The most valuable education I received to become a political editor was growing up in Florida. During the 18 years I lived there, it was a purple state that voted for Barack Obama twice, and while I wouldn’t say my community was diverse, the spectrum of political ideology was vast. I had a close friend who kept a life-size silhouette of George W Bush in her bedroom, and another who helped organize Amnesty International anti-landmine fundraisers. When the state went deeply Republican in 2016 and stayed that way, I continued to suspect that wasn’t the whole story.
Even so, nothing could prepare me for the sheer surprise when Angie Nixon — the state lawmaker who joined the Democratic Socialists of America against Alex Vindman, a nationally recognized centrist — won the Democratic Senate primary in Florida. That clash has continued in the months since, as we see Democratic gubernatorial candidate David Jolly go neck-and-neck with Republican Byron Donalds, who seemed like a front-runner just a few weeks ago. And while Nixon is voting behind his Republican opponent, Ashley Moody, the race is much closer than anyone who follows Florida politics thought. So much so that progressive Senator Bernie Sanders recently invested millions of dollars of his campaign funds in the state, and popular Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez went to campaign with Nixon last month.
This trend is not limited to Florida. Democrats are performing better in several Republican-controlled regions and states across the country, from Kansas, where a Democratic Senate candidate recently gained a lead, to Iowa, where the governor’s seat and congressional districts could flip. In deep-red Texas, the focus has been on Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico, but more recently the party’s gubernatorial nominee Gina Hinojosa has also been turning heads. Across the country, voters appear eager to exercise their political power at a time when Donald Trump finds his approval ratings hitting historic lows.
Americans’ deep dissatisfaction with the current administration is becoming clear as we move closer to Election Day. Our reporters heard the frustration at gas stations, in schools and at rallies. People are tired of the status quo and are looking for a way out, even if, as is the case in Kansas, it means choosing a party that hasn’t won a seat in nearly a hundred years. It doesn’t help that Republicans have chosen a number of openly corrupt and problematic candidates, such as Kansas Senate candidate Roger Marshall, a doctor who has sued thousands of patients, or Ken Paxton of Texas, a state attorney general with a long history of personal and financial scandals.
All of this may be true now, but there remains a question of longevity that both sides will have to answer in the years to come. Midterm elections almost always serve to control the White House, but neither party has turned that momentum into long-term gains. In fact, numerous surveys show that both the Republican and Democratic parties are deeply unpopular. The upcoming elections seem much more dependent on specific candidates in specific places with the right message for their voters — whether that’s inviting Barack Obama to a rally or avoiding Kamala Harris altogether. Even if there was a “blue wave” in November, it will take a lot more work to maintain enthusiasm through the 2028 presidential election with a unifying message.
With just under four weeks to go, it remains to be seen whether the Democratic advantage continues and what a decisive victory for the party will be if it succeeds. But as a Floridian, this election reminds me that even though Americans are polarized and stratified in filter bubbles, we are still extremely capable of making ourselves heard.
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America’s Politics Team is hosting a Q&A series with readers ahead of the midterm elections. Our next live conversation will take place on October 15, 2026 at 12 p.m. EDT, with a panel of business, labor and consumer rights journalists discussing how the U.S. economy could influence the outcome of the midterm elections. Send us your questions here.
Quoted
Here in Michigan, we know that Canada is not our enemy. We must end this tariff war now.
– Mike Rogers, Republican candidate for Senate in Michigan, in his latest campaign ad.
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It’s a sign of the times where several prominent Republican candidates are speaking out in direct opposition to Donald Trump.
Watch this race: Minnesota Senate
Even though the entire top of this report card was focused on Democrats doing well in Trumpland, it’s important to note that there are places where Republicans surprised people as well. One of them is Minnesota, where my colleague Rachel Leingang has covered state races extensively. While Democratic Senate candidate Peggy Flanagan still holds the lead, some have noticed Republican Michelle Tafoya making gains in the otherwise Democratic state.
Tafoya, a former sportscaster, positions herself as conservative with a few asterisks, such as her support for some abortion rights and her criticism of Trump’s actions in the Iran war. It is worth noting that national Republicans did not invest in his race.
Minnesota has seen deep political turmoil in recent years, from federal immigration raids that killed two U.S. citizens to the killing of a beloved head of state. It’s also one of the targets of the Trump administration, which has capitalized on a recent statewide fraud investigation. Even though indicators suggest Flanagan will retain the vote, we will be monitoring the impact of rural Republican voters in the state.
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