Top Democrats are tempering their expectations for the size of the majority they could win in the House, as both parties see an increasingly tight battleground.
The latest rounds of internal polling from both parties from mid-October show GOP candidates gaining ground in the Midwest and narrowing races in a key Colorado seat and elsewhere, according to six people familiar with the data who were granted anonymity to discuss it. The Republicans’ deluge of cash also appears to be helping shore up some imperiled seats in Florida, even as they face serious problems in North Carolina and Texas. The GOP reshuffled these three states in their favor during the Trump-induced redistricting cycle after the 2024 election.
Now, Democrats on Capitol Hill are beginning to privately warn some of their more aggressive colleagues that it appears very possible they won’t reach the 235-seat mark for their majority after the 2018 election, according to one of those people and two others with direct knowledge of the conversations.
“I don’t think anyone ever believed we would have numbers for 2018,” one House Democrat said. “I honestly think the results are going to be all over the place. Caution seems wise to me. But being optimistic is also a good place to be.”
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