Enjoy it while it lasts, college football fans.
We’re entering the home stretch of the 12-team playoff era, with further expansion expected to begin next seasonwhich leaves less deliberation in the hands of the selection committee and more opportunities for teams to claw their way into the playoffs.
This is the fourth time in the past two decades that the way college football determines its national champions has changed, starting with the Bowl Championship Series (1998-2013), leading to the four-team playoffs (2014-2023) and culminating with the current 12-team system.
In the BCS era, three equally weighted elements were used to determine each team’s BCS “score” and produce a ranking: the Interactive Harris Poll, the Coaches Poll, and computers. The “computers” were a combination of distinct classifications (Billingsley, Colley, Massey, Sagarin, Wolfe) into a single value system.
The AP Poll replaced the Harris Interactive Poll in the formula in 2004. Before the three-tier system in 2004, schedule stringency, quality gains and other factors were included, making the process more subjective than the widely accepted rating system.
Via BCSKnowHow, here’s what the current top 25 would look like in the simulated BCS rankings before Tuesday night’s second CFP rankings reveal.
College Football Power Rankings: Notre Dame climbs to No. 2 amid shakeup after wild Week 10
Brandon Marcello
1. Georgia
BCS score: 0.9694
Who made the Bulldogs angry? Georgia played angry Saturday night at Ole Miss, taking a 35-0 lead in a loss to the Rebels. Rightly assuming the No. 1 spot in Sunday’s updated AP poll, we predict Georgia will also be No. 1 in the selection committee’s second rankings. Only Missouri and South Carolina remain on the SEC roster for a team that looks up to par en route to Atlanta and another CFP appearance.
2. Utah
BCS score: 0.9326
A jump of five spots in this week’s BCS formula, the Utes’ victory over BYU impressed the computers. The Utes have the inside track to a Big 12 Championship Game berth and a top-4 seed in the CFP if they can keep this momentum going. Dark horse Heisman candidate Devon Dampier should see a surge in prominence if the Utes enter conference title weekend unblemished at 12-0.
3. Notre Dame
BCS score: 0.8868
Marcus Freeman’s demand to “leave no doubt” came to fruition when the Fighting Irish earned a marquee victory over previously top-ranked Miami in Week 10. That all but assures Notre Dame of its first trip to the CFP bracket since 2024, as long as this team takes care of business over the next three weeks. Notre Dame has climbed the BCS rankings and is now projected to be in the top 5 on Tuesday night.
4.UCLA
BCS score: 0.8524
Second of two undefeated on the field, the Bruins continue to prove doubters wrong under first-year coach Bob Chesney. Saturday’s win at Minnesota was a fashionable choice in the week leading up to kickoff, given the cross-country travel and the start of the game, but that didn’t matter to UCLA. The program’s ninth straight victory puts the Bruins in control of the Big Ten over the past few weeks.
5.Miami
BCS score: 0.8257
Ranked No. 1 according to the BCS formula in last week’s CFP reveal, the Hurricanes dropped four spots to No. 4 after losing to Notre Dame on Saturday night, 31-24, without their top offensive playmaker Malachi Toney. Unlike human voting, computers do not take into account the absences of impactful players. Objectively, everything depends on the result on the ground. This is exactly where we expect the selection committee to put the Hurricanes at their No. 2 ranking as well.
6.Alabama
BCS score: 0.7878
Alabama is viewed more favorably by the selection committee than the computers suggest, and that will only improve Tuesday night after the Crimson Tide’s declared victory at LSU. This team is hitting its stride after losing two games last month in the SEC and only has to face Vanderbilt, Chattanooga and Auburn before an appearance in the SEC Championship – the last of its kind with the CFP expanding to 24 teams in 2027.
7. Indiana
BCS score: 0.7785
While the Hoosiers were inactive in Week 10, Curt Cignetti’s team fell a few spots as eight of Indiana’s nine teams in its Big Ten schedule lost this weekend. That hurts the overall resume of the defending Big Ten champions, who host USC this weekend in what amounts to a huge matchup for both programs in the CFP discussion and Big Ten title race.
8.Texas
BCS score: 0.7404
That now makes four ranked wins this season for the Longhorns, the most in college football after Saturday’s late escape from Missouri. This team’s ceiling is among the highest in the country, and Steve Sarkisian has done a great job this fall of getting Texas to play its best against marquee opponents. At 7-2 overall, we think the Longhorns could lose on Saturday at LSU and still make the CFP bracket as an at-large selection with nine wins. This BCS ranking seems to fit with the view that Texas is the second-best two-loss SEC team.
9.Tennessee
BCS score: 0.6373
Speaking of two-loss SEC teams, the Vols gained momentum after beating Kentucky by 28 points at home. The Wildcats fell to 13th with this setback and need to win to reach the CFP bracket given their resume. Tennessee, on the other hand, may have some margin for error. It depends on where the selection committee ranks the Vols on Tuesday night compared to Alabama. This should be much closer than last week’s eight-point difference.
10. Texas Technology
BCS score: 0.5753
Second of three Big 12 teams in the top 12 of the BCS formula, the Red Raiders held off West Virginia despite a horrible defensive performance. They’ve been achieving it on the field since replacing Thomas Castellanos as the starting quarterback, and they remain masters of their own destiny in the CFP and Big 12 conversation by winning.
Ohio State’s season has taken a nosedive over the past two weeks after back-to-back losses to USC and Oregon. From undefeated and ranked No. 2 in the BCS rankings to now barely inside the top 20, the chances are slim that the Buckeyes can get back into the CFP discussion with three games remaining against unranked competition.
Ole Miss is the highest ranked of the four three-loss teams in the top 25 at 17th, but this isn’t the BCS era. The selection committee will likely push the Rebels past that number after a 35-point home loss to Georgia. It’s the second poor mark this fall for a team that lost by 24 points earlier in Florida.
LSU and South Carolina, with three losses, are trailing at the bottom of the BCS standings. We expect the Gamecocks to be ranked higher than the Tigers this week after their fourth straight win and LSU’s blowout loss at home to Alabama. South Carolina hosts top-ranked Georgia in two weeks, but must beat Arkansas this weekend for it to count.
Gn sports
