Giorgia Meloni wrong-footed the Kremlin

On November 5, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni asked European Council President António Costa a question that the European Union has left unanswered for too long. Who has the authority to speak for the EU in negotiations to end Russia’s war against Ukraine?

In his letter to Costa, Meloni highlighted a series of uncoordinated diplomatic initiatives, including one-on-one talks between European leaders and Vladimir Putin. She called for a decision at the December summit and made clear that she was seeking this role neither for herself nor for Italy. At a time when Moscow is counting on European divisions, the Prime Minister of one of the largest countries in the EU has asked her fellow leaders to agree on who will speak on their behalf.

Four years ago, many expected Meloni herself to be the cause of such division. His party had its roots in Italy’s post-fascist tradition, and its coalition partners gave plenty of ammunition to its critics. Silvio Berlusconi has spoken openly about his friendship with Putin. Matteo Salvini has spent years expressing sympathy for the Kremlin. It was expected that, under Meloni, Italy would become the West’s weak link in Ukraine.

The line she drew with Berlusconi

Meloni made his position clear even before taking office. When Berlusconi sought to excuse the invasion of Moscow and attacked Volodymyr Zelensky in the fall of 2022, she told him that there would be no place in his government for parties that rejected Italy’s European and Atlantic commitments. She needed Berlusconi to form a coalition. Yet she chose Russia and Ukraine as issues on which she would not compromise.

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In doing so, Meloni asked Europe’s right a question that many of its politicians would still prefer to avoid. If patriotism is based on the right of a people to determine their own future, what could be more patriotic than Ukraine’s resistance to Russian occupation? No one can credibly defend their own country’s sovereignty while accepting Russia’s supposed right to forcefully dictate the borders and government of a neighboring country. Yet some European nationalists are trying to reconcile these positions by seeing Moscow’s territorial demands as the basis for peace.

At the Crimea Platform summit on August 23, 2023, Meloni reminded his audience that Russian aggression began in 2014, with the seizure of Crimea and the occupation of parts of Donbass. She also acknowledged that Western governments were wrong to assume that Putin would stop there. After Crimea, major trade deals continued, energy ties persisted, and diplomats attempted to bring relations with Moscow within acceptable limits. Putin learned the lesson that military conquest could become an accepted political fact. Ukraine had to live with the consequences.

“Your freedom is freedom for all of Europe,” Meloni told Ukrainians that day.

This argument has particular force for Italy. If Russia succeeds in forcing Ukraine to cede territory and accept limits on its independence, the next European country it threatens will find itself facing a Kremlin with good reason to believe that aggression pays. If this country becomes a member of NATO, Italy and its allies would face a choice between a military response and abandoning their commitment to collective defense. Either would come at a considerable cost. It is much wiser to avoid this dilemma while Ukrainians continue to fight against the aggressor themselves.

What supporting Ukraine could cost him

Meloni is ready to make this point to Italian voters. In September, she told the newspaper Il Foglio that, from a purely electoral point of view, it would have been easier not to support Ukraine. Ahead of next year’s elections, she has ruled out an alliance with parties that vote against military aid to kyiv.

Salvini opposes further arms deliveries and some right-wing voters want closer ties with Moscow and an end to sanctions. Each new package for kyiv gives Meloni’s coalition partners the opportunity to reopen the debate. She had ample opportunity to reduce her assistance and avoid confrontation.

Instead, his government is preparing a 13th military assistance program for Kyiv. Italy has already supplied air defense equipment and Defense Minister Guido Crosetto said he would seek to extend aid deals until 2027 despite opposition within the coalition. In 2025, Rome also hosted the Ukraine Reconstruction Conference, bringing together governments, financial institutions and businesses to plan Ukraine’s reconstruction.

Putin’s strategy toward the West depends in part on the hope that elections will ultimately deliver what his military cannot. He has a vested interest in Italian politicians turning every shipment of air defense equipment into an argument about what it could cost them in the election. Ukrainian families, meanwhile, are raising children for whom air raid sirens are an ordinary part of life. They know precisely what an air defense shortage can cost.

From Trump’s diesel deal to December summit

On October 14, this same understanding of Italian interests put Meloni at odds with Donald Trump. Speaking before the Italian parliament, she called the deal with Russia on diesel supplies a very risky decision. She warned the deal could give Moscow additional revenue to finance its war, weaken sanctions and provide legitimacy to Russia as Russian bombs continued to fall on Ukrainian cities.

Meloni shares much of Trump’s conservative outlook and has invested in a good relationship with his administration. This is what gives weight to his criticisms. Relations with the United States are the cornerstone of European security. But a European leader who believes a U.S. move will help prop up Russia’s war economy should be able to say so publicly. Meloni did it.

His letter to Costa brings the debate back to Europe. Individual leaders can speak with Putin, but who gave any of them the mandate to speak on behalf of other member states? Meloni wants the EU to agree on a representative at its December summit and coordinate with Britain, Norway and other partners. Costa agreed to raise the issue with EU leaders. By refusing to appear, Meloni left it to his colleagues to answer the question on the merits. If they want Europe’s interests to be represented in the negotiations, they must decide who has the power to represent them.

In 2022, many would judge Meloni based on his party’s origins and his coalition partners’ ties to Moscow. Four years later, they can judge her on her decisions. She drew a line with Berlusconi when she needed his support to take office. She challenged Trump over a deal she said would help finance the Russian war. And she explained to her own voters why Ukraine’s defense is important to Italy, even if some of them vote against it.

Those who dismissed Meloni as just another European populist must honestly admit to the public that they were wrong. As for her fellow European leaders, they may remember what she said to Ukrainians in 2023. If Ukrainian freedom is the freedom of all of Europe, surely it is worth risking an election.