European leaders have refused to budge on the bloc’s next long-term budget and have openly expressed doubts about whether a deal can be reached by the end of the year, a slip-up that would lead to significant delays and a collision with a series of national elections.
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Until now, capitals had committed to reaching a final agreement by December 2026. But at Thursday’s summit in Brussels, where negotiations lasted longer than expected, a growing number of governments are questioning whether this is really necessary.
“We cannot reach an agreement this month. Not next month. I don’t even know if it is possible to reach an agreement before the end of the year,” said Sweden’s interim Prime Minister, Ulf Kristersson. “I think we’re in no hurry.”
For months, the President of the European Council, António Costa, has been repeating that leaders must unanimously adopt the next seven-year budget, the multiannual financial framework (MFF), by December at the latest.
If negotiations extend into 2027, he warns, there will not be enough time to complete the complex legislative work needed to have the budget operational by January 1, 2028.
After the inconclusive summit, during which the Irish presidency’s compromise proposal to reduce the overall volume of 141 billion euros was largely rejected, Costa will resume negotiations, which was widely expected.
The President of the European Council must present in a few weeks a new negotiation proposal, which will necessarily follow a logic completely different from that of Ireland. EU leaders have been summoned for a special summit on November 26.
In particular, Costa’s proposal should keep national contributions low, a new EU-wide tax package to finance the budget, and maintain sufficient flexibility for unforeseen spending, a budget line that the Irish proposal significantly reduced.
Already before the summit, the draft joint conclusions had been watered down regarding the deadline, softening the wording which explicitly stated “the objective of reaching a final agreement by the end of the year”.
On the other hand, the final text specifies that “an agreement before the end of 2026 would allow the adoption of legislative acts in 2027, which is necessary to ensure that EU funding reaches beneficiaries without interruption in January 2028”.
Speaking ahead of the summit, several leaders made clear that they did not feel bound by an end-of-year timetable because it would be extremely difficult to explain to their domestic audiences that they agreed to a bad deal because of an artificial deadline.
“The date cannot become more important than the content,” Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni told the Senate on Wednesday.
“We will not sign an agreement that is not beneficial to us just to meet a deadline. We will only sign an agreement when it suits Italy.”
However, there is no consensus on what a “good deal” looks like. Every government wants to squeeze as much as possible from the EU budget while contributing as little as possible.
The main battle line pits two camps: the so-called “frugals,” a German-led coalition of six net contributors pushing for deep reductions in overall volume, and the Friends of Cohesion, a bloc of 17 countries from the South and East fighting to preserve traditional funding programs for poorer regions.
But the camps are not monolithic. Some Friends of Cohesion, such as Spain and Italy, have direct interests in agricultural funds. Others, like the Baltics, want to increase their defense spending because of their proximity to Russia.
Among thrifty countries, Germany and Sweden are considered the most radical, while Finland favors agricultural subsidies. France, the bloc’s second largest economy, has not yet chosen its side, stuck between its European ambitions and a galloping budget deficit.
Belgium and Luxembourg are hesitating somewhere between the factions.
“Ultimately we need a good multiannual financial framework. So, of course, everyone wants to move faster. But it is more important to have a good deal than a bad deal,” said Dutch Prime Minister Rob Jetten.
In other words, the red lines are so entrenched and the margin for compromise so slim that a landing zone currently looks like a mirage.
In Brussels circles, agreements on sensitive issues are only concluded under strong time pressure, because neither party feels obliged to make concessions until the last minute. Signaling that you do not feel bound by a deadline can therefore be a negotiation tactic to hold your ground.
For EU officials, the series of elections scheduled for 2027 in France, Italy, Poland, Finland, Estonia, Slovakia and Greece are even more worrying than the potential delay in funding programs. Some fear that if no deal is reached by the end of the year, the deal could be delayed until fall 2027.
Paris is a particular concern. Far-right candidate Marine Le Pen is currently the favorite to win the presidential race and she has promised to cap France’s contribution at 5 billion euros a year, a sharp drop from the current level of around 8 billion euros.
Furthermore, the elections in Spain, where voters will go to the polls on November 29, and in Sweden, which voted in September, “are likely to create problems”, declared Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides.
Christodoulides reiterated the need to reach an agreement by the end of the year. He is one of the rare European leaders to still say it.
Gn world
