While most eyes in Texas were on the U.S. Senate race, the state’s gubernatorial election grew closer in the latter part of the campaign, with the Democratic challenger, state Rep. Gina Hinojosa, showing a potential lead over Republican Gov. Greg Abbott.
Abbott, who has held the position since 2015, was in the lead for much of the 2026 midterm campaign, but polls in recent weeks and days have shown Hinojosa winning over him.
Other recent polls have shown Abbott in the lead, a position he has dominated for much of the past few months in a state that has voted overwhelmingly for Republicans in statewide offices in recent decades.
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“Republicans might wish the election were yesterday or last week or last month because the political terrain continues to shift against them,” said Calvin Jillson, a professor at the Dedman College of Humanities and Sciences at Southern Methodist University in Dallas. News week.
“No one is more stunned than Greg Abbott to find himself in a horse race,” he continued. “He started 2026 with a war chest of $105 million to Hinojosa’s $3 or $4 million; he had 100% name recognition while Hinojosa was little known outside of his Texas House district. Abbott hasn’t done anything particularly wrong except being a visible member of the red team, and that could cost him dearly.”
News week contacted the Abbott and Hinojosa campaigns for comment via email Monday afternoon.
What the latest Texas governor polls show
In its final poll before Tuesday’s election, The New York Times/Siena showed Hinojosa one point ahead of Abbott, in a 48 to 47 percent split among 1,215 likely voters surveyed from Oct. 27 to Nov. 1. Another AtlasIntel poll, conducted Oct. 28 to Nov. 1 of 1,678 likely voters, showed the Democrat with 49 percent of the vote to Abbott’s 48 percent.
Abbott dominated the polls throughout the campaign, with polls in June and July putting him about 6 or 7 points ahead.
By mid-October, that lead had shrunk to a few points, with RealClearPolling classifying the race as a toss-up rather than a certain GOP victory.
Why numbers matter now
Texas hasn’t elected a Democratic governor in decades. Ann Richards was the last, in 1990, and Abbott has never lost a statewide election.
In 2022, Abbott beat former U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke by 10.9 points, a much larger margin than current polls suggest for the 2026 race.
Abbott, who has been a strong supporter of President Donald Trump and has taken his own hard line on border security, has also seen warning signs when it comes to voter demographics.
In an Oct. 21-25 Texas Southern University poll that gave Abbott the overall lead, Hinojosa won among independents, women and adults ages 18 to 34. on Sunday Times/A Siena poll also showed Hinojosa beating the current governor with women, adults ages 18 to 44, and black, Hispanic and other nonwhite voters.
Abbott’s overall message to voters is that Texas must remain conservative, economically strong and resilient to federal government excesses, while addressing household costs. He touted his record job growth during his three terms, as well as the number of businesses investing in the state.
Hinojosa said she believes voters are dissatisfied with both major parties and is proposing a “post-partisan” approach if elected, promising to tackle the data center problem that has plagued many midterm elections. She said Texans should not be forced to pay higher energy bills because of tech companies’ investments in the state.
The Greatest Texas Story
The Texas gubernatorial race has not tightened in isolation, with the U.S. Senate race between Republican Ken Paxton, the state’s attorney general, and Democratic state Rep. James Talarico shifting from a safe Republican race to one that forecasters now view as simply Republican.
In the same Times/Siena and AtlasIntel polls, Talarico led Paxton 50-43 and 51.3-45.4, respectively.
These leads come despite a significant effort by the Republican Party to cast doubt on Talarico’s policies and record in recent weeks. Trump campaigned for Paxton in Texas, during which he said the Republican nominee could be “a pain in the ass sometimes.”
Democrats hope they can flip the Senate seat along with a handful of other competitive seats across the country, amid discontent from voters who previously supported Trump and GOP candidates but have now expressed concerns about the cost of living.
At a recent campaign event, Talarico described the election as a battle between “the powers that be and the powers that should be,” accusing powerful interests of having “bought and paid for Ken Paxton.”
He said his campaign supports “teachers and nurses, farmers and ranchers” and other everyday Texans, adding: “These Texans are my team. They are the reason I’m in this race.”
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Jason Lemon and Shakeema Edwards.
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