Being America’s most popular governor may not be enough to save Vermont’s Phil Scott from a historic upset, a new poll suggests.
A new University of New Hampshire (UNH) Green Mountain State poll released Sunday finds Democrat Amanda Janoo leading Republican incumbent 51 percent to 43 percent among likely voters, including those leaning toward one candidate. Independent Brian Judd had 4 percent.
“Republican Gov. Phil Scott has won re-election comfortably in recent years, but he is trailing Democrat Amanda Janoo in the final days of the 2026 campaign,” the poll’s press release said.
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UNH is the only pollster that gave Janoo the lead in the general election, and the most recent competing poll, from State Navigate, had Scott up 3 points last week (49 percent to 46 percent).
“We started this campaign with the goal of creating a movement of Vermonters who love this state,” Janoo said in a statement to News week react to the survey. “Vermonters who may not share the same backgrounds or lived experiences, but who believe we can do more for each other and our state than standing on the sidelines when things get tough. »
News week contacted Scott’s campaign for comment.
The most popular governor in the United States
In Morning Consult’s most recent state rankings, based on surveys of registered voters from April 1 to June 30, Scott had a net approval rating of +52, the highest of any governor. North Dakota Governor Kelly Armstrong followed at +50 and Wyoming Governor Mark Gordon followed at +49.
A Morning Consult ranking released in February puts his approval at 74 percent, with 19 percent disapproval, and ranks him as the most popular governor for the 14th consecutive quarter.
Vermont Public found his approval at 45 percent this fall, down 15 points from 2022. UNH had him at 47 percent approval and 47 percent disapproval in September. The State Navigate poll showed Scott with 58 percent approval.
Scott said this was his toughest race since his first victory in 2016, and he attributed much of that to Democratic enthusiasm.
Scott vs. Janoo, how racing has changed
Scott’s numbers have barely changed in UNH polls this year. It had 42 percent in June, 44 percent in July and 43 percent in September and October.
Janoo, however, has climbed over the same period, from 27 percent to 33 percent, then 49 percent and now 51 percent, UNH’s first number counting lean.
The partisan collapse shows why. Janoo wins Democrats 78 percent, up from 73 percent in September, while 20 percent sticks with Scott. Scott holds 85 percent of Republicans, including 10 percent for Judd, and independents between 51 percent and 39 percent. He wins 25 percent of voters from former Vice President Kamala Harris, while 38 percent of Janoo supporters say they voted for Scott in 2024.
The poll also found that Janoo, a 39-year-old economist who has never held office, was viewed favorably by 54 percent of likely voters and unfavorably by 29 percent. Scott’s numbers were 42 percent and 40 percent.
Sean McKinley, project director of the UNH Survey Center, said News week in September that Scott had “a little hill to climb.”
Democratic leaders initially hoped for a more established candidate. The party attempted to recruit Attorney General Charity Clark, Secretary of State Sarah Copeland Hanzas and Treasurer Mike Pieciak to replace Scott, but all three decided to seek re-election to their current positions.
What Vermont Voters Worry About
Money tops the list. When asked to name their most important issue, likely voters in the UNH poll most often cited affordability or inflation, at 17 percent, followed by economic health or financial security and tax burden or government spending, at 10 percent each.
Candidates are sharply divided on how to handle them. Janoo has proposed higher taxes on higher earners and universal primary care, a plan that independent Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders supported at a Winooski event last month. Scott argues the state has too few wealthy residents to support that burden. “A person makes a billion dollars, and when he’s gone, that’s it,” he said during an Oct. 21 debate.
Education is another dividing line, with Janoo opposing the forced school mergers she believes Scott’s overhaul would bring about. AI data centers also surfaced when Scott vetoed a bill regulating them in May, while Janoo supports a moratorium.
Scott vs. Janoo, what other polls say
The State Navigate survey of 1,752 likely voters, conducted Oct. 23-25, gave Scott a lead of 49 percent to 46 percent, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.3 percentage points. His poll from early October showed him up from 46 percent to 43 percent.
State Navigate also found that Scott retained 66 percent of his 2024 voters while 30 percent moved to Janoo. He won 25 percent of Democrats, a larger share than UNH found, and his approval for the job stood at 58 percent, with 40 percent disapproving.
A Vermont public poll conducted September 10-21 gave Scott his widest lead, 44 percent to 34 percent among likely voters, with 16 percent undecided.
Scott’s campaign has fought the UNH numbers since September, when campaign manager Dustin Degree called that month’s poll “statistical malpractice” and pointed to a sample that included far more Democrats than Republicans. The center’s final poll in 2024 gave Scott a 65 percent to 26 percent victory. He won 73.4 percent to 21.8 percent. Andrew Smith, the center’s director, then defended his methods while admitting that he had underestimated Scott’s margin.
UNH says its data was weighted in part by 2024 election results, and that its October sample was 60 percent Democrats, 29 percent Republicans and 11 percent independents.
The Cook Political Report upgraded the race from “Solid Republican” to “Likely Republican” last month. Sabato’s Crystal Ball and Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin have it at “Lean Republican.”
Polymarket and Kalshi both gave Scott about a 68% chance of winning on Monday.
National environment
Republicans face a difficult final week nationally before the midterm elections. A Reuters/Ipsos poll of likely voters showed Democrats leading the generic congressional poll 53 percent to 44 percent, while an NPR/PBS News/Marist poll had them up 52 percent to 44 percent, with Trump’s approval at 40 percent and disapproval at 59 percent.
Trump is far weaker in Vermont, where UNH rated him at 20% approval and 77% disapproval. Democrats are also more engaged, with 69 percent saying they are extremely interested in the election, compared to 59 percent of Republicans. Scott clashed with the White House over tariffs and National Guard deployments, among other issues.
Nearly 140,000 Vermonters had cast their ballots as of Friday morning, according to the Vermont Secretary of State’s office.
Contact News week editors for this story: Anthony Murray and Jason Lemon.
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