Gendebien vs. Constantino: New poll shows tight race in NY-21

ALBANY, NY —

A new Siena Research Institute poll taken in early October shows a tight race between Democrat Blake Gendebien and Republican Anthony Constantino in New York’s 21st Congressional District, which stretches from Saratoga to Watertown.

The poll, conducted for NBC5 News, the Albany Times-Union and WAMC Radio, surveyed nearly 500 likely voters. You can view the full survey results here.

The poll found 46% support for Gendebien and 42% for Constantino, with the apparent lead falling within the margin of error. Independent candidate Christopher Schmidt achieves a single-digit result, while 8% of voters remain undecided.

The poll also shed light on key issues shaping the race. Gendebien appears to have an advantage when it comes to affordability, health care and improved relations with Canada. Meanwhile, pollsters found that Constantino was ahead in the fight against undocumented immigrants living in New York.

A large number of voters indicated they had not yet made up their minds on these and other issues, suggesting that both candidates still have work to do as the race enters its home stretch.

Ron Seyb, a retired political science professor at Skidmore College, said the NY-21 race has clear national significance.

“This is one of the districts that is going to determine whether the Republicans continue to have the majority in the House of Representatives or whether the Democrats take over the House,” Seyb told NBC5 News on Friday. “I think this district is really in play for the first time in several election cycles.”

Seyb then told NBC5 News reporter Christian Gratto that given these national implications, voter turnout will be key to all campaigns.

“How much of a difference is my vote actually going to make? Well, in this race it can actually make a difference because, like I said, I think it’s going to be a pretty narrow margin,” Seyb said. “And again, the outcome will have real implications for control of the House of Representatives.”

Campaign ads take into account voters’ racial perceptions

Respondents were also asked if they thought each of the candidates was running a more positive race based on their experience and plans for the district, or if they viewed the campaign as negative, focused on attacking their opponent. A majority of respondents said they thought Gendebien was running a more positive campaign focused on these issues, while respondents said Constantino was running a more negative campaign focused on attacking his opponent.

Gendebien and Constantino react to poll data

Blake Gendebien’s campaign released a statement after the new poll was released, saying in part “While Constantino dominates the headlines, North Country residents of all parties are moving toward Blake.”

“He’s running a reality show. I’m looking to cut costs,” Constantino was quoted as saying in the statement. “Republicans, independents and Democrats are coming because they are tired of the circus.”

Constantino’s campaign also released a response to the poll, calling it “another fraudulent poll by a pollster with a long history favoring Democratic candidates.”

“Anthony Constantino wins NY-21 despite every media outlet trying to stop him at all costs,” a campaign spokesperson said.

Governor’s race data shows Blakeman leads Hochul

Meanwhile, data from the same poll shows Republican Bruce Blakeman leading among surveyed voters. When asked who they would vote for if the gubernatorial election were held today, 55 percent of respondents said they would vote for Blakeman. Meanwhile, 40% of voters said they would vote for Hochul. Five percent of those surveyed said they were unsure.

A total of 33 questions were included in the new survey. Respondents were asked to indicate how well they think President Donald Trump is doing in his second term and whether they think New York State is on the right track, among other things.

Respondent demographics and survey information

Responses from a total of 496 likely voters in New York’s Congressional District 21 were included in the poll, which was conducted between September 30 and October 6, 2026. Of those surveyed, 28% identified as Democrats, while 49% identified as Republicans. Twenty-three percent identified as independent.

When it comes to respondents’ area of ​​origin, 27% live in Saratoga, Warren and Washington counties, while 34% come from Herkimer, Fulton, Montgomery, Oneida and Schoharie counties. The remaining 39 percent came from Clinton, Essex, Franklin, Hamilton, Jefferson, Lewis and St. Lawrence counties.

Early voting in New York State begins October 24.