November 14, 2026, 6:04 a.m. ET
“The first warning shot of winter” has hit the Northeast, according to the National Weather Service.
Parts of New York have seen more than a foot of snow and much of the eastern half of the country is facing lows in the 20s and 30s.
But a change is coming, just in time for a milder Thanksgiving Day in less than two weeks, according to weather forecasts that are starting to take shape.
By then, the current cold snap felt across much of the eastern half of the country should be a distant memory, as it will slowly ease by mid-November, forecasters say, to be replaced by above-average temperatures. In fact, the unusual warmth is expected to be widespread around November 20, encompassing all areas east of the Rockies, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) said. Only the Far West will experience cooler than average temperatures at this time, the PCC said.
And overall, the week of Thanksgiving is expected to bring a mild trend across much of the United States, according to Anthony Artusa, a meteorologist at the Climate Prediction Center. “Most of the country will experience above average temperatures that week,” he told USA TODAY. It won’t be record heat, but it will be quite warm compared to normal, he added.
An exception, he said, will be the southern Plains, where cool temperatures are expected. “Oklahoma and Texas could see their first freeze of the season that week,” Artusa said.
Perhaps more important than the overall mild temperatures is the fact that Artusa is not experiencing powerful storms that week, so major and widespread travel disruptions could be avoided this year.
But there will still be some tricky travel spots, according to AccuWeather.
Thanksgiving Week Forecast
In addition to expected mild weather, the general weather pattern for Thanksgiving week includes rainy weather across the southern part of the country, as well as California, where snow will fall at higher elevations, AccuWeather said.
“Travel will be disrupted by heavy rain and thunderstorms in a few southern locations,” AccuWeather expert meteorologist Chad Merrill said in an email to USA TODAY. “It will be unusually hot in parts of the south and east for a few days during the week, then it will get cooler,” he said.
Elsewhere, mainly dry weather is forecast for the northern part, including the heavily populated and busy northeast.
Thanksgiving Week Weather Forecast for the East
The Northeast is expected to start the Thanksgiving travel week mostly dry and comfortable, but the potential for rain could increase across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast later in the week, according to AccuWeather.
For the Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade in New York, mostly dry conditions are expected, although it may be a little chilly early in the day. “For a Thanksgiving parade, the daytime peak doesn’t tell the whole story. People along the route early in the morning may experience a chill even if conditions remain dry,” Merrill said.
As Thanksgiving week ends, rain potential could increase across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, with cooler air expected from the end of the holiday weekend into early December, AccuWeather said.
Weather forecast for Thanksgiving week in the central United States
For travelers starting their Thanksgiving travel early, the route through parts of Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas could see heavier rain and severe thunderstorms during the first part of the Thanksgiving travel week, according to the AccuWeather forecast.
Farther north, much of the Midwest and Ohio Valley are expected to remain mostly rain-free and warmer than average through Thanksgiving. Chicago’s Thanksgiving Day Parade is expected to be mostly dry, with comfortable conditions and a temperature near 51 degrees, AccuWeather predicts.
Later in the week, another period of wet weather is possible across the southern Plains. Additionally, colder air could reach the Midwest and Ohio Valley, with rain or snow showers possible.
Colder air will also move into the Great Lakes late this week and likely bring a few snow showers, AccuWeather said.
Weather Forecast for Thanksgiving Week in the South
From backyard soccer to driving to Thanksgiving dinner, plans across the Gulf Coast and Southeast could require a rain backup, according to AccuWeather’s forecast. Periods of rain are possible during Thanksgiving week, with a few thunderstorms capable of bringing heavier precipitation. Some areas could also see rain and cooler conditions on Thanksgiving Day.
“A Thanksgiving forecast that includes rain doesn’t automatically mean the entire day will be a disaster. Timing matters,” Merrill said. “A downpour during the commute or an outdoor gathering could change plans, while rain overnight could barely interrupt them,” he added.
Forecasters are monitoring whether a southern storm could move northeast around Thanksgiving or stay near the Southeast coast, AccuWeather said.
Weather Forecast for Thanksgiving Week in the West
NOAA’s Artusa said that on the West Coast there could be storms coming in from the Pacific Ocean, which would bring rain to Oregon, as well as northern and central California.
However, “I’m not really sure the moisture will reach the coast,” Artusa said.
Additionally, AccuWeather said some snow is expected at higher elevations in the western mountains (particularly the Sierra Nevada), making the West a region to watch for people looking to ski during the holiday week.
Doyle Rice is a national correspondent for USA TODAY, specializing in weather and climate.
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