Bad news continues to come out of the polls for German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. His party, the CDU (Christian Democratic Union), suffered two new disappointments during the regional elections in Berlin and in the Land of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, Sunday September 20.
Barely two weeks ago, the CDU already fell by almost 20 points in the state of Saxony-Anhalt to cede its place as the dominant political force to the far-right AfD party.
“A disaster” for Friedrich Merz
This time, the picture is not much rosier. In the German capital, the CDU certainly managed to remain in second position with 20% of the votes behind the big winners of the day, the radical left of Die Linke. But the conservative party lost more than 8 points.
It was especially in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania – the Land in the north-east of Germany on the border with Poland – that Friedrich Merz’s party suffered the biggest electoral defeat in its history while the AfD came in first. With 5.1% of the votes shortly after 6 p.m., it was not even clear whether at the end of the evening, the CDU would manage to stay above the threshold of 5% of the votes necessary to be represented in the regional Parliament. This would be a first in German political history.
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Cover image: © France 24
“No point trying to embellish the results in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, it’s a disaster,” admitted Friedrich Merz, who spoke shortly after the announcement of the first results. For his party, this electoral pill is all the more difficult to swallow as Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania represents the historic stronghold of Angela Merkel, the former German chancellor and tutelary figure of the CDU for more than 15 years.
In Berlin, where the results are certainly less catastrophic, the electoral decline probably signals the end of the CDU’s participation in a coalition government. A Red-Red-Green alliance (SPD, Die Linke and the Greens) seems best placed to obtain a majority in the German capital. “It’s all the more disappointing for the CDU because until recently it thought it could come out on top in Berlin,” said Ed Turner, a specialist in German politics at Aston University in Birmingham.
The most obvious sign of the open political crisis within the CDU is “the speed with which Friedrich Merz spoke just a few minutes after the first results. This is unprecedented for a chancellor”, assures Sarah Wagner, specialist in German politics at Queen’s University Belfast.
“A man’s back to the wall”
After the political shock of the AfD’s clear victory in Saxony-Anhalt, “it was Franziska Hoppermann, federal general secretary of the CDU, and not Friedrich Merz who was the first party official to comment on the party’s poor results”, underlines Ed Turner. The chancellor waited until the next day to discuss the vote, as if he wanted to put some distance between himself and the CDU’s low score.
Impossible this time. “In the election in Saxony-Anhalt, it was the AfD’s score that counted the most and the CDU’s poor result was one event among others. In Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, the rout of the CDU and the rejection of Friedrich Merz’s policies are central elements,” explains Sarah Wagner.
Also readAfD’s clear victory in Saxony-Anhalt threatens “the German political system”
By speaking as soon as the results were known, the chancellor “gave the impression of a man with his back to the wall who above all wants to silence rumors about his possible withdrawal as quickly as possible”, assures the political scientist. He, in fact, assured that “the best way to combat the extremes was to continue his reform program.”
Will his party continue to listen to him and support him? It is becoming more and more obvious that Friedrich Merz represents an electoral burden for the CDU. A poll carried out by ZDF, one of the main German television channels, revealed that for the 70% of CDU voters in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania the personality of Friedrich Merz is more of a liability than a plus for the party. Only 1% of these voters thought the opposite.
Certainly, the trifecta of bad results for the CDU in September (Saxony-Anhalt, Berlin and Mecklenburg Western Pomerania) mainly comes from the former East Germany. “It’s not the same electoral dynamic as in the western regions,” recognizes Ed Turner.
Survive until when?
However, this time these results seem to hit the nail on the head for Friedrich Merz. “He is currently the most unpopular chancellor in modern German history,” underlines Ed Turner. Its popularity level peaks at… 15%.
Despite this, the experts interviewed believe that Friedrich Merz still has a future as chancellor. “Four days before these elections, the CDU minister-presidents in Germany drafted a joint statement to support Friedrich Merz and assure that they were not seeking to replace him immediately,” notes Ed Turner.
Also readAfD victory in Saxony-Anhalt: the populist left making kings of the far right?
A status quo which suits the CDU for the moment “mainly for tactical reasons”, believes Sarah Wagner. If Friedrich Merz were pushed out, “there is a risk of early general elections which could see a new push from the extreme right”, she says.
The political survival of post-World War II Germany’s most unpopular chancellor is clearly hanging by a thread. To strengthen it, Friedrich Merz would need an electoral victory for the CDU somewhere in Germany… Only, there are no more elections before spring 2027.
The next important deadline for the CDU concerns the regional elections in North Rhine-Westphalia in April 2027. The chancellor’s party has a good chance of achieving a good score there… but this is not necessarily good news for Friedrich Merz: his party’s candidate, Hendrik Wüst, is considered his main rival. So, assures Ed Turner, “if the CDU wins these elections, as is likely, Friedrich Merz will not even be able to boast about it.”
