Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) says new US attacks could prompt Tehran to invade neighboring countries and strike bases used in US military operations as part of its new “offensive” strategy.
Wednesday’s warning came amid increasing attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, a global energy bottleneck, and uncertainty over diplomatic efforts to end the nearly eight-month war.
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“Our defense doctrine was previously defensive; we used to say that if a country attacks us, we will respond. Now we say that if a country attacks us, we will respond and launch an offensive,” said IRGC spokesperson Hossein Mohebi.
Washington has ordered some diplomatic personnel to leave Saudi Arabia amid attacks by Yemen’s Houthis, while US President Donald Trump signaled a decision on the conflict could be made soon.
According to media reports, the United States and Israel are planning possible attacks on Iran in the coming weeks.
With negotiations seemingly at a standstill and both sides exchanging threats, could the region be heading towards a new military escalation?
What is the new Iranian doctrine?
The IRGC announced on Wednesday its evolution towards an “offensive and asymmetric” defense doctrine, threatening to invade countries that launch attacks against it.
Mohebi said Tehran would no longer limit its military operations to retaliatory strikes.
Mohebi pointed out that Iran’s missile stockpile has increased 1.5 times since the 12-day war between Iran and Israel in June 2025. He did not provide specific figures.
“The quality of missiles has significantly improved, and their range, destructive power and accuracy in hitting targets have increased,” the spokesperson said.
Additionally, Mohebi said Iranian forces were “preparing to unveil the ‘father of all bombs.’ This is something new for the enemy.”
Meanwhile, attacks in the Strait of Hormuz have continued unabated.
The IRGC navy said Thursday that four ships it accused of being involved in illegal oil transfers were struck and caught fire in the northern Gulf. Three other ships struck mines west of the strait, the statement added.
Before the war, a fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas reserves passed through the Strait of Hormuz. Although shipments through the strait remain below those levels, the region’s oil shipments returned to pre-war levels last month as exporters found other ways to move their oil and gas, including using pipelines.
However, a series of recent attacks in this key waterway and fighting between Yemen’s Houthis and its internationally recognized and Saudi-backed government, which has resulted in Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, have once again pushed up oil prices. Brent crude soared above $110 a barrel on Thursday, amid fears of further disruption to regional energy supplies.
Why this change?
Iran’s move toward an offensive military doctrine reflects Tehran’s determination to make future U.S.-Israeli attacks much more costly, analysts say.
Negar Mortazavi, a senior fellow at the Center for International Policy, told Al Jazeera that Tehran was learning lessons from the 2025 and 2026 wars after its previous retaliatory strategy failed to prevent repeated attacks.
“Tehran now wants to establish a new equation: any future attack on Iran will come at a much higher cost for the aggressors,” she told Al Jazeera.
Unable to match conventional U.S. military capabilities, Iran increasingly relies on asymmetric warfare, including missiles, drones and its influence over the Strait of Hormuz, Mortazavi said.
She said Tehran was pursuing a broader strategy aimed at imposing military, economic and political costs on Washington, including potentially influencing the November 3 US midterm elections.
“Iran wants to teach Washington a lesson: attacking Iran has a high price, which may even cost elections,” Mortazavi said, referring to US surveys that predict electoral losses for Trump’s Republican Party.
She added that Iranian officials were closely watching the election, believing that the economic fallout from the war could hurt the Republican Party’s chances of retaining control of Congress.
“The long-term goal is to establish deterrence so that future U.S. administrations will think twice before daring to attack Iran again,” she said.
Political analyst Rami Khouri said the doctrine also aims to ensure that the consequences of attacks extend to the United States, Israel and regional countries supporting their military operations.
“This is part of the strategy, that the suffering and damage must be equal and reciprocal,” Khouri, a non-resident senior researcher at the Arab Center, told Al Jazeera.
Khouri argued that Tehran was also seeking to challenge what it sees as long-standing Western dominance over the region.
“The Iranians are actually working to end the colonial period,” he said.
He added that Iran’s strategy could extend the economic consequences of the conflict well beyond the Middle East, affecting energy supplies, transportation, insurance costs and shipments of essential goods.
“The pain will extend far beyond the Middle East, Israel and the United States and affect people in other parts of the world,” Khouri said.
What has the United States said about resuming war?
Trump has issued mixed signals about Washington’s next steps.
On Wednesday, he said the United States was no longer negotiating with Tehran and suggested developments were imminent. “We’re going to have something one way or another that happens fairly soon,” he told reporters.
He also said Washington could end the war immediately, but wanted a lasting outcome. “It’s going to end very soon. We could leave now, but we want to make sure it lasts a long time,” Trump said at a campaign rally in South Carolina.
Trump previously pledged not to attack Iran before the Nov. 3 election.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said this week that reaching a peace deal was extremely difficult and insisted that Iran must stop targeting commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
In recent weeks, Iran’s uranium enrichment has re-emerged as a point of contention.
Rubio said Washington would reject any deal that would allow Iran to develop nuclear weapons, which require highly enriched uranium. “The United States will not support any agreement that would allow Iran to one day acquire nuclear weapons,” he said Wednesday.
Tehran has insisted that its right to enrichment is guaranteed by the Non-Proliferation Treaty.
Iran has proposed a seven-day plan to restore navigation in the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for ending Washington’s blockade of Iranian ports, easing sanctions and unfreezing Iranian assets.
Separately, the US State Department on Wednesday ordered non-emergency personnel and their families to leave Saudi Arabia following recent Houthi attacks.
The US Embassy in Riyadh warned of further attacks while US officials told the Reuters news agency that family members could be removed from other missions in the Gulf.
State Department spokesman Tommy Piggott said orders for personnel from missions across the Gulf to leave had not been ordered, saying the current orders affected “employees and their family members in Saudi Arabia only.”
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday reiterated his commitment to overthrowing Iran’s government, saying it was essential to prevent it from rebuilding its nuclear program and the “axis of resistance”, raising the prospects of an escalation.
Netanyahu made the comments as Israel’s longest-serving prime minister faces an uphill battle to stay in power in Tuesday’s election.
Is war imminent?
Analysts have warned that further US-Israeli attacks on Iran are increasingly possible, with both sides preparing for a new confrontation despite the possibility of resorting to diplomacy.
“A new round of wars seems to be approaching,” Mortazavi said.
“Both sides appear to be preparing for a new confrontation, while escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz increase the risk of a broader conflict,” she said.
Mortazavi added that elections in the next two weeks in the United States and Israel could influence the timing of military action, but warned that the current trajectory appeared to favor escalation rather than negotiations.
Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, said Wednesday: “Everyone should know that any action against Iran has a cost. »
“If diplomacy can create this understanding, we prefer diplomacy, but if the war continues, Iran has the necessary means to support its response,” Rezaei said, according to the IRNA news agency.
Echoing Mortazavi, Khouri warned that another confrontation could be imminent, although he said U.S. threats could still be part of a negotiating strategy.
“I think imminent conflict is on the agenda, but I don’t know if war is the right word to use,” Khouri told Al Jazeera.
He said further strikes could target Iran’s critical infrastructure, including power grids, transportation systems, bridges and essential services.
“We will probably experience severe attacks on a few targets who will try to make life in Iran very difficult,” he said.
However, Khouri warned that Iran’s ability to withstand another major military offensive while inflicting comparable damage on its adversaries remained uncertain.
“It is unclear whether Iran has the capacity to withstand further major attacks against it,” he said, while stressing that Tehran was unlikely to give in to military pressure.
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