Eritrean troops crossing into Ethiopia’s Tigray region have been the target of drone attacks by government forces, increasing the risk that renewed internal conflict in Ethiopia could spark an all-out regional war between the neighboring countries.
Military vehicles carrying soldiers crossed Eritrea’s southern border into Tigray on Wednesday, reaching the town of Adigrat, 40 km to the south, according to civilian witnesses, a militia commander and the conflict monitoring group Acled.
Eritrean troops were then targeted by Ethiopian government drones on Wednesday evening and Thursday morning, Acled said.
Eritrea maintains a historic enmity with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), which launched an offensive against the Ethiopian government on September 23, but this previous hostility has been replaced by Eritrea’s desire to ward off the perceived risk of invasion of Ethiopia, in order to gain access to the Red Sea.
Over the past two weeks, the TPLF and six other armed groups in Ethiopia have fought the government in Tigray and the neighboring regions of Amhara and Afar. The Ethiopian army pushed back and an allied militia, the Tigray Peace Force, took control of Tigray’s regional capital, Mekelle, on October 4 after the TPLF withdrew from the city.
Eritrean Information Minister Yemane Ghebremeskel said in a statement: “Our mission is not to refute wild allegations or stories. » He neither explicitly confirmed nor denied the presence of Eritrean troops in Ethiopia.
The Ethiopian Foreign Ministry said in a statement on Monday: “Ethiopia stands ready to defend its sovereignty, territorial integrity and core national interests, while urging all regional actors to address common challenges through constructive dialogue, partnership and respect for the principles of good neighborliness rather than confrontation and zero-sum approaches. »
The TPLF and the Ethiopian government fought a brutal civil war from 2020 to 2022. Between 300,000 and 800,000 civilians died, according to British government estimates. Both sides and their allies have been accused of war crimes.
Eritrea intervened alongside Ethiopia in this conflict, after a rapprochement between the two countries in 2018, which earned Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize.
Eritrea, which gained independence from Ethiopia in 1993, has a long enmity with the TPLF, which ruled Ethiopia from 1991 to 2018. The two countries fought a war from 1998 to 2000.
Relations between the countries have deteriorated again in recent years. Abiy has said Ethiopia needs access to the Red Sea, and state media has claimed the country has historic rights to the Eritrean port of Assab. The US-Israeli war with Iran – which led Iran to limit shipping through the Strait of Hormuz – has further raised the stakes for access to the Red Sea.
In its statement on Monday, the Ethiopian Foreign Ministry said: “Any serious discussion on regional maritime affairs and security architecture must take into account Ethiopia’s legitimate interests and its enduring connection with the Red Sea. »
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Magnus Taylor, deputy director of the Crisis Group think tank on the Horn of Africa, said: “The big worry is that (Abiy) could try to solve all his problems at once, by invading Eritrea, possibly a regime change and also a land grab for the Red Sea port, and also solving his problem with Tigray at the same time. It’s a very ambitious military agenda, though.”
Although the full impact of the fighting on Tigrayan civilians is unclear, there have been reports of the TPLF forcibly recruiting boys as young as 15 to fight.
“Civilians in these three regions (Tigray, Amhara and Afar) have not been healed from the first cycle of violence which was stopped by the peace agreement (in 2022),” said Jalale Getachew Birru, analyst at Acled Ethiopia. “They just started healing recently.”
Associated Press contributed to this story
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