The Dodgers are in the race for free agents Tarik Skubal but the framework of its possible agreement could be very important. Katie Woo of The Athletic reports that their interest would depend on whether Skubal is open to a short-term deal. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports that Skubal has no interest in this type of arrangement, which would appear to work against the Dodgers in the auction.
It’s not really a surprise to learn that the Dodgers are leaning in this direction. Although they have acquired a number of talented players over the years, they clearly prefer to avoid very long free agent contracts. In the last decade, they have only spent more than six years twice for a free agent, both times under special circumstances. One was for Shohei Ohtanithe other for Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Ohtani is a unicorn talent who signed a ten-year contract with the Dodgers, with almost all of the money deferred. Yamamoto was given a 12-year contract because he was unusually young, arriving from Japan before his age-25 season.
While it may seem like the Dodgers are always signing the best players, they are often happy to let them go elsewhere when the bidding is high. Juan Soto got 15 years from the Mets. Bryce Harper was 13 years old from the Phillies and Trea Turner 11 from this same club. Gerrit Cole And Max Frit got their contracts with the Yankees and Dylan Cease ended up with the Blue Jays.
In some of these cases, the Dodgers were involved but would only move forward if the player did not find a satisfactory long-term deal and became open to short-term deals. This approach has been described as “hanging around the backboard”.
It worked last year with Kyle Tucker. Although Tucker has received long-term offers, including from the Blue Jays, he has discussed short-term deals with the Mets and Dodgers. Both clubs offered huge average annual values in order to prevent the deal from stretching too far into the future. The Dodgers ultimately won by giving Tucker a four-year, $240 million guarantee, with opt-outs after the second and third years.
Woo’s reporting suggests the Dodgers will take a similar approach to Skubal this winter. They will definitely be involved but probably won’t win the auction if Skubal gets long-term deals he likes. In fact, Woo suggests the Dodgers probably won’t make a lucrative long-term offer to anyone, Skubal or otherwise. Woo’s report links this position to ongoing collective negotiations.
The economic future of baseball is unknown. The league imposes a salary cap, which the players oppose. It’s unclear how this will ultimately play out, but Woo suggests the Dodgers would prefer to avoid long-term deals while they wait to see what the new CBA looks like. There is also the case of owner Mark Walter, who sold various assets amid a financial and legal crisis. Despite this situation, Woo suggests the Dodgers are still able to offer Skubal a solid offer in terms of average annual value.
MLBTR predicted that Skubal would agree to a nine-year contract with $425 million guaranteed. Other media outlets have published comparable predictions. Passan’s report suggests that Skubal will target this deal long-term, so perhaps there is an opening for a club other than the Dodgers to jump in.
It was reported this week that the Mets would meet with Skubal next week, with the left-hander hoping to sign a deal before the lockout begins on December 2. Dodgers general manager Brandon Gomes later said he expected the Dodgers to also meet with Skubal soon. Ronald Blum of the Associated Press then reported that the Mets, Dodgers, Padres and three mystery teams would meet with Skubal. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported that the Blue Jays will also meet with Skubal, likely one of those three mystery clubs.
Time will tell where the bidding goes. If one of these clubs is more willing than the Dodgers to make a long-term commitment, it could help them emerge victorious. The Jays took seven years to sign Cease last winter and need rotation for next season. They have also been involved with a number of other high-profile free agents in recent years, including Ohtani and Soto.
The Padres have been very aggressive in pursuing big names. They signed Manny Machado, Alexandre Bogaerts and others to huge transactions. They have cut back on spending since Peter Seidler died in 2023, but the Seidler family sold the club to José E. Feliciano and Kwanza Jones this year. There are rumors that the change in ownership could allow them to spend aggressively again. They definitely need some rotation help, as virtually all of their starters just became free agents.
The Mets, as mentioned, took 15 years to sign Soto. President of baseball operations David Stearns has been fairly conservative in signing pitchers. He never gave a free agent a contract longer than three years, including his time managing the Mets and Brewers. Now might be the time to break this pattern. He has much more spending capacity with the Mets than he did with the Brewers and the rotation clearly needs help.
It’s also possible that owner Steve Cohen greenlights a big Skubal deal even if Stearns isn’t keen. It has been suggested that Cohen was directly involved with agent Scott Boras in the Soto deal. Cohen and Boras also reached a $315 million deal to Carlos Correa a few years ago, but it ultimately fell apart following Correa’s physical. Skubal is also portrayed by Boras, so perhaps the relationship with Cohen could be important again.
Perhaps more in-depth reporting will reveal who these mystery clubs are. Passan’s column says the Red Sox and White Sox are not involved. The Red Sox have spent a lot of money in the past, but it’s been over a decade since they signed one of the top free agents available. They signed Trevor’s Story, Alex Bregman And Ranger Suarez but those three deals combined total $390 million, likely less than Skubal could command alone. WEEI’s Rob Bradford reports that the Sox appear to be out Freddy Peralta also, so maybe they won’t make much noise on the rotation.
The White Sox are a fun pick for Skubal because they play in a big market, need pitching and have almost nothing on the books, but they have never given a player a guarantee greater than $75 million.
Photo courtesy of Katie Stratman, Imagn Images
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