Hurricane Isaias intensified into a major Category 3 hurricane Friday morning with winds of 120 mph and is expected to make landfall this evening on the Florida Panhandle, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Following a special NHC advisory issued at 8:20 a.m., the storm upgraded to Category 3 with winds of 120 mph and higher gusts. It was located approximately 240 miles south of Pensacola, Florida and 170 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River, moving north-northeast at 15 mph.
“We know this is going to be a major event one way or another,” Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said during a news conference at the Escambia County Emergency Operations Center. “There are going to be major impacts throughout the Florida Panhandle.”
The NHC said Isaias could continue to intensify over the next 12 hours as it moves over very warm and deep water.
“However, a large increase in shear is expected prior to landfall, which will likely result in some weakening,” said Eric Blake, NHC senior hurricane specialist.
For now, the NHC predicts it will weaken to a strong Category 2 hurricane making landfall Friday evening or early Saturday morning.
Blake said a delay in wind shear could mean a stronger hurricane could make landfall, however.
“Regardless of the exact wind speed when it makes landfall, Isaias will be a dangerous hurricane with significant storm surge, damaging winds and torrential rain,” Blake said. “The wind field is also expected to grow due to trough interaction, and some of these impacts will extend well away from the center.”
Hurricane force winds extend 30 miles while tropical storm force winds extend 185 miles from its center.
A hurricane warning is in effect from the western Bay-Gulf County line in Florida to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, with a tropical storm warning in Florida east of the Bay-Gulf County line to the Aucilla River and west of Ocean Springs to the Jefferson-Plaquemines Parish line in Louisiana. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect from the mouth of the Mississippi River to the Suwannee River in Florida and a Storm Surge Watch further south to Yankeetown, Florida.
“Life-threatening storm surge is expected from the mouth of the Mississippi River to Suwannee, Florida. Residents in the warning area should follow the advice given by local authorities and evacuate immediately if asked to do so,” the NHC warned.
DeSantis expanded a state of emergency to 27 counties in North Florida. The Florida National Guard is mobilizing approximately 5,000 personnel along with hundreds more from the Florida State Guard, Florida Fish and Wildlife and the Florida Department of Law Enforcement.
About 6,000 utility company linemen were dispatched to respond to downed power lines following the storm.
“Resources flooded in. Preparations were extensive and we took this storm very, very seriously,” he said.
4:00 a.m. CDT Friday, October 9 (Advisory 11) Key messages regarding Hurricane #Isaias. Latest information: https://t.co/GrztW6mQJV
4:00 a.m. CDT October 9 (Advisory 11) Key Messages on Huracan #Isaias. More information: https://t.co/GrztW6mQJV pic.twitter.com/3d2UKzGIlE
— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) October 9, 2026
Additionally, parts of Florida, from the Panhandle to the Big Bend, could see the heaviest rainfall, up to 15 inches, as storm bands pass over the state.
The Big Bend region was hit two years ago by three consecutive hurricanes when Debby, Helene and Milton all made landfall and flooded coastal towns like Steinhatchee and Cedar Key. And it also happened a year after Hurricane Idalia hit the Big Bend.
Hurricane Isaias, however, is targeting an area that was last hit in 2020 when Hurricane Sally made landfall just west of the Alabama-Florida border, near Gulf Shores.
“If you have received instructions to evacuate… please heed those instructions,” DeSantis said.
From Friday through the weekend, it is expected to fall 3 to 7 inches across the central U.S. Gulf Coast, from west Florida to southeast Louisiana. An additional 1 to 3 inches, with up to 5 inches, could fall across much of the southeastern United States, extending into the northern Tennessee Valley and Carolinas, leading to flash and urban flooding as well as isolated river flooding.
Hurricane Isaias rapidly intensified into a Category 2 storm on Thursday, becoming the first Atlantic hurricane of the season on Wednesday evening.
Coastal communities quickly prepared. Some Gulf oil wells halted production and at least four Florida school districts canceled classes later in the week. Okaloosa County announced mandatory evacuations for some coastal areas and communities closed government offices Thursday afternoon.
Hurricane Isaias tracking map: here are the latest forecasts and alert areas
Besides wind, hurricane threats include possible tornadoes Friday night on the Florida and Alabama coasts, storm surges of up to seven feet on parts of the Gulf Coast and excessive rain.
“Residents in the alert area should follow the advice given by local authorities and evacuate immediately if asked to do so,” the NHC warned.
The storm will also bring large swells to the Florida Gulf Coast, with life-threatening wave and rip current conditions.
The system formed as Tropical Depression Nine on Tuesday, became a tropical storm on Wednesday morning and the first hurricane of the Atlantic season at 11:30 p.m. on Wednesday, ending the longest period without a hurricane since satellite tracking began 60 years ago.
The storm formed just before tying a 121-year-old record as the last initial hurricane of the Atlantic season. According to the National Weather Service, the record dates back to 1905, when the first Atlantic hurricane of the year formed on October 8.
The hurricane season had already seen the formation of tropical storms Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edward, Fay, Gonzalo and Hanna.
However, for the first time in 60 years, none have developed into hurricanes in the Atlantic with less than two months left in the season.
Hurricane season began on June 1 and continues through November 30, but its peak is from mid-August to mid-October.
The lack of hurricanes is explained by the extremely powerful El Niño weather phenomenon, which warms the surface temperatures of the Pacific Ocean. This generates wind shear preventing storms from strengthening in the Atlantic.
Sammy Hadi, senior meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Miami, told the South Florida Sun Sentinel last week that “the tops of these storms that are developing are being washed away.”
In August, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration updated its seasonal forecast and predicts between seven and 13 named storms this year. Of these, two to six would become hurricanes. He also predicts that there may be no major hurricanes this year, or at most two.
Already, below-average storm generation was predicted in 2026, and that has been reduced further with the latest forecasts from NOAA and other weather groups.
An average year would see 14 named storms and seven hurricanes, three of which would reach Category 3 or higher.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
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