Eight days before the US midterm elections on November 3, Democrats have a three in four chance of taking control of the Senate and remain the strong favorites to take control of the House of Representatives in Nate Silver’s forecast model.
Democrats lead Republicans by 9.5 points in the generic poll, and Donald Trump’s net approval is -23.3. There hasn’t been much change in the forecast in October.
If the disruption caused by the war in Iran continues into the midterm elections, with oil prices and inflation rising, Republicans risk losing control of the House and Senate, perhaps at huge losses.
With the recent surge in oil prices, gasoline prices are expected to rise again before the midterms.
Trump’s notes
Across Silver’s U.S. national polls, Trump’s net approval is -23.3. Currently, 60.2% disapprove of his performance and 36.9% approve. Trump’s net approval had fallen to a new low of -24.3 last Wednesday before rising slightly.
In an October 19-20 YouGov poll, 66-3 respondents sympathized more with Ukraine than Russia in the Ukraine-Russia war, but 45-16 respondents thought Trump sympathized more with Russia. Trump’s October 9 announcement of a diesel import deal with Russia didn’t help.
Trump’s net approval was -22.3 in my October 19 article. His net approval had improved to -18.7 on September 4 before falling again.
Trump’s net approval is lower than any former president since Harry Truman at this point in his term, with Joe Biden closest at -10.7.
On four issues tracked by Silver, Trump’s net approval is -13.2 for immigration, -29.9 for trade, -32.6 for the economy and -46.0 for inflation. Since my October 19 article, Trump’s net approval on inflation has improved by three points, but lost two points on immigration.
Silver also enjoys overall support from the United States for the war in Iran. Currently, 55.2% oppose the war in Iran while 36.3% support it, for a net support of -18.9, compared to -21.0 in my October 19 article. This is the highest net support since late August, and a record low of -27.9 on October 6.
When the war in Iran is no longer in the headlines and oil prices do not rise, support for the war increases.
Midterm elections on November 3
The 435 seats in the federal House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 senators will be elected in the midterm elections on November 3.
In the 2024 elections, Republicans won the House by 220 to 215 over Democrats and the Senate by 53 to 47. Due to Vice President J.D. Vance’s potential vote, Democrats need at least four seats to take control of the Senate.
As I’ve written previously, because of Republican gerrymandering, Democrats need at least a four-point lead in the generic ballot to have a good chance of winning a majority in the House. The Senate is more Republican-friendly because each state has two senators. Democrats need a double-digit margin in the generic runoff to win the Senate evenly.
In Silver’s midterm election forecasting model, the wildcard poll gives Democrats a 51.6 to 42.1 lead over Republicans, a margin of 9.5 points (down slightly from the 9.6 points in my October 19 article). The Democrats’ lead had fallen to 7.4 points by September 4.
Polls that screen for likely voters generally give Democrats larger leads than polls that survey registered voters. Democrats are more likely to vote in low-turnout elections, such as the midterms, than Republicans, when Trump is not on the ballot.
Silver’s model gives Democrats a 75% chance of winning the Senate and a 95% chance of winning the House, 75% and 94% respectively on October 19. Democrats’ chances of winning the Senate had fallen to 50% by September 7, and their chances of winning the House had fallen to 81% by September 3.
While the uniform swing indicates that Democrats need a double-digit margin in the generic runoff to take control of the Senate, Silver’s model places Democrats as favorites to win by a 5-6 point margin in the wildcard runoff. In the House, Democrats are favored if they win by 2 to 3 points.
Democrats lead Republicans by one to four points in polls in Kansas, Iowa, Texas, Alaska and Ohio. Trump won all of these states by double-digit margins in 2024. However, Democrats lead by only two to three points in Republican-held Maine and Democratic-held Michigan. Kamala Harris won Maine by 6.9 points in 2024 and Trump only won Michigan by 1.4 points.
Economic data
Americans currently pay an average of $4.29 per gallon for regular gasoline (gasoline in the United States), up from $4.36 per gallon in my October 7 article and $4.48 on September 25. Due to profits and taxes, the retail price of gasoline will be higher than the price of raw materials.
The price of gasoline rose from a low of $2.99 per gallon on Aug. 27 to $3.59 on Sept. 23, but fell to $3.12 last Tuesday before climbing back to its current level of $3.18 per gallon.
However, the price of Brent oil, an international benchmark, jumped from $96.16 per barrel on September 29 to $116.72 last Friday, the highest level ever reached during the Iran war. There appears to be a lag between the evolution of oil prices and gasoline prices, so gasoline prices are expected to rise again before the midterms.
In Silver’s models, Trump and the Republicans were at their highest in early September, shortly after the August 27 low point in gasoline prices.
After cumulative losses of 1.7% over the last two trading sessions, the benchmark American stock index S&P was down 0.5% last Friday since October 16 and 2.5% from its October 6 high. But it remains up 9.8% from its peak in the week before the Iran war began in late February and 15.7% from its worst point of the Iran war in late March.
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