The Republicans’ path to maintaining control of the House has all but evaporated. The outstanding question is what the Democratic majority will be in 2027; in the best-case scenario, their party could enter the new Congress with more seats than it had after successfully flipping control of the House in 2006 and 2018.
Thanks to new polling and ad spending, we move 19 more races toward the Democrats. Six districts – four of which are held by Republican incumbents – are moving from the Toss Up column to Lean Democrat. Two more vacant seats are moving from Lean Republican to Toss Up.
Following this latest round of changes in the ratings, Democrats are now heavily favored for the 218 seats they need to take control of the House. In other words, 220 seats are classified as Solid, Likely, or Lean Democrats. Republicans, meanwhile, are favored in 198 seats, classified as solid, likely or lean Republican. This leaves 17 races classified as pure Toss Ups.
Today, we believe the most likely outcome would be for Democrats to alternate between 12 and 22 seats. Democrats currently hold 215
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