in Batten University’s small theater. Early voting data suggests Democrats are outperforming Republicans. The energy within the party is boiling.
Internal polling described to CNN already shows Democratic leaders smiling at the way the midterm elections appear to be turning out, even though they will be voting on the results with bare hands when they come in Tuesday. They will enter the midterm elections with a 9-point advantage over Republicans in the congressional wild card, according to CNN’s Poll of Polls.
“Republicans end up talking about ballrooms and backrooms. That’s the disarray Republicans are in,” said New York Rep. Hakeem Jeffries, the Democratic leader who joined Luria on Saturday, attacking Trump’s remake of the White House and his criticism of the Republican physique.
After Jeffries spoke, the crowd took out signs and other campaign materials, heading toward a few more doors. Jeffries headed to a plane to try to save Rep. Shomari Figures’ seat, including Alabama district Republicans were targeted after the Supreme Court’s ruling gutting the Voting Rights Act this spring.
“There’s going to be so many close races that you can’t predict — I’m guessing there’s at least 20, the loser is going to get 49 percent — so it’s going to be hard to predict,” Rep. Bobby Scott of Virginia said as he left Luria’s rally, describing himself as optimistic but uncertain.
Sen. Chris Van Hollen chaired Senate Democrats’ 2018 election campaign, when the party successfully defended several Senate seats it was expected to lose without securing a majority. The Maryland senator said this election was dominated by clueless Democrats talking about “resistance.”
This year, as he campaigned from New Mexico to Georgia to New Hampshire, Van Hollen said, he saw a broader shift among those who supported Trump for a second term because they wanted the lower prices and end to foreign wars he promised.
“This time what’s different is the promises that candidate Trump made that helped him gain votes within his coalition, he did a 180,” Van Hollen told CNN.
Rahm Emanuel, the former Chicago mayor and congressman who helped oversee the campaigns that led to the midterm elections during George W. Bush’s second term, said the feeling he gets from voters is different than in 2006. He thinks there is a backlash from Americans enraged by corruption, particularly among black and Latino voters.
In 2006, “the emotion was disappointed, tired,” says Emanuel. “Here, it’s anger and bitterness. And that says a lot about motivation.”
That’s not to say that Emanuel enters Tuesday with confidence that the polls aren’t missing the level of support for Trump and the Republicans and that turnout won’t bring surprises as district collapses occur.
“I keep checking to make sure we’re not all talking to each other. So I’m walking around looking for something, ‘Please give me a negative,'” Emanuel said. To fellow Democrats worried about being disappointed again, Emanuel added: “You may be right, but you may prefer to use that energy productively rather than sitting around. Text, email, phone call, stand in the middle of the highway. I don’t care what you do, but just use it. There’s nothing productive to do by sitting there and being nervous.”
Activists from both parties were stunned by the cynicism that emerged from the focus groups, spanning all geographic, demographic, age and political categories. Politics is, for many, seen as a game for insiders, in a world that increasingly resembles a playground for the rich and powerful, where everyone else is left behind as their costs rise and their lives deteriorate.
Candidates hear all this on the trails, in supermarket aisles, or when they show up to vote early themselves. Anger, disappointment, abandonment: this is what is going through American voters as they go to the polls.
“Confident and paranoid” is how Washington state Rep. Suzan DelBene, chair of the House Democrats’ campaign arm, described her state of mind heading into Tuesday.
Getting the three seats that would put her party in the majority seems like a no-brainer for DelBene — but then again, she made it through the final days of the election two years ago, when the majority also felt within her reach. The paranoia, she says, comes from how she sees Trump trying to interfere with the election results.
DelBene walked through the conversations she’s had on the trail, from an early voting center in an Ohio district that Democrats think they can hold to a Meals on Wheels location in an Arizona district they hope to flip. At each stop, she says, the economic pain is palpable. At every step, she tries to make voters believe that Democrats are ready to offer real solutions.
While voting early last week, Cleveland Mayor Justin Bibb said he spoke to a woman who lamented the rising cost of her groceries and medications. She brought her whole family with her to the polling station. To her, it seemed like the only thing to do. But Bibb said he worries that Democrats, happy with their big victories, don’t understand why she and others bothered to give the vote one more chance.
He understands the cynicism in the country, Bibb said. He hopes other Democrats will do the same, and he’s already starting to organize with his fellow mayors on how to pressure Washington, D.C., to respond if and when the results come in as he hopes.
“We can’t miss this moment with just hearings and arraignment proceedings,” Bibb said. “People need to see their wallets improve. »
Before anyone starts counting committee chairs, Van Hollen said, they first have to win. As he travels the country, the senator often ends by recounting the story of the 2017 races for the Virginia House of Delegates. In the end, control was decided by one seat, and the election for that seat ended in a tie, leaving it decided, under state law, by a game of chance — in this case, drawing slips of paper from a bowl. The Republicans won.
“I wouldn’t rely on those polls,” Van Hollen said. “My plea is this: don’t take anything for granted, don’t let control come down to one campaign.”
This can be difficult for voters, candidates and leaders. DelBene says she spent the latter part of the campaign giving lots of pep talks.
“It’s a very stressful time. People are tired. They’ve worked incredibly hard,” DelBene said. “I have a lot of conversations with people just to say, ‘Keep going.’ The one thing about an election is this: There is an end date.
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