VSan Francisco Bay Area residents overwhelmingly approved two transit measures this week that they hope will save the region’s financially struggling public transportation agencies from a potential death spiral that could have had massive impacts on the region’s residents and its economy.
The Regional Transit Measure (RTM), a 0.5% sales tax in four Bay Area counties and a 1% sales tax in San Francisco, will generate about $1 billion annually to fund the region’s four largest transit operators. She received strong support of 62.2% in the five counties that voted on the measure, winning by an overwhelming 78.6% in San Francisco.
In San Francisco, 73.6% of voters also approved a parcel tax to fund Muni, the first public transit agency in a major U.S. city.
If these measures had not been adopted, Bay Area Rapid Transit (Bart) would be forced to close up to 15 stations beginning early next year, significantly reducing the frequency of service and increasing the cost of trips and parking. Caltrain, a commuter train that connects San Francisco to the South Bay area, has reportedly closed 10 stations and ended weekend service. And Muni, the city of San Francisco’s main transit system, would have been forced to cut its service by a third, eliminate 20 bus lines and suspend its iconic streetcars and cable cars. All agencies should have ended evening services.
Less frequent service and fewer stations would have meant less fare revenue, fewer commuters and a downward cascade of financial austerity, creating a spiral of mass transit disaster that would have left Bay Area residents without reliable and affordable ways to get around the sprawling metropolis. The potential impacts were enormous in a region formed around a large body of water, where highways and bridges are notoriously clogged with traffic.
A recent report by Laura Tolkoff, director of transportation policy for the San Francisco Bay Area Planning and Urban Research Association, estimates that traffic delays on the San Francisco-Oakland Bay Bridge, which sees about 3.5 million crossings per month, and other chokepoints around the region would have more than doubled during rush hour.
Bay Area transit agencies have been particularly exposed to low ridership during the pandemic, given their reliance on fares for operating revenue and the region’s shift to nationally leading remote and hybrid work. As pandemic relief funds were about to expire and the fiscal cliff became visible, transit advocates sprang into action.
In 2023, Connect Bay Area organizer Lian Chang got involved in the fight to save public transportation by making cardboard coffins and replicas of local trains and buses for a mock funeral procession in front of City Hall. These cardboard replicas have covered considerable mileage since then, with some requiring new paint jobs as they circulated from news conferences to campaign events and rallies, Chang said.
She had no campaigning experience then, but has since helped rally volunteers by painting numerous bank boxes on buses and trains to bear the signatures that put the measures on the ballot, adding a fun and visually striking element to the campaign.
The biggest challenge, according to Chang, was finding ways to get transit riders to identify and organize in constituencies. To create a sense of pride among transit riders, who are typically immigrants, children, seniors and low-income people, she worked with local designers to make buttons to distribute on specific bus routes slated for elimination. This also made it possible to recruit more volunteer signature collectors.
In the end, thousands of volunteers collected 77,000 of the 305,000 signatures that qualified the measure for the ballot, which the Connect Bay Area campaign says is the highest number in recent memory. “We are not experiencing a larger mobilization of signatures in the Bay Area,” Chang said.
The measures could still face legal challenges from anti-tax groups, as previous transit initiatives have been, tying up funds in escrow accounts for years.
“The Public Transit Revenue Measure District stands ready to vigorously defend the will of the voters and the validity of the measure,” said Rebecca Long of the Metropolitan Transportation Commission, the agency responsible for administering RTM funds.
Jeff Cretan, a spokesman for Connect Bay Area, the coalition that supported both initiatives, wants to keep the momentum going so voters don’t face another transit disaster when the measures expire in about 15 years.
“This is an opportunity for us to go to the state and say we need to change the way we do things, not just here, but in other parts of the state,” Cretan said.
Compared to other world-class regions in the United States and beyond, California has historically underinvested in public transportation in its urban centers, although it prides itself on robust climate policies.
A 2022 report from the California Air Resources Board said that for the state to meet its own climate goals, existing public transportation systems would need to double their capacity and frequency of service by 2030. Bart, AC Transit, Caltrain and Muni account for 30% of the state’s transit ridership. Yet only 5% of Bart’s operating revenue comes from the state.
Tuesday’s election also brought a wave of new leaders to the state. Transit advocates already see an ally in state Sen. Scott Wiener, who co-wrote the transit measures and won his bid to succeed Nancy Pelosi in Congress.
But they also hope that Gov.-elect Xavier Becerra will prioritize public transportation after winning strong support from Bay Area voters, even though he hasn’t made it a central issue in his gubernatorial campaign. (Becerra’s campaign did not respond to the Guardian’s request for comment.)
“I hope Governor Becerra and elected officials take note of the messages voters just sent: public transit is not controversial – it is essential and incredibly popular,” Tolkoff said.
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